3:30 Cheltenham
The Masterson Holdings Hurdle at Cheltenham is a competitive Class 2 contest over two miles and just under a furlong on good to soft ground. A field of seven includes several high-class performers on their day, though many arrive with questions to answer regarding consistency, trip, ground or the demands of this track. The KTB Fit ratings point to a tight contest at the top, headed by Lord Byron on 63, with One Horse Town, In The Minus and Indian River all closely matched in the mid-to-high 50s.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence. One Horse Town is likely to take them along from the front, pressed by the prominent runners Tunisya and La Luna Artista. This sets up a fair test where those held up or in mid-division will need to time their efforts well off what should be an honest gallop. The key question is whether the prominent types can sustain their effort or if the race will fall into the hands of a stronger finisher from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lord Byron KTB Selection63/100
Lord Byron is a high-class performer on his best days yet has failed to win in ten starts and showed only modest form when sixth on his latest outing. He has run twice at Cheltenham without placing and is 0-3 on good to soft ground. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate at the track from 13 runs while the jockey is making his first appearance here for this stable. Dropping in class looks a positive and the 4-year-old is expected to come from off the pace having usually been held up and producing his effort late. With an official rating of 147 he remains the highest-rated in the field on paper and his recent form reads 4542-6.
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2One Horse Town58/100
One Horse Town is a high-class performer who has won here from four runs at Cheltenham and possesses solid placed form on good to soft. He steps up in trip today having last run over a mile and six but has won four from six at this distance. The trainer's 8% strike rate at the track is in line with their record elsewhere and the jockey has a 7% strike rate from 42 rides at Cheltenham. With an official rating of 129 he steps up in class but his course win and placed efforts on similar ground make him a major player. Likely to make the running or race prominently, he should ensure the race is run at a genuine pace.
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3In The Minus56/100
In The Minus is high-class on his day and not fully exposed after 27 runs. He drops back to a trip he has won at from four attempts but is unproven on good to soft ground and makes his first appearance at Cheltenham. The trainer has only one run here so the sample is too small to judge while the jockey has an 8% strike rate from 13 rides at the track. With an official rating of 121 he is the lowest-rated of the principals yet his recent form of -50132 suggests he retains plenty of ability. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he could be suited by the genuinely-run pace.
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4Indian River55/100
Indian River is high-class on his day with a solid official rating of 134 and recent form that includes two wins. He has won on good to soft ground and at today's trip, but finished only 10th on his one previous run at Cheltenham. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 14 runs at the track while the jockey has a 5% strike rate from 182 rides here. Settling typically in midfield, he should be well placed to make a move off what is set to be a genuine gallop. His recent form reads 1103-7 and he remains capable of a bold show on his best day.
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5North Shore55/100
North Shore is a high-class performer on his day who showed that with a win at Kempton last time. Dropping back in trip today having been placed without winning over this distance previously, first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer records a 12% strike rate at Cheltenham from 597 runs which is below their 19% at other courses while the horse was well held on his only previous run here. Half-brother to Holetown (2 wins from 19 runs) with the dam having had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner. His recent form reads 40F-14.
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6Tunisya51/100
Tunisya showed ability when winning on debut but has been well held in both starts since. She has run twice at today's trip without success and remains lightly raced with only three outings in the last year. The trainer records an 8% strike rate at Cheltenham from 13 runs while the going sample is too small to judge. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, she steps up in class and her recent form reads 140-.
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7La Luna Artista46/100
La Luna Artista is a high-class performer on the figures and has won twice from three starts at this trip. She has shown plenty of ability on good to soft ground with two wins from as many starts but was only fifth when tried here on her sole visit to Cheltenham. The yard's 2% strike rate at the track from 46 runs sits below their 15% elsewhere. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, her recent form reads 11513- and she drops in class.
KTB verdict
Lord Byron is the KTB Selection. He is a high-class performer on his best days with the highest official rating in the field and drops in class, which should suit. Although he has failed to win in ten starts and has not placed in two runs at Cheltenham, the genuinely-run pace should play to his strengths as a horse usually held up. The main dangers are One Horse Town, who won here and has solid placed form on good to soft, and In The Minus, who is not fully exposed and drops back to a winning trip. Indian River cannot be ruled out either given his ability on the figures and record on good to soft.
KTB Selection Lord Byron
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:04am, 24 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Lord Byron | 3/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| One Horse Town | 11/2 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| In The Minus | 40/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Indian River | 3/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| North Shore | 5/2 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
| Tunisya | 80/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
| La Luna Artista | 13/2 | Bet365, 1:04am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Cheltenham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cheltenham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cheltenham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Cheltenham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven at Cheltenham and on the ground?
One Horse Town has won here from four runs at Cheltenham and has solid placed form on good to soft.
Who is likely to set the pace?
One Horse Town tends to make the running or race on the pace, likely to be pressed by the prominent runners Tunisya and La Luna Artista.
Which runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
In The Minus has no runs on good to soft and Tunisya has no runs on good to soft.
What is the trainer strike rate at Cheltenham for the yard of the selection?
Faye Bramley has an 8% strike rate at Cheltenham from 13 runs.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
North Shore is wearing first-time headgear.
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