2:45 Doncaster
This Class 2 William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap over 7f6y at Doncaster on soft ground brings together ten useful performers, several of them dropping in class while others step up. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Zoum Zoum and Invictus Gold sharing the highest mark of 60/100, followed closely by Redemption Road on 58, Ellusive Butterfly on 56 and Power Fizz on 55. Recent form is mixed across the field and several runners enter with questions to answer regarding trip, ground or headgear, yet the overall standard looks high for the grade.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as two or more habitual front-runners are present and the early tempo is likely to be genuinely strong. Ellusive Butterfly and Inishbeg both tend to make the running or race prominently, while Palladas usually races handily on or close to the lead; this could set the race up for those racing with cover. The key question is whether the pace collapses late on soft ground, in which case hold-up performers such as Zoum Zoum, Redemption Road, Power Fizz and Murashah would be favoured to pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Zoum Zoum KTB Selection60/100
Zoum Zoum is a useful performer who has won over this trip and on soft ground. He has won here from four runs at the track and arrives in reasonable form having been placed on his most recent start. The Ralph Beckett-trained five-year-old drops in class from an official rating of 99, with recent form figures of 2-9577. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 6. Beckett has a 15% strike rate at Doncaster from 420 runs while Rossa Ryan has a 13% strike rate at the track from 221 rides; the pair combine with a 21% record from 1125 rides together.
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2Invictus Gold60/100
Invictus Gold is a useful performer who has run to form on most starts this year and has already shown he can be competitive on soft ground. The Tom Clover-trained four-year-old steps up to 7f for the first time today while wearing first-time headgear, both of which are unknowns. From an official rating of 96 with recent form figures of 392806, he typically settles in midfield. Clover has a 21% strike rate at Doncaster from 53 runs and David Egan has a 16% strike rate at the track from 198 rides; their combined record stands at 19 wins from 107 rides.
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3Redemption Road58/100
Redemption Road is a useful performer who has been consistent in good company this year without winning. The Michael Keady-trained three-year-old drops back to 7f today having scored at the trip earlier in his career, though his only run on soft ground brought no joy. From an official rating of 103 with recent form figures of -33639, he usually races held up and produces his effort late. The yard has only two runs at Doncaster so far, too small a sample to judge, while Saffie Osborne has an 11% strike rate at the track from 84 rides; their combined record is 0 from 7.
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4Ellusive Butterfly56/100
Ellusive Butterfly is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after two wins in the last three starts and holds an official rating of 100. The Karl Burke-trained three-year-old has won three times at today's trip but showed no spark on soft ground in the sole attempt. Recent form reads 244711 and he tends to make the running or race on the pace. Burke has a 9% strike rate at Doncaster from 580 runs, below his overall mark, while Clifford Lee has a 10% strike rate at the track from 147 rides; their combined record stands at 16% from 2556 rides.
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5Power Fizz55/100
Power Fizz is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a solid sixth last time. The William Haggas-trained four-year-old drops back to 7f where he has won four times from eight starts but has shown no form on soft ground in two previous tries. From an official rating of 97 with recent form figures of -10016, he is usually held up and produces his effort late. Haggas has an 18% strike rate at Doncaster from 531 runs while Tom Marquand is making his first ride at the track; their combined record is 21% from 2175 rides.
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6Palladas54/100
Palladas has won both starts to date and carries a useful official rating of 95. He drops back to an untried 7f today which asks a fresh question, while the soft ground also remains unknown given only two career runs. Half-brother to Grey Charger (2 wins from 4 runs), with the dam having had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner. The yard records a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 247 runs and William Buick has a 22% strike rate at the track from 523 rides; their combined record stands at 30% from 2878 rides.
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7Murashah53/100
Murashah is a useful performer who has won both starts this year and arrives off an official rating of 94. He drops back to 7f having won twice at the trip from five runs, though the small career sample leaves going suitability unknown on this soft ground. Half-brother to Jadhlaan (1 win from 7 runs), with the dam having had 2 other runners, 2 of them winners. The trainer operates at a 15% strike rate at Doncaster from 93 runs while Oisin Orr has a 6% strike rate at the track from 84 rides; their combined record is 20% from 66 rides.
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8U Sure Do53/100
U Sure Do is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after two wins in lesser company. He has won on soft ground and has scored twice over today's trip though he steps back up from 6f today. The yard's 7% strike rate at Doncaster sits below their overall mark while this is the horse's first run here. Tim Easterby and David Allan combine with an 11% record from 9179 rides.
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9Egoli53/100
Egoli is a fair performer who won on his only previous visit to Doncaster and has also scored at today's trip. He arrives in solid form having won and finished fourth in two starts since returning from a break, though he is unproven on soft ground. Ralph Beckett has a 15% strike rate here from 420 runs while Rhys Clutterbuck has a 10% strike rate at the track from 31 rides; their combined record is 26% from 77 rides.
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10Inishbeg47/100
Inishbeg is a fair 3-year-old who has won both starts at this trip and landed his only previous run here at Doncaster. He has shown useful form on his day but has been inconsistent, with recent efforts including both strong wins and lesser displays. Half-brother to Guilded, a Listed winner (2 wins from 18 runs), with the dam having had 2 other runners, 2 of them winners. Kevin Ryan has a 7% strike rate at this track from 911 runs while Ray Dawson has a 13% strike rate at Doncaster from 87 rides.
KTB verdict
Zoum Zoum is the KTB Selection. A useful performer who has won over this trip and on soft ground, he has also won here from four runs at Doncaster and arrives in reasonable form having been placed last time out. Dropping in class from an official rating of 99, the hold-up performer looks well placed to capitalise if the anticipated strong pace collapses late on this soft surface. Main dangers include Invictus Gold, who has been running to form on most starts and is competitive on soft, though the step up to 7f and first-time headgear are unknowns, and Redemption Road, a consistent performer in good company who drops back to a trip at which he has scored before.
KTB Selection Zoum Zoum
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:23am, 23 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Zoum Zoum | 17/2 | Bet365, 1:02am |
| Invictus Gold | 11/2 | William Hill, 1:02am |
| Redemption Road | 25/1 | Bet Victor, 1:02am |
| Ellusive Butterfly | 22/1 | Bet Victor, 1:02am |
| Power Fizz | 16/1 | William Hill, 1:02am |
| Palladas | 7/4 | Bet365, 1:02am |
| Murashah | 5/1 | Bet365, 1:02am |
| U Sure Do | 14/1 | William Hill, 1:02am |
| Egoli | 25/1 | Bet Victor, 1:02am |
| Inishbeg | 8/1 | Bet Victor, 1:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Doncaster racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Ellusive Butterfly tends to make the running or race on the pace and Inishbeg also tends to make the running or race on the pace, while Palladas usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Which runners are suited by a strong pace that could collapse late?
Zoum Zoum, Redemption Road, Power Fizz and Murashah are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horses are proven on soft ground?
Zoum Zoum has 1 win from 3 on soft, Invictus Gold has been placed once from 2 on soft, U Sure Do has 1 win from 4 on soft with 3 placed, while Redemption Road, Ellusive Butterfly, Power Fizz, Palladas, Murashah, Egoli and Inishbeg are unproven on the surface.
Which horses have previous winning form at Doncaster?
Zoum Zoum has won here from 4 runs, Egoli has won here from 1 run and Inishbeg has won here from 1 run.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Doncaster according to the supplied data?
Charlie Appleby has a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 247 runs, Tom Clover 21% from 53, William Haggas 18% from 531, Ralph Beckett 15% from 420 and Edward Bethell 15% from 93.
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