1:15 Aintree
This Class 4 maiden hurdle at Aintree over 2m4f on good to soft ground features a field of ten with no standout standout on official ratings but several lightly raced or progressive types according to the KTB numbers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Order On Time on 63, with Gimarias, Brace For Landing and Gili Island all in the high 50s, suggesting an open-looking contest where connections, trip suitability and run style will be key. The race is a maiden under GBB rules and the overall KTB intelligence points to a tactical affair in which those who can settle close to the pace may hold an edge.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with medium confidence, and there is no obvious front-runner in the field. Several runners including Gili Island, Le Roi Remi, Allfor and Petit Galet like to race prominently or handy, which should ensure a decent enough gallop without it being truly contested early. This shape is likely to suit those ridden close to the pace or in mid-division, while hold-up performers such as Gimarias will need to time their late efforts well. The key question is whether any of the prominent runners can dictate matters or whether the race will fragment coming down the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Order On Time KTB Selection63/100
Order On Time arrives with the highest KTB Fit Score of 63 and is the clear selection. He showed promise when winning on debut over 2m and then finishing second next time out, with recent form figures of 21-. The yard has a 12% strike rate at Aintree from 772 runs which is below their 23% at other courses while Sam Twiston-Davies posts an 11% strike rate here from 313 rides below his 16% elsewhere. He steps up in trip today with a positive on this good to soft ground having scored once from once on it, though data confidence remains low given the small sample and the dam having had one other runner that did not win. Overall he shapes as the one to beat on what he has shown so far.
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2Gimarias60/100
Gimarias is rated a useful performer on his official rating of 96 and has shown steady progress in novice hurdles with form figures of /F753-. He steps up in trip today having already placed once at this distance without winning and is usually held up, producing his effort late. The yard has a 32% strike rate at Aintree from 31 runs which is above their record elsewhere while the jockey's 8% strike rate here sits in line with his overall figure. He is unproven on good to soft ground which adds a note of caution, as does the dam having produced two other runners that failed to win. Still, his official mark and progression make him a serious player in a race of this nature.
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3Brace For Landing58/100
Brace For Landing is a smart performer on his official rating of 116 and has shown fair placed form at this level with figures of /3550-. He steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow over 2m on his last three starts, while the family record is modest with a half-brother to Come On Gruff who won three times from eleven runs. The Skelton team and Harry both operate at a 15% strike rate at Aintree and he is typically settled in midfield. He has been placed once from two runs on good to soft without winning, and drops in class here which could help him get back on track. His official figure gives him a solid chance if the longer trip suits.
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4Gili Island58/100
Gili Island is a lightly raced 4-year-old with just three runs behind him and recent form of 49-4. He steps up in trip to 2m4f today which asks a fresh question while the going remains unknown from such a small sample having failed to win or place in his sole run on good to soft. The yard holds a 15% strike rate at Aintree from 366 runs in line with his overall record and the jockey is 3-18 here. He is usually raced handily on or close to the lead and drops in class, with the family featuring a half-brother to Mr Incredible who won twice from seventeen runs. His inexperience is balanced by the drop in grade and prominent run style.
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5The Two Four57/100
The Two Four is a full brother to Saddle Her Up who won once from nine runs and comes from a dam who has already produced one winner from four foals. With no racecourse form and an official rating yet to be published the assessment stays firmly on pedigree and connections, though his recent form line of 2- indicates a promising start. Christian Williams has a 7% strike rate at Aintree from 28 runs while Jack Tudor records 15% from 40 rides here. By Westerner, he has a 12% overall win rate in that sire line from 11822 runners. He remains an interesting prospect on breeding in a race where several others also have limited hurdling experience.
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6Titi Montmartre55/100
Titi Montmartre is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on and recent form figures of 1-. The yard has a 17% strike rate at Aintree from 24 runs in line with their record elsewhere while Sean Houlihan has yet to score from 13 rides at the track. The dam has produced two other runners without a win between them. He is a course and distance winner who is proven on this going at this track.
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7Le Roi Remi54/100
Le Roi Remi showed fair promise when winning on debut over 2m1f before finishing seventh here on his latest start with form figures of 167-. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while the yard records a 7% strike rate at Aintree from 15 runs and the jockey is 0 from 16 rides at the track. Data confidence is low so this lightly raced profile needs to be treated with caution. He has won once from three runs on good to soft and usually races handily.
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8Allfor51/100
Allfor is a smart performer who showed useful ability when placed on debut before running to a similar level in two subsequent starts with form of 2/624-. He drops back in trip today with first-time headgear fitted while the yard has a 0% strike rate at Aintree from 15 runs and the jockey is operating at 5% here from 20 rides. Half-brother to Burton Boru who won once from four runs, he remains lightly raced overall with only three career runs. He is unproven on good to soft.
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9Petit Galet47/100
Petit Galet showed little on his sole start over a much shorter trip with form figures of 0/ and now tries 2m4f for the first time in first-time headgear. The yard has no recorded runners at Aintree while James Best operates at a 6% strike rate here from 31 rides in line with his record elsewhere. Data confidence is low and this is a lightly-raced profile that needs to be treated with caution. He usually races handily though with limited evidence.
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10Measure Of A Man42/100
Measure Of A Man is a newcomer whose assessment rests on pedigree and sales background rather than any racecourse evidence with form figures of P2-. The yard records a 6% strike rate at Aintree from 18 runs while Brian Hughes is on 9% here from 351 rides below his 15% at other tracks. With low data confidence and no official rating yet his prospects remain unknown. By Sholokhov he has a 12% overall win rate in that sire line from 4375 runners.
KTB verdict
Order On Time is the KTB Selection and sets a clear standard on what he has shown in two starts so far, with the step up to 2m4f appearing within range on good to soft ground. His ability to settle close to the pace should be an asset in a muddling tactical race, and while the yard's record at Aintree is below par the overall profile remains appealing. Gimarias looks the most obvious danger on his official rating and progression, particularly if he can land a blow from off the pace. Brace For Landing is another to consider with his higher mark and Skelton support, while Gili Island and The Two Four add further depth on their respective lightly raced profiles and connections. The race should be competitive but the selection has the clearest path on current KTB readings.
KTB Selection Order On Time
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:03am, 25 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Order On Time | 5/4 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Gimarias | 40/1 | Bet Victor, 1:03am |
| Brace For Landing | 7/2 | William Hill, 1:03am |
| Gili Island | 100/1 | 7Bet, 1:03am |
| The Two Four | 20/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Titi Montmartre | 13/2 | Midnite, 1:03am |
| Le Roi Remi | 9/2 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Allfor | 11/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:03am |
| Petit Galet | 125/1 | Bet Victor, 1:03am |
| Measure Of A Man | 14/1 | William Hill, 1:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:15 Aintree. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Aintree racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Aintree results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Aintree racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Order On Time has the highest KTB Fit Score of 63.
Who is the KTB Selection for this race?
Order On Time.
How many runners like to race prominently or in mid-division?
Four runners are noted as prominent (Gili Island, Le Roi Remi, Allfor and Petit Galet) and one as typically settling in midfield (Brace For Landing).
Which horse is proven at the course and distance on this going?
Titi Montmartre is a course and distance winner proven on this going at this track.
What is the pace shape for the race and how does it influence runners?
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence, suiting those ridden close to the pace in the absence of an obvious front-runner.
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