1:27 Uttoxeter
This Class 4 British EBF National Hunt Novices' Hurdle qualifier at Uttoxeter over 1m7f168y on good ground brings together a field of 11 with plenty of debutants and lightly raced types. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Supreme George on 56, just ahead of Turbocharged on 55 and Lunar Trix on 52, indicating a race where experience and yard form will carry significant weight. With several runners unproven on the surface or at the track, the KTB numbers highlight the blend of proven ability in a couple and the potential in others making their first or second starts.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with medium confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner enjoying an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in late. Equi Libre is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and looks set to take that role, while the majority of the principals, including Supreme George, Turbocharged and Lunar Trix, are held-up types who will be produced late. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will give Equi Libre enough of an edge or if one of the stronger-held-up performers can bridge the gap on good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Supreme George KTB Selection56/100
Supreme George arrives with an official rating of 107 and recent form figures of 321-55. A smart performer who has won four times at today's trip from eight attempts, he showed useful placed form last season although his recent efforts have been modest. He was well held when fifth on his only previous visit to Uttoxeter. The Donald McCain yard holds a solid 13% strike rate at the track from 730 runs with an A/E of 0.84, while Theo Gillard operates at 9% from 105 rides with an A/E of 0.82. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has two wins from 12 starts on good ground with four places. As the KTB selection he brings the strongest balance of proven ability at the trip despite the modest recent efforts.
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2Turbocharged55/100
Turbocharged is a 5-year-old with form figures of 31- and only two runs on the board. He showed promise when winning on debut over this trip and backed that up with a solid third next time. The Dan Skelton team are both in strong form at Uttoxeter, the trainer recording a 23% strike rate from 644 runs with an A/E of 1 while Harry Skelton posts a 29% strike rate from 505 rides with an A/E of 1.09. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no runs on good ground and remains unproven on the surface. With the overall picture still limited he has to be treated with some caution despite the yard's excellent local record.
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3Lunar Trix52/100
Lunar Trix is a 4-year-old with form figures of 1- and no racecourse form to go on as a debutant over hurdles. A course and distance winner on the Flat, he is proven on this going at this track and trip. The Stuart Edmunds yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 149 runs with an A/E of 0.75, though jockey Charlie Hammond is on a 6% strike rate from 188 rides with an A/E of 0.52. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 20% strike rate with an A/E of 1.10 and positive LSP of +£26.44. Pedigree and sales background will carry most of the weight here given the low data confidence on his jumping debut.
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4Gift From Derrick49/100
Gift From Derrick is a 4-year-old debutant by Frontiersman out of a useful bumper winner who is a half-sister to smart chaser Minella Indo. Sold for 62,000 euros as a three-year-old, he now joins the Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill yard which operates at a solid 14% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 87 runs with an A/E of 1.05. Jonjo O'Neill Jr. has a 12% strike rate from 178 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.65. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 15% strike rate with an A/E of 0.85. This remains a leap into the unknown on his first start over hurdles with no course win on record.
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5Equi Libre46/100
Equi Libre is a 4-year-old with form figures of 03-P and has shown little in three starts to date, being pulled up on his most recent outing. Usually a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he holds the key to the expected lone-leader shape. The Dan Skelton yard has a solid 23% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 644 runs with an A/E of 1, though Tristan Durrell is operating at just 6% from 53 rides here with an A/E of 0.54. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.98. Trip and ground both remain unproven with such a small base after one run on good with no win or place.
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6Shah44/100
Shah is a 5-year-old debutant with recent form figures of 5-21 but very little public form to go on so the assessment rests mainly on his pedigree and the yard's record. Connections have a modest 7% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 94 runs with an A/E of 0.74 and neither the trainer nor jockey Jonathan England has set the track alight here with respective A/E figures of 0.74 and 0.75.
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7She Can Run44/100
She Can Run showed only modest promise when sixth on debut over 2m here last month and now drops back in trip which poses a fresh question. The Sam Allwood yard has a 1% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 69 runs with an A/E of 0.23 while jockey Brendan Powell has a solid 11% record from 201 rides with an A/E of 0.92; after one run on good with no win or place this remains a low-confidence read given the tiny sample.
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8Elmsford43/100
Elmsford is a debutant whose assessment rests on pedigree and sales background plus the Ben Pauling yard which holds a 13% strike rate from 184 runs at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 0.73. Jockey Elliott England has only three rides at the track with a 0% strike rate so the sample is too small to judge.
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9Wings of Ayrton43/100
Wings of Ayrton is lightly raced with just one run in the last year and showed fair placed form over today's trip on his only start, though the small sample makes it hard to be certain about his true level or how he will handle today's conditions. The Ben Pauling yard has a 13% strike rate from 184 runs here while jockey Callum Pritchard is operating at 5% from 20 rides; he has been placed once from one run on good ground.
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10Cool Ocean41/100
Cool Ocean is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The Sam Allwood yard has a modest 1% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 69 runs with an A/E of 0.23 while Toby Wynne has a fair 7% record from 71 rides here with an A/E of 0.75; with low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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11Scopic39/100
Scopic is a limited performer with an official rating of 59 and form figures of 6-8P60 who has failed to complete in three of his five starts and showed little spark when well beaten on his latest two outings. Stepping up in class and dropping back in trip today having achieved nothing in two previous runs at this distance, he tries first-time headgear; both trainer and jockey have modest but established records at Uttoxeter after five runs on good with no win or place.
KTB verdict
Supreme George is the KTB selection. He is a smart performer who has won four times at today's trip from eight attempts and showed useful placed form last season, and he brings the highest KTB Fit score along with the most pertinent experience at the distance despite modest recent efforts and a lacklustre run when fifth on his only previous visit to Uttoxeter. The McCain yard's solid record at the track adds further substance to his claims as a held-up performer who should be suited by the way the race is expected to unfold. His main dangers are Turbocharged, who showed promise on his first two starts and benefits from the excellent Skelton team at this venue, and Lunar Trix, whose course-and-distance prowess on the Flat and yard record make him interesting on hurdles debut.
KTB Selection Supreme George
This is the narrative read of the 1:27 Uttoxeter. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Uttoxeter racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Uttoxeter results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Uttoxeter racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Equi Libre is the only confirmed front-runner and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Supreme George recorded at today's trip?
Supreme George has won four times at today's trip from eight attempts.
What is Lunar Trix's course and distance record on the Flat?
Lunar Trix is a course and distance winner and proven on this going at this track and trip.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Uttoxeter among those represented?
Dan Skelton has a 23% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 644 runs with an A/E of 1.
What headgear is Scopic wearing for the first time?
Scopic is trying first-time headgear.
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