What is Tony Kelly's strike rate?

Tony Kelly has won 98 of 1,240 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tony Kelly do best at?

Perth by strike rate: 10 wins from 69 rides (14.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Tony Kelly ride most for?

Rebecca Menzies, with 306 rides since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (8.5%).

What is Tony Kelly's Fair A/E?

0.92, from 1,238 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Tony Kelly

1,240 rides in the lifetime window · 407 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Apr 2018 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

98–1,240

Wins / Runs

7.9%

Strike rate

n=1,240

323 (26%)

Placed

0.92

Fair A/E

n=1,238 · 0.79 incl. margin

−400.60

£1 level stake

n=1,240 at SP · −32.3%

£722k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 110 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (96 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,240 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Apr–May 28.8% when favourite Rebecca Menzies: 8.5% from 306 LTO winners: 15.6% Rode the favourite in 4% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Perth (14.5%, n=69), clear of the rider's 7.9% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.6% (n=96, Fair A/E 1.02), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4% (n=277, Fair A/E 0.60). Rebecca Menzies supplied 25% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.5%, A/E 0.82). The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (22.7%, n=44). The record read poorly in Class 6 — 1.5% over 67 rides, 6.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.38 across 133 rides (2.3% strike, −91.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The standout partner of the record was Halcyon Days (GB) — 5 wins from 21 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.7%−2.2

n=405 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −210.90

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.6%+7.7

n=96 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −12.52

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

4%−3.9

n=277 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −185.50

When favourite

28.8%

n=52 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −5.47

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.9%+0.0

n=908 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −260.00

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.8%−3.1

n=229 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −75.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.9

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 22.7% vs 7.9% · n=44

On last-time-out winners 15.6% vs 7.9% · n=96

With headgear back on 15.2% vs 7.9% · n=46

At Perth 14.5% vs 7.9% · n=69

Off a break of 180+ days 2.3% vs 7.9% · n=133

In Class 6 1.5% vs 7.9% · n=67

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 672 43 6.4% −243.76

Chase 473 52 11% −112.09

NH Flat 95 3 3.2% −44.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 410 30 7.3% −174.22

Soft 335 25 7.5% −109.75

Good to Soft 260 24 9.2% −20.21

Heavy 156 16 10.3% −29.67

Good to Firm 74 3 4.1% −61.75

Standard (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Sedgefield 154 11 7.1% −49.93

Hexham 127 13 10.2% −47.29

Kelso 93 10 10.8% −35.00

Wetherby 92 8 8.7% −5.75

Newcastle 83 6 7.2% −38.50

Perth 69 10 14.5% +14.25

Musselburgh 67 5 7.5% −6.60

Carlisle 64 6 9.4% −7.90

Catterick 62 5 8.1% −21.50

Ayr 57 4 7% −29.50

Galway 46 2 4.3% −20.00

Cartmel 42 3 7.1% −13.50

Market Rasen 30 1 3.3% −17.00

Ballinrobe 25 4 16% +19.00

Uttoxeter 22 0 0% −22.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 544 46 8.5% −162.74

Class 5 311 31 10% −71.86

Class 3 124 9 7.3% −57.50

Class 6 67 1 1.5% −46.00

Class 2 20 0 0% −20.00

Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 73 22 30.1% 1.07 +0.03

2nd–3rd fav 203 34 16.7% 1.01 −19.63

4th–6th fav 474 31 6.5% 0.84 −102.00

7th+ in betting 490 11 2.2% 0.71 −279.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.7% completed · 1,145 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 473 78.4% 17 18 66 0 1

Hurdle 672 87.4% 16 7 57 3 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Royal Macnab (IRE) 24 4 10 14 Jan 17

Halcyon Days (GB) 21 5 11 16 Apr 18

Chavoy (FR) 21 4 7 20 Oct 16

King Ali (IRE) 21 2 7 8 Aug 13

Mo Rouge (IRE) 19 2 6 28 Oct 17

Captain Mowbray (GB) 18 1 9 20 Apr 18

Amilliontimes (IRE) 18 5 11 11 Nov 17

Pistol Basc (FR) 18 3 7 29 Aug 15

The Thirsty Bricky (IRE) 18 2 10 9 Jan 14

Tomkevi (FR) 17 2 4 2 Feb 18

Pamak D'airy (FR) 16 2 7 22 Nov 16

Stand Clear (GB) 16 1 4 23 Aug 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 407 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

