1:30 Ascot
The Qatar Racing British Champions Long Distance Cup is a Group 1 highlight at Ascot on good ground over 1m7f209y, featuring a competitive field of ten smart performers. KTB rates Gregory and Daiquiri Bay joint-top on Fit scores of 65, with the selection carrying an official rating of 115 and recent form of 5/7-11 that underlines his current wellbeing. The race brings together several course winners and in-form types stepping up in trip or class, with the overall KTB numbers pointing to a strong test where recent course-and-distance prowess and stamina will be at a premium.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as two or more habitual front-runners are present and likely to set a searching gallop that could cause the race to collapse late. Gregory tends to make the running or race prominently from draw 4, while Quickthorn is another who goes forward from stall 1 and Queenstown usually races handily. This shape is expected to favour the hold-up performers such as Daiquiri Bay, Mount Atlas, Amiloc, Opportunity, Highwayman and Amelia Earhart, who can come from off the pace to capitalise if the leaders fold. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms or if the closers will sweep through in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Gregory KTB Selection65/100
Gregory is a smart performer with an official rating of 115 and recent form figures of 5/7-11 that confirm he is in good heart. He has won both starts at this trip, including a course success at Ascot where he has a record of one win from two runs. The six-year-old acts on good ground, with five wins from eight starts on it, and is drawn in stall 4 as a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace. John and Thady Gosden have a 14% strike rate at Ascot from 320 runs while James Doyle is a positive booking with a 12% strike rate at the track from 639 rides. Overall this looks a suitable assignment for a horse with solid course-and-distance credentials.
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2Daiquiri Bay65/100
Daiquiri Bay is a smart performer rated 110 who arrives in excellent order after three straight wins with recent form of 53-111. The four-year-old has already shown his liking for Ascot with a course victory from three runs and handles good ground well, recording one win from four starts on it with four placed efforts. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 9, he steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question. Alan King has a 13% strike rate at Ascot from 464 runs and teams up with William Buick, who has a 14% strike rate at the track from 873 rides. This consistent type could be ideally placed if the strong pace collapses late.
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3Caballo de Mar63/100
Caballo de Mar is a smart performer with an official rating of 117 and recent form of 210411 that shows two wins in his last four starts. He has run well at Ascot on two of his three visits, finishing placed without winning, and acts on good ground with three wins from six starts on it. Usually held up from draw 6, the drop back from 2m4f raises a question while the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Ascot from 71 runs is a negative. George Scott teams up with Oisin Murphy, who has an 11% strike rate at the track from 554 rides. The five-year-old remains a contender on his best days despite the mixed signals.
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4Mount Atlas62/100
Mount Atlas is a smart performer rated 112 who has won two of his three starts at this track. Recent form of -22313 includes three placed efforts from his last five runs and he handles good ground, though with only one win from six starts on it. Usually held up from draw 3, dropping back from 2m today asks a fresh question while Andrew Balding's modest 9% strike rate at Ascot from 1064 runs is worth noting. The five-year-old partners P. J. McDonald, who has a 7% strike rate at the track from 92 rides. His course record makes him interesting if the race shape plays to hold-up types.
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5Amiloc61/100
Amiloc is a smart performer rated 114 with a course-and-distance win to his name and two wins from four starts on good ground. Recent form of -66U71 shows he can be in and out but he produced his best when winning last time out. Stepping up in trip for the first time in first-time headgear from draw 5, the four-year-old is usually held up. Ralph Beckett has an 8% strike rate at Ascot from 463 runs while Rossa Ryan has a 10% strike rate at the track from 250 rides. The headgear and new trip introduce unknowns but his Ascot record remains a plus.
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6Opportunity58/100
Opportunity is a smart performer with a solid record and proven ability at Ascot where he has won one of three runs. Recent form of -31123 includes two placed efforts from his last three starts in strong races and he steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a new question. William Haggas has a 13% strike rate at Ascot from 884 runs.
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7Highwayman58/100
Highwayman is a smart performer who has won his last three starts with recent form of 008111 and arrives in excellent order. He steps up in trip today having looked as though the extra distance would suit when last seen, though the trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at Ascot from 162 runs. The three-year-old is usually held up.
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8Quickthorn57/100
Quickthorn is a smart performer who has won at this track and over today's trip with recent form of 461/54 that is patchy. He has solid placed efforts on good ground, three wins from eight starts on it, and a course record of one win from five runs. Hughie Morrison has a 9% strike rate at Ascot from 321 runs with a respectable A/E of 0.91.
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9Queenstown55/100
Queenstown is a smart performer who arrives in solid form with three wins from his last six starts and recent form of 32-123. He is proven on good ground with one win from five starts on it and has been placed at today's trip though he steps back from a longer distance last time. Aidan O'Brien has a 14% strike rate at Ascot while Ryan Moore is a known positive on these big days here.
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10Amelia Earhart51/100
Amelia Earhart is a smart performer who has been consistent at a high level this year without winning and recent form of 655233 shows she has placed on her last three starts. She handles good ground with one win from four starts on it and steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. Aidan O'Brien has a solid 14% strike rate at Ascot from a big sample.
KTB verdict
Gregory shapes as the KTB Selection in a race where his proven course-and-distance record and current form stand out. The selection has won both starts at this trip including success here, acts on the good ground, and his front-running style could allow him to dictate matters in a strongly-run contest that may suit those on the speed if the hold-up brigade cannot close effectively. His main dangers are Daiquiri Bay, who is in excellent order after three straight wins and has course form, and Caballo de Mar, who has run well at Ascot in the past despite the trainer's modest record at the track. Mount Atlas and Amiloc add further depth on their best days, but Gregory holds the strongest blend of fitness, track knowledge and suitability to the expected shape.
KTB Selection Gregory
This is the narrative read of the 1:30 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ascot results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ascot racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won both starts at today's trip?
Gregory has won both starts at this trip including a course success.
How does the expected strong pace shape influence the race?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are stepping up in trip for the first time?
Daiquiri Bay, Opportunity, Highwayman, Amiloc and Amelia Earhart are all stepping up in trip for the first time.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Amiloc is wearing first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Ascot among those represented?
Aidan O'Brien has a 14% strike rate at Ascot from 921 runs.
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