1:37 Worcester
This Class 5 handicap chase over 2m4f at Worcester on good ground features a field of ten where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but not especially deep race. The top five in the Fit rankings are tightly bunched between 54 and 62, suggesting little separates the principals on paper, while the race is notable for the presence of a likely uncontested leader. Course form and trainer records at Worcester carry particular weight here, with several runners having proven themselves around this track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to Calli Black being allowed an uncontested lead from the front. With the majority of the field, including the selection, preferring to be held up, the race is likely to develop into a test of whether the leader can dictate matters or if the closers can bridge the gap in the straight. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will prove decisive on this track, or if the strong late efforts from the principals can overcome the shape.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Onehundredneighty KTB Selection62/100
Onehundredneighty is a useful performer who won over course and distance on good ground last time and arrives in decent form. He has a solid course record here with one win from three starts and the yard maintains an 18% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 0.96 from 196 runs. The combination of trainer Ben Pauling and jockey Ben Jones shows a 20% strike rate from 702 rides with an A/E of 0.92. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he steps back up in trip which looks a fair question after his latest run over shorter. His recent form of 35-421 underlines his competitiveness at this level.
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2Calli Black61/100
Calli Black is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from limited attempts. Recent form of 5577-8 is ordinary and the yard's runners can sometimes lack a bit of consistency, yet the trainer boasts a 24% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 1.85 from 33 runs. The jockey has a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.96 from 222 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he holds a key role in the race shape as the likely lone leader. He has one win from nine on good ground and one win from two starts at Worcester.
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3Love Me60/100
Love Me is a useful performer who has shown consistent ability in recent starts without winning. Dropping in class, he drops back in trip today having last run over further and with only one previous attempt at this distance which brought no success. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 1.15 from 83 runs while the jockey holds an 18% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.08 from 259 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he makes his first appearance at Worcester. His recent form of 43P53- reflects steady placed efforts at a higher level.
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4Jimmyjeroo59/100
Jimmyjeroo is a useful performer who has been knocking on the door without winning lately, finishing in the first four on all five starts this season. He has shown up well both times at Worcester, recording a fourth and a third, and handles good ground though his record on it is modest with just one win from ten runs. The trainer has a 17% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 1.04 from 121 runs and the jockey a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 1.03 from 65 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, dropping back to 2m4f poses a fresh question as he has only placed once in three tries at the trip. His form of 34342- highlights his consistency.
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5Tom Taggle54/100
Tom Taggle is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. Dropping back in trip today having failed to land a blow in three previous attempts at this distance, he makes his first start at Worcester. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.08 from 11 runs while the jockey has an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.96 from 242 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has one win from one run on good ground. His recent form of /F374- indicates some ability but limited impact at this trip to date.
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6Noble Recall52/100
Noble Recall is a modest performer who has won once in seven runs here and knows his way around this track. He has two wins from eleven starts at today's trip and drops back in distance after his last run over 2m4½f, with two wins from ten on good ground. The trainer and jockey both have solid Worcester records with above-average A/E figures.
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7Pop's Folly51/100
Pop's Folly is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. Dropping back in trip today having last run over two and a half miles further, with just one previous try at this distance that brought no success. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 6% strike rate here at Worcester and he is unproven on good ground.
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8Disco Davis49/100
Disco Davis is a useful performer who has run five times at Worcester without winning, finishing placed on two of those starts. He has placed on good ground and at this trip but is still without a victory in either, while his recent form of 3P65P shows inconsistency. Dropping in class, the trainer has a modest 3% strike rate here from 123 runs and the jockey is 5% from 299 rides.
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9Black Occ42/100
Black Occ is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year yet remains winless after 12 starts. He has been competitive on good ground but his record here reads poorly with no win or place from two visits. The trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Worcester and he now drops back from 3m2f to a trip where he has failed to score in four previous attempts.
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10Rockvale40/100
Rockvale is a fair handicapper who showed his best side when winning at this trip last time. He has already tried this track once without success and the yard has a poor record here with 0% strike rate from 22 runs. The jockey knows the place well enough but this looks a tougher task dropping back from his latest run.
KTB verdict
Onehundredneighty stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer with a recent course-and-distance win on good ground, he brings solid recent form, a strong course record and the benefit of a yard that strikes at 18% at Worcester. His held-up style should see him delivered late against the likely uncontested lead, with the step back up in trip appearing within range. The main dangers are Calli Black, who can take the race by the scruff from the front and has track-and-trip form, and Love Me, who drops in class and trip with a respected jockey booking. Jimmyjeroo and Tom Taggle add further depth to what looks a tight race on the numbers.
KTB Selection Onehundredneighty
This is the narrative read of the 1:37 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Worcester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to set the pace?
Calli Black, who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence in a race with a lone-leader pace shape.
How many of the principals are usually held up?
Four of the top five principals are usually held up: Onehundredneighty, Love Me, Jimmyjeroo and Tom Taggle.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Worcester in this field?
David Weston with a 24% strike rate at Worcester from 33 runs.
Which horse has the best recent course form at Worcester?
Onehundredneighty, who has won here from three starts.
Who is dropping in class in this race?
Love Me and Disco Davis are both dropping in class.
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