678101261177279

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardRebecca Menzies

25% of all rides
8.5% SR · A/E 0.82

TrainerRWSR£1

Rebecca Menzies 306 26 8.5% −94.03

Ferdy Murphy 149 12 8.1% −37.62

David Thompson 117 8 6.8% −51.63

Patrick G Kelly 91 7 7.7% +5.50

Jackie Stephen 79 9 11.4% −9.25

Henry Hogarth 78 7 9% −22.80

James Moffatt 50 5 10% −18.00

Chris Grant 46 4 8.7% −11.65

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£722k

Prize money

2014

Best season · 21 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

King Ali (IRE) — Guinness Sligo Handicap Hurdle Sligo · Aug 2012

£13,000

Balding Banker (IRE) — Totepool Racing's Biggest Supporter Handicap Chase Perth · Aug 2015 · Class 4

£9,747

Pain Au Chocolat (FR) — Expert Research At Vertem Handicap Chase Newcastle · Apr 2018 · Class 3

£8,151

Notable horses

Halcyon Days (GB) Amilliontimes (IRE) Royal Macnab (IRE) Chavoy (FR) Pistol Basc (FR) Alto Des Mottes (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Beneficial (GB) 13.2% · 5–38

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

King's Theatre (IRE) 6.9% · 2–29

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Sir Harry Lewis (USA) 3.6% · 1–28

Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,425 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 306.

Saint Des Saints (FR) 15.4% · 4–26

Progeny have won 15% of 5,359 runs since 2008 (643 horses).

Generous (IRE) 25% · 6–24

Progeny have won 10.7% of 3,332 runs since 2008 (251 horses).

Presenting (GB) 12.5% · 3–24

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,256 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,256 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 31 October 2005 to 20 April 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

20 Apr 18 Southwell Captain Mowbray (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Jigsaw Sports Branding Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good · 11 ran UR 6/1

16 Apr 18 Kelso Halcyon Days (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Manners Le Garcon D'or Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 17f · Heavy · 6 ran 2nd 9/1

15 Apr 18 Newcastle Valzan (FR)T: Rebecca Menzies Vertem Very Different Stockbrokers Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 5 ran PU 5/1

15 Apr 18 Newcastle (AW) Wagner Klass (FR)T: Rebecca Menzies New Capital Allowance Stand Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 16.5f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 150/1

14 Apr 18 Newcastle Pain Au Chocolat (FR)T: Rebecca Menzies Expert Research At Vertem Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20f · Heavy · 4 ran 1st 5/2

13 Apr 18 Sedgefield Animated Hero (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Betfred 'passionate About Rugby League' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Heavy · 7 ran PU 25/1

07 Apr 18 Kelso Halcyon Days (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Ashleybank Investments Reg & Betty Tweedie Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 17f · Heavy · 8 ran PU 16/1

19 Feb 18 Carlisle Pokora Du Lys (FR)T: Rebecca Menzies 188bet Casino Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25f · Heavy · 11 ran F 25/1

14 Feb 18 Musselburgh Royal Mandate (IRE)T: Rebecca Menzies Champions League Betting At 188Bet Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 11/2

14 Feb 18 Musselburgh Lady Clitico (IRE)T: Rebecca Menzies 188bet.co.uk Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran F 28/1

03 Feb 18 Wetherby Pain Au Chocolat (FR)T: Rebecca Menzies Totescoop6 Play Today Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 19.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 2nd 33/1

02 Feb 18 Catterick Tomkevi (FR)T: Rebecca Menzies Racing UK Free Trial Jump To It Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier)Class 3 · 25.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 20/1

02 Feb 18 Catterick Black Kettle (IRE)T: Rebecca Menzies Racing UK Free For A Month Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 7/1

01 Feb 18 Towcester Dulce Panem (FR)T: Rebecca Menzies Visit Our Shop 'sports Mayfair' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 10/1

31 Jan 18 Ayr Valzan (FR)T: Rebecca Menzies Only 1,000 Racing UK Free Trials Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20.5f · Heavy · 7 ran PU 10/1

28 Jan 18 Sedgefield Azert De Coeur (FR)T: Rebecca Menzies Happy Birthday Christine Halliday Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Soft · 14 ran 9th 50/1

28 Jan 18 Sedgefield Roman Numeral (IRE)T: David Thompson Roflow Supports NE Youth Raceday Selling HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 16/1

26 Jan 18 Doncaster Captain Mowbray (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Sky Bet Extra Place Races Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 8/1

20 Jan 18 Haydock Halcyon Days (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Watch Racing Uk In Hd Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 16.5f · Heavy · 5 ran PU 11/1

19 Jan 18 Musselburgh Royal Mandate (IRE)T: Rebecca Menzies Gerry's 50th Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 10/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tony Kelly's strike rate?: Tony Kelly has won 98 of 1,240 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tony Kelly do best at?: Perth by strike rate: 10 wins from 69 rides (14.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Tony Kelly ride most for?: Rebecca Menzies, with 306 rides since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (8.5%).
What is Tony Kelly's Fair A/E?: 0.92, from 1,238 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.