1:35 Catterick
This Class 4 novice stakes over 5f 212y at Catterick on good to soft ground brings together a field of nine with a mixture of lightly raced types and more exposed handicappers stepping up in class. The KTB numbers highlight two promising types at the head of the market in Inkberrow and Byerley Lady, both with limited experience but backed by positive yard statistics at the track, while several others arrive with modest but consistent form. With the majority of the field unproven on the surface, the race carries a degree of unknowns, yet the strong pace anticipated should create late-race opportunities.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected given the presence of multiple habitual front-runners, including Inkberrow, Poor Relation and Top Lad, all of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. Royale Union is likely to track the leaders from draw six while the hold-up performers such as Black Orchid and Stoneacre Joe will be positioned further back. This early speed could cause the race to collapse in the final furlong, posing the key question of whether any prominent runners can sustain their effort or if the race will fall to something coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Inkberrow KTB Selection59/100
Inkberrow heads the KTB Fit ratings and is the selection. He has shown strong early promise with a win and a second from just two starts, including a victory at today's trip. The yard's 44% strike rate at Catterick from nine runs is a clear positive. With only two career runs the form has to be treated with caution and the going remains an unknown. From draw one he is expected to make the running or race prominently in a race where the pace is likely to be strong. Paul Mulrennan takes the ride for the Simon & Ed Crisford team who hold a 2/15 record with this jockey combination.
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2Byerley Lady57/100
Byerley Lady is rated just behind the selection on KTB Fit. She has only one career run behind her and was well beaten on debut over 7f, so she remains hard to assess with any confidence. She now drops back to an untried 5f on good to soft ground, which is simply an unknown at this stage. Ian Williams has a solid 17% strike rate at Catterick from 87 runs. Edward Greatrex is in the saddle and the combination holds a 14/113 record together. From draw two she could be handy early in a race with a strong pace expected.
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3Royale Union53/100
Royale Union is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability, including a placed effort at today's trip from a single run at the distance. Dropping back from 7f looks a logical move but the first-time headgear is an unknown and the Catterick run last time produced only a fair fourth. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track with K R Burke on 16% from 415 runs and Sam James on 12% from 270 rides. He steps up in class from an official rating of 65 and is likely to race prominently from draw six. The yard and jockey combination shows a 133/822 record.
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4Poor Relation52/100
Poor Relation is another modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He drops sharply in trip today having last run over a mile and a half, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Ollie Sangster has a strong 29% strike rate at Catterick from a small sample of seven runs while Jason Hart sits on a solid 15% from over 500 rides here. He steps up in class from an official rating of 64 and is expected to race prominently or make the running from draw nine. The yard and jockey show a trainer-jockey record of trainer and jockey stats as listed.
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5Heaven's Hope50/100
Heaven's Hope has been well beaten in both starts so far and arrives with only two career runs on the board. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at Catterick. Dropping back from 7f to an untried 5f trip poses a fresh question while the going remains unknown on such limited evidence.
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6Black Orchid49/100
Black Orchid is a modest performer who has finished second in all five starts including four times over today's trip. The yard has a poor 0% strike-rate from 14 runs at Catterick while first-time headgear is now reached for. Jockey Oisin Orr has a solid 17% strike-rate from 84 rides here. He steps up in class from an official rating of 68 and will be held up.
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7Miss Tino46/100
Miss Tino has shown little in two runs to date, finishing fifth here over this trip on her most recent start. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Catterick from a large sample offers no obvious encouragement. With only two career runs everything remains very much unknown at this stage. She is likely to be held up.
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8Stoneacre Joe40/100
Stoneacre Joe is a limited performer who has shown his best at this trip, placing twice in nine attempts without winning. He has run respectably at Catterick on both visits yet remains winless after ten starts overall and looks modest on the balance of his form. Trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at the track. He will be held up and steps up in class from an official rating of 54.
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9Top Lad32/100
Top Lad is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in nine starts and has failed to win or place at this trip in three attempts. He has run respectably over course and distance on his last two visits here but the yard's poor 5% strike rate at Catterick is a concern. The jockey has a solid record at the track but the overall profile remains modest on good to soft ground. He steps up in class from an official rating of 55 and is likely to race prominently.
KTB verdict
Inkberrow is the KTB Selection. He brings the best early promise with a win and a second from only two starts, including success at this trip, and is supported by the yard's excellent 44% strike rate at Catterick. The strong pace anticipated should suit his front-running style, though the good to soft ground and limited experience remain points to monitor. His main dangers are Byerley Lady, who is difficult to gauge after one poor run but drops in trip for a yard with a solid Catterick record, and the more exposed pair Royale Union and Poor Relation, both of whom have shown placed form and benefit from strong trainer statistics at the track.
KTB Selection Inkberrow
This is the narrative read of the 1:35 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Catterick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Catterick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to contest the lead given the strong pace shape?
Inkberrow, Poor Relation and Top Lad are all habitual front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the field are unproven on good to soft ground?
Seven runners have no runs on good to soft and are therefore unproven on the ground, with only Stoneacre Joe and Top Lad having prior experience on the surface.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Catterick in this race?
Simon & Ed Crisford have a 44% strike rate at Catterick from nine runs, with Ollie Sangster next on 29% from a small sample of seven runs.
Which runner has the most placed form without a win in this field?
Black Orchid has finished second in all five starts including four times over today's trip.
Who are the two runners stepping back markedly in trip?
Byerley Lady drops from 7f to 5f while Poor Relation drops sharply from a mile and a half to this distance.
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