2:02 Chepstow
A competitive Class 5 handicap hurdle over 2m3f100y at Chepstow on good to soft ground features a field of 13 where the KTB Fit scores identify a clear top pick on 72 but a fairly bunched group behind on 56 to 37. Most of the principals arrive with recent placed form or wins in the book yet carry questions about trip, ground or consistency. The overall numbers point to a race that will be decided by which horse handles the step up or down in distance best while coping with a steadily-run affair.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape lacking a leader and confidence rated medium, the race is expected to be steadily-run and tactical rather than strongly contested early on. Most of the field, including the top five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, though Lady Blackmore is the notable prominent runner who usually races handily or close to the lead. Being handy could pay in these conditions, posing the key question of whether any horse can quicken off a steady gallop or if the late runners will find enough room to mount their challenges in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1My Boy Beasty KTB Selection72/100
My Boy Beasty is a useful performer who showed fair form when last seen over 2m. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Chepstow, the trainer recording a 20% strike rate with an A/E of 1.5 from 10 runs and the jockey a 17% strike rate with an A/E of 1.6 from 24 rides. He drops in class from an OR of 97 having last posted form figures of 407-. Usually held up and producing his effort late, though with limited evidence and low confidence in that run-style, he represents the KTB Selection.
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2Makinbecon56/100
Makinbecon is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and recent form that includes two wins and a third from his last six starts. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried while making his first appearance at Chepstow on ground he has only tackled once without placing. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate from 13 runs here with an A/E of 2.08 while the jockey is 9% from 45 rides with an A/E of 0.69. From an OR of 83 and with form figures of 131665 he is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence in that style.
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3Midnight Pass54/100
Midnight Pass is a useful performer on the balance of ratings and race history but arrives in modest recent form having failed to complete in three of his last five starts. He steps up in trip today with no experience of good to soft ground so both those elements are unknowns. The yard has a solid 10 percent strike rate at Chepstow from a big sample of 164 runs with an A/E of 0.94 while James Bowen is operating at 12 percent here with an A/E of 0.82 from 139 rides. Racing from an OR of 90 with form figures of -P4P36 he is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
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4One Cool Dreamer51/100
One Cool Dreamer is a useful performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning. Steps up markedly in trip today having last run over a mile and a half, which asks a fresh question of him on pedigree and race style. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.49 from 139 runs is a negative while the jockey has a more respectable record here of 8% with an A/E of 1.09 from 178 rides. From an OR of 93 and form figures of 425- he is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence.
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5Lady Blackmore51/100
Lady Blackmore is a fair mare who has shown consistent placed form without winning. She acts on this sort of trip though she has yet to land a race at it, and the first-time headgear is now applied in a bid to sharpen her up. Trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.43 from 71 runs while the jockey sits on a 9% record here with an A/E of 0.82 from 161 rides. Dropping in class from an OR of 81 with form figures of 25567- she usually races handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence.
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6Sweet Honey B50/100
Sweet Honey B is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and race history but has been well held in both starts this season. She drops back in trip to a distance at which she has placed once in three runs, though the small overall sample makes her hard to pin down. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 26 runs here with an A/E of 0.8 while the jockey is operating at 4% from 197 rides with an A/E of 0.55.
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7Ugo Bingo50/100
Ugo Bingo is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year without winning. Steps up in trip today having already won at this distance in the past, and his record on good to soft ground reads well with two wins and a further three places from six starts. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Chepstow, the yard at 7% with an A/E of 0.6 from 94 runs and the jockey at 5% with an A/E of 0.5 from 267 rides.
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8Little Pi49/100
Little Pi is a useful performer who has been consistent this year with two wins and multiple placed efforts. Drops back to a trip he has won over before while his record on good to soft ground reads a solid two wins and five places from nine starts. Trainer is still seeking a first Chepstow winner from five runs with an A/E of 0 while the jockey has a respectable 17% strike rate here from 24 rides with an A/E of 0.85.
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9Kates Choice49/100
Kates Choice is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a third on her last two starts. She has shown she handles good to soft ground and has placed at this trip, though she has never won over it. The yard's modest 2% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.4 from 276 runs is a clear negative.
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10Amberelli48/100
Amberelli is a fair sort who has shown steady placed form without landing a big one, including a respectable fourth on return last season. The step up from 2m to 2m3f today asks a fresh question while the lightly-raced profile means his ability on good-to-soft ground remains unknown. Trainer Martin Keighley operates at a 10% strike rate from 164 runs here with an A/E of 0.94 and jockey Freddie Keighley is 10% from 10 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.66.
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11Italian Spirit44/100
Italian Spirit is a fair 10-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. He has been competitive on good to soft ground with two places from six starts yet drops back in distance today after his last run over 2m5f. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 45 runs at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.82 while the jockey is still seeking her first win from six rides here with an A/E of 0.
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12V Power43/100
V Power is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history yet has failed to place in four runs at Chepstow and three on good to soft ground. The yard records a modest 6% strike rate here from 54 runs with an A/E of 0.65 while Tabitha Worsley is still seeking her first win from 35 rides at the track with an A/E of 0. Stepping up markedly in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question of a horse whose recent efforts have been poor.
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13Ker d'Oudairies37/100
Ker d'Oudairies is a fair performer who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts and now drops back in trip as a fresh question. The yard's modest record at Chepstow is a negative with a 3% strike rate and A/E of 0.42 from 141 runs but Jack Tudor brings a solid 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.87 from 134 rides. Data confidence is high yet the small overall sample means plenty remains to be proven.
KTB verdict
My Boy Beasty stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer who showed fair form when last seen over 2m, he drops in class while the yard and jockey both have solid records at Chepstow that add to his appeal. The step up markedly in trip asks a fresh question yet his overall profile and the trainer-jockey combination at the track give him the strongest chance. Main dangers are likely to come from Makinbecon with his recent wins in the book, Midnight Pass despite his modest recent form, and the consistent One Cool Dreamer and Lady Blackmore who bring their own respective merits on trip and with first-time headgear.
KTB Selection My Boy Beasty
This is the narrative read of the 2:02 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Chepstow racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and wearing first-time headgear?
Lady Blackmore is dropping in class from an OR of 81 and is fitted with first-time headgear.
How many of the principals are usually held up?
Four of the top five principals are usually held up: My Boy Beasty, Makinbecon, Midnight Pass and One Cool Dreamer.
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Chepstow among the principals?
My Boy Beasty's trainer has a 20% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.5 from 10 runs.
Who is the only prominent runner among the top five and what is their going record?
Lady Blackmore is the only prominent runner among the top five; she has had 1 run on good to soft with no win or place.
Which horse steps up markedly in trip having last run over a mile and a half?
One Cool Dreamer steps up markedly in trip having last run over a mile and a half.
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