8:30 Kempton (AW)
This Class 6 handicap over a mile at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a field of 13 limited performers, many of whom have been knocking on the door without consistent success. The KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top horse on recent course form while the rest are bunched together in the low-to-mid 50s, underlining a race where solid recent efforts and course knowledge will carry more weight than raw ability. With the pace shape pointing to a lone leader enjoying an uncontested advantage, the ability to produce a late burst from off the pace or make the running effectively will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will get an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those coming from behind to overcome. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit order, are held-up types who produce their effort late, which sets up a race where the leader could get first run and the closers will need to find a clear path in the straight. The key question is whether any of the prominent runners can get across to challenge the leader early or whether the race will be decided by which of the held-up brigade can close with most effect off a steady gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Snooker McCrew KTB Selection68/100
Snooker McCrew arrives in excellent recent order, having won both his starts at this track including a recent success over course and distance. He drops back to his winning trip of 1m after a longer run last time and holds solid recent form in this grade despite being limited on overall ability. The trainer boasts a 100% strike rate at Kempton from a small sample with an A/E of 12, while the jockey has a 21% strike rate at the track from 14 rides with an A/E of 1.71. Unproven on standard to slow going, he is drawn in stall 12 and will be held up to produce his effort late. His course record of one win from one start is a major plus in a race where plenty of his rivals have struggled to win here.
-
2Mbappe52/100
Mbappe is a limited horse who has been largely out of form this year, producing a string of modest efforts. He still holds a respectable record at this track with two wins from 14 starts and has also won at this trip and on this surface, recording two wins from 13 runs on standard to slow going. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Kempton from 523 runs with an A/E of 0.95, while the jockey has a 16% strike rate from 451 rides with an A/E of 0.95. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 3 and will look to come from off the pace. His recent form figures of 676570 reflect his current modest level but the course record offers some hope.
-
3Divine Wish51/100
Divine Wish is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on this track but remains winless after four runs here, with placings of 14th, 4th, 5th and 4th. Recent form is ordinary, shown by figures of 5-4540, and the step up to an untested 1m asks a fresh question today while he is dropping in class. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Kempton from 359 runs with an A/E of 0.86, and the jockey has a 10% strike rate from 1016 rides with an A/E of 0.95. Usually held up with high confidence, he has had three runs on standard to slow going without winning or placing. The combination of ordinary recent form and the trip question makes this a stiff task.
-
4Violet Goldsmith50/100
Violet Goldsmith has shown fair placed form at this track and trip, with a second from two runs here, but her recent record is patchy and she has looked limited in Class 6 company, reflected in form figures of 021226. She steps back up to 1m having won at the distance earlier in the year, though her sole run on standard to slow was poor. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Kempton from 835 runs with an A/E of 0.84, and the jockey has a 6% strike rate from 159 rides with an A/E of 0.65. Usually held up with high confidence from stall 7, she will look to produce her effort late. The patchy recent form and modest strike rates from connections limit her appeal.
-
5Our Dagger49/100
Our Dagger is a limited performer who has won once here from two starts on this track and has a win from two runs on standard to slow going. He steps up to a trip he has won over before but arrives in modest form, as shown by figures of 600-57. The trainer has a 1% strike rate at Kempton from 83 runs with an A/E of 0.18, while the jockey has an 11% strike rate from 325 rides with an A/E of 0.94. Usually held up with high confidence from stall 5, he will be among those looking to close late. The modest current form and poor trainer record at the track make this a difficult assignment despite his course success.
-
6Blue Samuna48/100
Blue Samuna is a limited performer who has shown little in six starts since debut and was well held in a 7f handicap here last time. He steps up to 1m for the first time today, which at least asks a fresh question, and the trainer has a solid 17% strike rate at Kempton from 118 runs with an A/E of 1.18. Usually held up with high confidence from stall 9, he has had one run on standard to slow without placing.
