1:27 Chepstow
This Class 3 EBF Mares' NH Novices' Hurdle qualifier over 2m3f100y at Chepstow on good to soft ground brings together a field of seven lightly raced mares and fillies. The KTB Fit Scores range from 57 down to 41, reflecting a race where previous winners and placed performers meet unexposed types stepping up markedly in trip or class. Princess Day heads the KTB rankings as the selection having already shown an affinity for this track and surface, while the strong pace anticipated could play a significant role in how the race unfolds.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, the pace shape is strongly likely to be on the fast side and could collapse in the latter stages, favouring those ridden with patience. Princess Day tends to make the running or race prominently, while Bath Taverness and Kamille Au Kanada are also front-runners who could contest the early lead. Midnight Doyen, Divine Diva and Connells Cross are held-up types who would benefit if the pace does indeed prove too strong, posing the key question of whether any prominent racer can sustain the gallop or if the race will fall into the lap of a closer.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Princess Day KTB Selection57/100
Princess Day has won both her starts in novice company and put up a creditable effort when stepped up in grade last time out. She has already shown her liking for this Chepstow track, where she is one from one, and for good to soft ground on which she has two wins from three starts. The longer trip is an unknown at this stage, yet she drops in class and is taken to cope. Jeremy Scott has an 11% strike rate at Chepstow from 216 runs with an A/E of 0.96, while Lorcan Williams posts a 14% strike rate from 142 rides here with an A/E of 1.06. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, she could set a strong gallop in a race where the pace is expected to be strong.
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2Midnight Doyen53/100
Midnight Doyen has shown fair placed form across his four runs but failed to build on that when fifth here over shorter on his latest start. He now steps up markedly in trip which asks a fresh question of him. The yard and jockey both hold solid 11% records at Chepstow. As a hold-up performer who usually produces his effort late, he is the type to benefit if the strong pace collapses in the closing stages. Trainer Jeremy Scott has an 11% strike rate at the track from 216 runs with an A/E of 0.96, while Rex Dingle is also on 11% from 83 rides with an A/E of 0.98. He was placed on two of three starts on good to soft but has no win on that surface.
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3Bath Taverness51/100
Bath Taverness showed little on his first two starts before winning a weak novice hurdle at the third attempt and then unseating early last time. He was well held when fifth on his only visit to this track and now steps up markedly in trip as a lightly raced 5-year-old. Trainer David Evans has a 12% strike rate from 964 runs at Chepstow while Robert Dunne sits on an 8% strike rate from 178 rides here. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could be involved early in what is likely to be a strong gallop. He has had one run on good to soft, without winning or placing.
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4Kamille Au Kanada49/100
Kamille Au Kanada has recent form of 142-1 which shows clear ability and a ready recent win. Dropping back in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with only three career runs. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Chepstow but this remains a low-confidence profile given the small sample. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, she could be prominent in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. Anthony Honeyball has a 14% strike rate at the track from 140 runs with an A/E of 0.9, while Sam Twiston-Davies is on 16% from 371 rides with an A/E of 0.85. She has no runs on good to soft and no course form on record.
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5Divine Diva44/100
Divine Diva won on debut then ran no sort of race when favourite next time, leaving her with just two runs on the board. The yard has a 12% strike rate here from 365 runs while Harry Skelton posts 13% from 268 rides, both solid but unspectacular. She steps up markedly in trip today and remains low-confidence given the small sample. As a hold-up type she could be suited by the strong pace likely.
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6Walkinthemournes42/100
Bred to stay well and cost plenty as a 3yo, Walkinthemournes is a debutant from a yard that has been quiet with its newcomers lately. The trainer's modest 7% strike-rate at Chepstow from 94 runs and the jockey's 5% from 267 rides offer little encouragement on this stiff track. With no racecourse form to go on the whole profile remains very much unknown.
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7Connells Cross41/100
Connells Cross has shown ability in three runs, winning two of them, though the small sample means his level is hard to pin down. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is another unknown. The yard have an 8% strike-rate at Chepstow from 24 runs and the jockey is 9% from 161 rides here. As a hold-up performer he could be favoured if the strong pace does collapse late.
KTB verdict
Princess Day is the KTB Selection. She has already shown her liking for this track and for good to soft ground, has winning form in novice company, and drops in class while her prominent run-style could see her set or share a strong gallop. The longer trip is the main unknown. Midnight Doyen is the most obvious danger as a hold-up type who could pick up the pieces if the pace collapses, while Bath Taverness and Kamille Au Kanada bring front-running profiles and recent wins of their own into the equation.
KTB Selection Princess Day
This is the narrative read of the 1:27 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Chepstow racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won at this track?
Princess Day is one from one at Chepstow.
How many front-runners are in the field and what does that mean for the pace?
Princess Day, Bath Taverness and Kamille Au Kanada are all front-runners, supporting the assessment that a strong pace is likely which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which horses are stepping up markedly in trip?
Midnight Doyen, Bath Taverness, Divine Diva and Connells Cross are all stepping up markedly in trip.
Who wears first-time headgear?
Connells Cross runs in first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Chepstow in this race?
Anthony Honeyball has a 14% strike rate at Chepstow from 140 runs.
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