1:42 Newbury
This Class 4 fillies' handicap at Newbury over 1m2f on soft ground brings together a field of 14 three-year-olds and older with little previous experience of the track. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but not impossible race, with the top five all rated in the mid-50s and carrying official ratings between 76 and 80. Several runners arrive in solid recent form while others bring questions about trip, ground or fitness after breaks.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strongly positive and a strong gallop is likely. Sax Avoidance and Helga both tend to make the running or race prominently, while Patagonia Girl, Kokoluna, Lucky Luna, Hatta Romance and Mathoura like to race handily. That early speed could set the race up for hold-up performers such as Ammoony and Sapphire Steps, with the key question whether the leaders pay for their exertions in the soft conditions late on.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sax Avoidance KTB Selection63/100
Sax Avoidance is a fair sort who has won two of his last three starts and arrives in solid form. He has already shown he handles soft ground and has won over today's trip, though he is now dropping back from 1m3f. The trainer has a 20% strike rate at Newbury from a small sample of five runs. Drawn in stall one he is expected to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence. The official rating of 76 looks workable and the recent form figures of 543112 underline his current well-being. Stepping up in class is the only slight concern.
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2Ammoony58/100
Ammoony is a fair performer who arrives in solid form with two seconds and a win from his last four starts. He drops back to 1m2f having won at the trip earlier this year, though he was well held when last seen over 1m4f. The trainer has an 18% strike rate at Newbury from 50 runs, in line with his overall record. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he could be suited by the expected strong pace. Unproven on soft ground remains the main question mark. His official rating sits at 78.
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3Belfrina56/100
Belfrina is a fair performer who showed promise when winning on her handicap debut last year before a lengthy absence. She drops back from 2m1f to a trip she has already won over from just one attempt, though first-time headgear is now applied after the break. The yard's 14% strike rate at Newbury is in line with their record elsewhere. Racing prominently with high confidence, she is drawn wide in stall 12. The dam has had three other runners, none of them a winner. Her official rating is 79.
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4Patagonia Girl53/100
Patagonia Girl is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from ten attempts and arrives in decent nick after a recent success. She has never run at Newbury or on soft ground so both are unknowns today. The yard's 9% strike rate here from 169 runs sits in line with their record elsewhere. She usually races handily on or close to the lead with high confidence. Dropping in class from an official rating of 80, her recent form reads 584717.
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5Helga53/100
Helga is a fair 3-year-old with only three career runs behind her and an official rating of 77. She drops back in trip to 1m2f today having last run over 1m3f, which asks a fresh question, while the soft ground remains unknown given the small sample. Trainer Jack Channon has a 9% strike rate at Newbury from 90 runs, in line with his record elsewhere. She tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence. The dam has had one other runner, not a winner.
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6Ourbren52/100
Ourbren is a fair 3-year-old with an official rating of 84 and recent form of 516870. He has placed once from one run at Newbury and shown competitiveness on soft ground with one placing from five runs. The trainer has a 2% strike rate at Newbury from 368 runs which is below their 7% at other courses while this represents a step up in trip from a last run over 7f.
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7Sapphire Steps50/100
Sapphire Steps is a modest performer who has won once from four runs at Newbury. Has been below form on his last few starts and remains unproven on soft ground having never raced on it. First try at this trip produced no impact.
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8Aequitas49/100
Aequitas is a fair performer who showed some ability when third at this trip on his latest start. He has placed once in two runs at this distance but his overall form is mixed and the wide draw in a big field is a fact to note. The yard's 6% strike rate at Newbury is in line with their record elsewhere.
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9Kokoluna48/100
Kokoluna is a fair 3 year old with a solid recent record that includes a win at this trip. She has handled soft ground once without placing and makes her first start at Newbury from the widest draw of 14. The trainer's 8% strike rate at the track sits below their record elsewhere.
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10Hatta Romance47/100
Hatta Romance is a fair performer who has shown mixed form in three starts, finishing fifth over this course and trip on his most recent outing. He drops back from 1m3f today with no win or place at the distance so far, while the dam has produced just one other non-winning runner. Mark Usher has a 4% strike rate at Newbury from 340 runs, below his 7% elsewhere.
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11Lucky Luna45/100
Lucky Luna is a modest performer who has shown mixed form this year and was only fifth of six when last seen here over further. Drops back to 1m2f where she has been placed once from two starts and she has won on soft ground from a small sample. Trainer at Newbury has an 11% strike rate from 1,253 runs in line with their record elsewhere while the 7 lb claimer has limited course experience.
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12Church Wedding44/100
Church Wedding is a modest performer who has shown mixed form in three starts, finishing third on debut then seventh and fifth since. Drops back in trip to 1m2f today having last run over 1m3f, which asks a fresh question. Trainer records a 12% strike rate at Newbury from 604 runs, below their 16% at other courses.
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13Albus Anne37/100
Albus Anne is a modest performer who has dropped to a handy mark after winning last time. She has two wins from 11 starts at this trip and a solid soft-ground record of two wins and ten places from 13 runs. The yard's 1% strike rate at Newbury from 173 runs is below their 5% at other tracks while she herself is 0-2 here.
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14Mathoura35/100
Mathoura is a modest performer who has shown steady placed form at this trip without winning. Trainer at Newbury has a 0% strike rate from 5 runs. Drawn 11 of 14 in a race where data confidence is high from ratings and race history.
KTB verdict
Sax Avoidance is the KTB Selection. A fair sort in solid current form, he has already shown he handles soft ground and has won over today's trip while his trainer's 20% strike rate at Newbury from a small sample is encouraging. Drawn in stall one he should be able to make the running in a race where the pace is likely to be strong. The main dangers are Ammoony, who drops back to a trip he has won over and could be helped by the strong pace from his hold-up style, and Belfrina, who returns from a break with first-time headgear and drops to a suitable distance. Patagonia Girl and Helga are others who can feature if the unknowns of ground or trip do not prove insurmountable.
KTB Selection Sax Avoidance
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). 14 runners were not priced by any bookmaker before the off (a dash). Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
This is the narrative read of the 1:42 Newbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newbury racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newbury results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Newbury racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are proven on soft ground?
Sax Avoidance has 1 win from 1 on soft. Ourbren has placed 1 of 5 on soft. Kokoluna has 1 run on soft with no win or place. Lucky Luna has 1 win from 1 on soft. Albus Anne has 2 wins from 13 on soft with 10 placed. Mathoura has 1 run on soft with no win or place.
Who has course form at Newbury?
Ourbren has one run here, finishing third. Sapphire Steps has won here from four runs. Hatta Romance has one run here, finishing fifth. Lucky Luna has one run here, finishing fifth. Albus Anne is 0-2 here.
Which runners are making their first start at Newbury?
Sax Avoidance, Ammoony, Belfrina, Patagonia Girl, Helga, Aequitas, Kokoluna, Church Wedding and Mathoura have no course form on record.
How does the expected pace shape affect the race?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners. This could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are dropping back in trip to 1m2f?
Sax Avoidance is dropping back from 1m3f. Ammoony drops back to 1m2f. Belfrina drops back from 2m1f. Helga drops back in trip to 1m2f from 1m3f. Church Wedding drops back in trip to 1m2f from 1m3f.
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