-
7Chico Dulce46/100
Chico Dulce is a limited performer who has shown his best efforts at this track with a placed effort and three other respectable finishes from four runs here. He has won over today's trip but is 0-5 on this type of ground and the trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.56. Usually held up with high confidence from stall 1, which could help him get a good position early, he has had five runs on standard to slow without placing.
-
8Brave New World46/100
Brave New World is a limited performer who has failed to place in five starts and looks no better than modest on recent form. He has been well held in three runs at this track and is now dropping back from 1m3f to a trip he has tried only once before without success. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Kempton from 681 runs with an A/E of 0.91. Usually held up with medium confidence, he has had two runs on standard to slow without placing.
-
9Forca Timao44/100
Forca Timao is a limited performer who has been running to a similar modest level for some time. He has tried this trip six times without success and now drops back from 1m2f while drawn wide in stall 13. The trainer has a 2% strike rate from 95 runs at the track with an A/E of 0.33. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, he has had five runs on standard to slow without placing.
-
10Pitney41/100
Pitney is a limited performer who has been around a bit and has shown only modest form of late. He has placed on this surface without winning and has scored once at today's trip, yet his three runs at Kempton have produced no better than a fourth. The yard has a 5% strike rate here from 990 runs with an A/E of 0.74. Usually held up with high confidence from stall 11, he has been placed once from six runs on standard to slow.
-
11Makes Me Wonder39/100
Makes Me Wonder is a limited performer who has shown little spark since a pair of placed efforts on this track in the summer. The yard maintains a solid record here yet this one looks vulnerable from stall 2 while dropping in class, and the 5 lb claimer has a modest strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.39. Usually held up with high confidence, he has had one run on standard to slow without placing and the recent form and overall class read suggest another struggle is likely.
-
12Jackson Street36/100
Jackson Street is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and looks stretched by this 1m trip for the first time in a while having been unsuccessful in seven previous attempts. He has run respectably in both starts at Kempton without threatening to win. The trainer has a 5% strike rate from 990 runs at the track with an A/E of 0.74. Usually held up with high confidence, he has been placed once from three runs on standard to slow.
-
13Celtic John35/100
Celtic John is a limited performer who has been placed once in seven runs at Kempton without winning. He has shown bits of form on this trip but is 0-6 on standard to slow going and has not been placed in his last three starts on it. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.86. Usually held up with high confidence from stall 4, he has had six runs on standard to slow without winning or placing.
KTB verdict
Snooker McCrew stands out as the KTB Selection on the back of his two course wins, including a recent success, and solid recent form in this grade. He drops back to his ideal 1m trip where he has already proved himself at this track, and the combination of the trainer's perfect strike rate here and the jockey's strong record at Kempton adds further layers of confidence. While he remains unproven on standard to slow going, his ability to produce a late effort from a held-up position should suit the expected pace shape. The main dangers are Mbappe, who has a good course record and wins on this surface, and Violet Goldsmith, who has shown placed form at this track and trip despite patchy recent efforts. Our Dagger and Divine Wish add further depth but look less convincing on current form and trainer records at the venue.
KTB Selection Snooker McCrew
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does Snooker McCrew head the KTB Fit ratings?
Snooker McCrew heads the KTB Fit ratings with 68 because he has won both starts at this track including a recent success and drops back to his winning trip of 1m after a longer run last time, while holding solid recent form in this grade.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one clear front-runner with little to pressure it and likely an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
What are the course records of the top two in the KTB Fit order?
Snooker McCrew is 1 from 1 at Kempton, while Mbappe is 2 from 14 at the track.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Kempton among those with runners?
Max Comley has a 100% strike rate at Kempton from one run with an A/E of 12, while James Owen has a 17% strike rate from 118 runs with an A/E of 1.18.
How many of the field are held-up types?
Eleven of the 13 runners are described as held up, usually producing their effort late, with only Forca Timao running prominently as a front-runner.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies