2:55 Cheltenham
This Class 2 William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Steeple Chase over 3m1f at Cheltenham on good to soft ground brings together nine runners, several of whom are high-class on their day yet arrive with questions to answer. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Mt Fugi Park on 64, with Shannon Royale, Neo King and Moon D'Orange all within five points. Recent form is mixed across the field, with some stepping up in class while others drop in grade, and the overall picture suggests a competitive renewal where course experience and stamina will be at a premium.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as two or more habitual front-runners are present, including Mt Fugi Park, Here Comes Georgie and Diamond Dealer. This is likely to set the race up for hold-up performers, with the pace potentially collapsing late on. The key question is whether the prominent and front-running types can maintain their effort in the testing conditions or if the race will fall into the lap of those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mt Fugi Park KTB Selection64/100
Mt Fugi Park is a high-class performer who arrives in strong recent order after two wins from his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance once from four attempts while his record on good to soft reads one win and a placing from six runs. The yard's 10 percent strike rate at Cheltenham from 42 runners is in line with their record elsewhere and this is his first run at the track. As a confirmed front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is sure to be prominent in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. Benjamin Macey takes the ride with a 5 lb claim while the horse carries an official rating of 136. Recent form figures of F1-P11 underline his current momentum as he steps up in class.
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2Shannon Royale62/100
Shannon Royale is high-class on his day but has been largely out of form for some time and his recent efforts make grim reading. His Cheltenham record is poor with a pulled-up effort from one run here while the drop back from 4m1f to today's trip poses a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge in five previous attempts at this distance. The trainer's 10% strike rate at the track is in line with his record elsewhere. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he could be suited by the strong pace that is likely to unfold. Freddie Keighley takes the mount with a 5 lb claim and the horse is rated 130 officially. Recent form figures of 5P755- reflect his current struggles.
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3Neo King61/100
Neo King is a smart performer who arrives off a solid recent record of 2613P- and holds an official rating of 119. He is competitive on good to soft having placed three times from four starts on the surface yet drops back from 4m2f to a trip he has never tried. Trainer has only two runs at Cheltenham which is too small a sample to judge while this is the horse's first appearance here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment, he should be well placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses. Adam Wedge is in the saddle for a yard with a 7% strike rate at the course from 28 runners. The drop in class could also work in his favour.
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4Moon D'Orange59/100
Moon D'Orange is a high-class performer on his day but arrives out of form after two poor efforts this season. He has won once from 11 starts at Cheltenham and the yard's 10% strike rate here is in line with their record elsewhere. The step up to 3m1f poses a fresh question having failed to win in three previous attempts at the trip. Typically settling in midfield, he may find himself in a handy position as the race develops. Jack Tudor partners him for Christian Williams, who has sent out 102 winners from 974 runners at 10%. Recent form figures of 037-07 underline his current lack of spark despite an official rating of 125.
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5Uncle Bert54/100
Uncle Bert is a high-class performer on his day who has won at this trip. He has been out of sorts in his last two completed starts and his three runs at Cheltenham have produced no win or place. The yard's 3% strike rate here is below their record at other tracks while the jockey's 10% strike rate is also below his figure away from the course.
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6Katate Dori54/100
Katate Dori is a high-class performer who has run well at this track without winning, finishing placed on one of four starts here. Drops back from 4m to a trip where he has been placed without success, and first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer's 7% strike rate at Cheltenham is in line with his record elsewhere.
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7Here Comes Georgie51/100
Here Comes Georgie is a high-class performer on his day with a solid official rating of 123 and consistent recent form that includes several placed efforts. He has twice run below par at Cheltenham itself though, finishing seventh and ninth with no win or place, while the yard's 12% strike rate here from 597 runs sits below their 19% at other tracks. The step up to an untried 3m1f is a fresh question and he has shown two wins plus five places from nine runs on good to soft.
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8Diamond Dealer50/100
Diamond Dealer is a high-class performer with strong recent form including two wins and a second from his last four starts. He has solid going form with two wins from five runs on good to soft but showed only modest form when fifth on his sole visit to Cheltenham. The trainer's 12% strike rate at the track is below his 19% at other courses while this step up in trip to 3m1f is an unknown.
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9Karnaval Point45/100
Karnaval Point is a high-class performer on his official rating of 121 and recent form that includes two wins this year. He steps up in trip for the first time today having never tried beyond 2m7f, while his sole run on good to soft produced no win or place. The trainer's 9% strike rate at Cheltenham from 828 runs sits below his 15% at other courses.
KTB verdict
Mt Fugi Park stands out as the KTB Selection. He arrives in strong recent order after two wins from his last three starts, has already won at this distance once, and his record on good to soft is sound. As a habitual front-runner in a race where the pace is set to be strong, he is likely to dictate matters from the front and could prove hard to peg back if the leaders fold late. His main dangers are the hold-up types who are poised to pounce if the pace collapses, principally Neo King and Shannon Royale, though both bring significant questions of their own regarding current form and trip. Moon D'Orange cannot be entirely dismissed on his Cheltenham record but arrives out of sorts.
KTB Selection Mt Fugi Park
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:04am, 24 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Mt Fugi Park | 11/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Shannon Royale | 18/1 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
| Neo King | 22/1 | BoyleSports, 1:04am |
| Moon D'Orange | 8/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Uncle Bert | 9/2 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Katate Dori | 9/2 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Here Comes Georgie | 4/1 | Betfred, 1:04am |
| Diamond Dealer | 11/2 | BetTom, 1:04am |
| Karnaval Point | 16/1 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:55 Cheltenham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cheltenham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cheltenham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Cheltenham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip having already won at this distance once?
Mt Fugi Park, who has won at this distance once from four attempts.
How many times has Moon D'Orange won at Cheltenham?
Once from 11 starts at the track.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Cheltenham for the yard of Here Comes Georgie?
12% from 597 runs, which sits below their 19% at other tracks.
Which runner is fitted with first-time headgear?
Katate Dori.
What is Neo King's record on good to soft ground?
Placed 3 of 4 on good to soft, competitive but no win.
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