5:05 Doncaster
This Class 4 handicap division at Doncaster over 6f on soft ground brings together a field of 13 where the KTB Fit Scores point to a tight contest at the top. The principals are headed by Archduke Ferdinand on a mark of 80, with Angel Gabriel, Lipsink and Jellystone Park all rated in the low-to-mid 80s or carrying strong recent form. Overall the numbers suggest a race that will test stamina and positioning on the testing surface, with several runners having something to prove regarding the ground or the track.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence given the presence of multiple habitual front-runners including Angel Gabriel, Lipsink and Jellystone Park. Archduke Ferdinand and Never Just A Dream are likely to race prominently just in behind, while hold-up performers such as Intense Vision, French Affair and Mythical Phoenix could benefit if the leaders go too hard and the race collapses late. The key question is whether the prominent group can dictate matters or if the shape will play into the hands of those coming from off the pace on this soft ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Archduke Ferdinand KTB Selection61/100
Archduke Ferdinand is a fair handicapper who has won once from eight runs at Doncaster and four times from 19 starts at this trip. He has been competitive on soft ground without winning and arrives in reasonable form having shown a mix of results this year. The trainer’s 8% strike rate here is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey has a 13% strike rate from 16 rides at the track. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is drawn in stall three which should allow him to track the expected strong pace without over-exerting early. His placed efforts on soft ground from five attempts underline his ability to handle the conditions even if a win has so far eluded him on it.
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2Angel Gabriel59/100
Angel Gabriel is a fair performer who has shown his best form on soft ground, winning his only start on it. Placed on his one visit to Doncaster and has two wins from seven runs at this trip. Trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level here, with respective strike rates of 15% and 13% at the track that match their overall figures. A habitual front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he drops in class today which could bring out further improvement. His record of one win and one place from one soft-ground start marks him out as particularly well suited to the prevailing conditions.
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3Lipsink58/100
Lipsink is a fair 9-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins in the last five starts. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over four times from 11 attempts and has shown he handles soft ground with one win and three places from five runs. The yard posts a 9% strike rate at Doncaster from 405 runs in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey is operating at 4% from 131 rides here which is below his 10% at other tracks. As another confirmed front-runner he is likely to be prominent from the outset, setting or disputing the strong pace that is forecast. His consistency of late adds to his claims despite the step back up in trip.
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4Jellystone Park55/100
Jellystone Park is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win at today's trip and a second on this track. He has only four career runs so the going remains an unknown on soft ground. Trainer Jack Channon and jockey George Bass both operate at their usual 15% and 13% strike rates here at Doncaster. Another who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is drawn widest of the main principals in stall 12 which may force him to work harder than ideal to secure an early position. The family line shows the dam has had two other runners, none of them a winner.
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5Never Just A Dream53/100
Never Just A Dream is a fair performer who has won four times over this trip from 19 starts and arrives in reasonable form after a placed effort last time. Trainer has an 8% strike rate at Doncaster from 24 runs in line with their record elsewhere while jockey records a 13% strike rate here from 87 rides also in line with his overall figure. No previous runs at the track and unproven on soft ground so both those elements remain unknowns. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he should be able to track the front-runners without using up too much energy early. His recent placed effort suggests he retains enough ability to be competitive if the ground does not prove against him.
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6Intense Vision52/100
Intense Vision is a fair performer who has failed to build on an early promise and now arrives on the back of a string of modest efforts. Only one run at this trip and one at the track both produced no impact. Trainer is 0-6 at Doncaster while the jockey operates at an 11% strike rate here in line with his overall record. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he could be suited by the strong pace that is likely.
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7French Affair50/100
French Affair is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from eight attempts and brings solid recent form including a win at this level. He has been below his best both starts at Doncaster and showed little on his only soft-ground run. Trainer and jockey both operate at an 8% strike rate here, the latter below their usual level. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn widest of all in stall 13.
