Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.36). With a claiming rider up the record reads 18% (57 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 105 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 24 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceMark McDonagh: 10.2% from 59Claiming riders: 17.5%
The read
Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 17.5% (n=57, Fair A/E 1.69). Mark McDonagh rides 56% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.2%, A/E 1.29) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (13.9%, n=36). 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Colm Quinn BMW Handicap Chase at Punchestown (May 2024, £29,500). The stable star of the record: R'evelyn Pleasure (IRE) — 7 wins from 55 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.9%−4.6
n=17 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −11.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−10.5
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.5
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.5
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
50%
n=4 · A/E 1.94 · £1 +1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
17.5%+7.0
n=57 · A/E 1.69 · £1 +22.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−10.5
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up17.5% vs 10.5% · n=57
Over 2m5f – 3m13.9% vs 10.5% · n=36
Off a 15-30-day break13.3% vs 10.5% · n=45
With a new jockey booking12.5% vs 10.5% · n=40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle57610.5%−26.75
Chase46510.9%+7.75
Flat100%−1.00
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft48510.4%+8.50
Good22313.6%−7.00
Heavy2229.1%−12.25
Good to Soft1317.7%−10.25
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown1516.7%+8.00
Cork13215.4%+0.00
Limerick9111.1%−6.75
Killarney7114.3%−1.50
Wexford6116.7%−2.00
Down Royal6116.7%−1.50
Fairyhouse6116.7%+11.00
Leopardstown600%−6.00
Thurles500%−5.00
Navan500%−5.00
Ballinrobe400%−4.00
Tramore4125%+1.00
Clonmel4125%+3.00
Gowran Park300%−3.00
Roscommon300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11100%−11.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite4250%1.94+1.00
2nd–3rd fav22522.7%1.45+4.00
4th–6th fav2727.4%0.94−14.00
7th+ in betting5223.8%1.33−12.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4548.9%−26.25
2m5f – 3m36513.9%−0.75
1m5f – 2m1616.3%−9.00
Over 3m8112.5%+15.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202235514.3%−12.25
202325312%−11.25
202413215.4%+17.50
20251500%−15.00
20261715.9%+0.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps75810.7%−3.75
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners2827.1%−17.50
14-16 runners23313%−7.75
8-10 runners2129.5%−12.50
17+ runners20210%+20.00
5-7 runners12216.7%−2.25
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 13 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 13 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 11 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
18116111222000008
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
39
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£611k
Prize money
2013
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 11.4% of 5,823 runs since 2008 (679 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Court Cave (IRE)14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,933 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 934.
Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,167 runs since 2008 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 476 · newest first
The latest 50 of 476 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Sean O O'Brien's strike rate?
Sean O O'Brien has won 11 of 105 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.5% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Sean O O'Brien?
Mark McDonagh, with 59 runners since 2022 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (10.2%).
Is Sean O O'Brien in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Sean O O'Brien's Fair A/E?
1.36, from 105 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Sean O O'Brien·SR 10.5%·A/E 1.36
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