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8Kodiac Thriller49/100
Kodiac Thriller is a fair performer on his best days but has been out of form for some time with four poor runs since his last win. He has shown nothing at this track in three starts and has failed to place in two runs on soft ground. The step back up to 6f is at least a move in the right direction given his one win at the trip. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
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9Almarada Prince49/100
Almarada Prince is a fair handicapper who has been consistent this year with a string of placed efforts and a recent win. He has run four times at Doncaster without placing and is drawn 10 of 13 today. The yard and jockey both show strike rates at the track that are in line with their records elsewhere. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, and has been competitive without winning on soft ground.
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10Mythical Phoenix46/100
Mythical Phoenix is a modest performer who has been placed twice from four runs at Doncaster without winning. Drops back to 6f today having been placed at the trip earlier in his career though he is unproven on soft ground. Trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level here. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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11Oriental Prince46/100
Oriental Prince is a modest performer who has been busy this year and showed his best form when winning over 5f last time out. He steps up to 6f today having won at the trip before but his record on soft ground is poor and he has never placed in two runs at Doncaster. The trainer's 9% strike rate here is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey's 6% strike rate at the track is below his overall figure. Typically settles in midfield.
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12Go Vince Go41/100
Go Vince Go is a modest performer who has been busy this year and is now stepping back up to a trip he has won over twice from 14 attempts. Has shown some ability on this track but is 0-2 here without placing and has failed to win or place in two runs on soft ground. Trainer and jockey both sit below their usual strike rates at Doncaster. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
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13Wobwobwob40/100
Wobwobwob is a modest performer with an official rating of 68 and recent form of 950985 that offers little encouragement. He has run six times at Doncaster without winning or placing and drops back to 6f today where he has two wins from 19 starts. The trainer holds an 11% strike rate at the track in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey is on 2% at Doncaster below his 9% at other courses. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
KTB verdict
Archduke Ferdinand is the KTB Selection. A fair handicapper with a winning record at Doncaster and over this trip, he arrives in reasonable form and should be ideally placed to track the strong pace before delivering his challenge. His competitiveness on soft ground without a win on it is noted, yet he remains the one to beat on these terms. The main dangers are likely to come from Angel Gabriel, who has shown his best form on soft and drops in class, and Lipsink, whose recent winning form and proven stamina at the trip make him a persistent threat if he can dictate from the front. Jellystone Park and Never Just A Dream add further depth to what looks a competitive renewal.
KTB Selection Archduke Ferdinand
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:26am, 23 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Archduke Ferdinand | 25/1 | Bet Victor, 1:09am |
| Angel Gabriel | 7/2 | Bet365, 1:09am |
| Lipsink | 8/1 | William Hill, 1:09am |
| Jellystone Park | 40/1 | William Hill, 1:09am |
| Never Just A Dream | 10/1 | Bet365, 1:09am |
| Intense Vision | 9/2 | Bet365, 1:09am |
| French Affair | 15/2 | William Hill, 1:09am |
| Kodiac Thriller | 40/1 | 7Bet, 1:09am |
| Almarada Prince | 4/1 | Bet365, 1:09am |
| Mythical Phoenix | 40/1 | William Hill, 1:09am |
| Oriental Prince | 11/1 | Bet Victor, 1:09am |
| Go Vince Go | 25/1 | Bet Victor, 1:09am |
| Wobwobwob | 9/1 | Bet365, 1:09am |
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Doncaster racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven on soft ground among the leading contenders?
Angel Gabriel has shown his best form on soft ground, winning his only start on it, while Lipsink has one win and three places from five runs on soft.
How many front-runners are likely to contest the early lead?
At least three habitual front-runners are in the field: Angel Gabriel, Lipsink and Jellystone Park, supporting the forecast of a strong pace.
Which runners are unproven on soft ground?
Jellystone Park has only one run on soft with no win or place, Never Just A Dream has no runs on soft, Intense Vision has no runs on soft, Mythical Phoenix has no runs on soft.
Who has the strongest recent record at Doncaster among the principals?
Archduke Ferdinand has won once from eight runs at Doncaster, while Angel Gabriel has been placed on his one visit and Jellystone Park has been placed once here.
Which hold-up horse could be favoured if the strong pace collapses?
Intense Vision and French Affair are usually held up and produce their effort late, with the pace shape suggesting this could suit them if the leaders fold.
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