3:30 Uttoxeter
This Class 4 handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter over 2m3f207y on good ground brings together a field of 12 where the KTB numbers highlight a competitive but clear order of merit. The top five in the Fit rankings are separated by only 16 points, yet Tommy Cullen heads the list on 75 with a strong course record and recent confidence-boosting success. Overall the KTB assessments point to a race that will be decided by how the strong pace unfolds and which horses can capitalise on the likely late collapse.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, a strong pace is anticipated and the confidence in that assessment is high. Tommy Cullen and All Inn Hand are both established front-runners while Faded Fantasy also tends to race on the pace, so early speed should be plentiful. This shape is expected to test those racing prominently and could collapse late, favouring the hold-up horses such as Norman Fletcher, Maghlaak, October Hill, Phantom Gold, Virtual Rock, Rockstown Girl, Thiscouldbetheone and Royal Rhythm. The key question is whether the pace-setters can ration their speed sufficiently or if the race will fall into the lap of the patient riders.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tommy Cullen KTB Selection75/100
Tommy Cullen is the KTB Selection. A smart performer, he won over this trip on his only previous visit to Uttoxeter. He has struck at a 40% rate for Matt Crawley here and his good-ground record reads a solid three wins from twelve runs. Recent form of 4-44P1 shows he can mix it at this level when on song. Stepping up in class today, he is a confirmed front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence. Jack Quinlan takes the ride and boasts a 100% strike rate at Uttoxeter from his one ride, while the trainer's 40% strike rate and A/E of 4.29 at the track further strengthen the case.
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2Norman Fletcher69/100
Norman Fletcher is rated a smart performer who has been knocking on the door of late with placed efforts at this trip on his last two starts. He handles good ground, recording two wins from 13 runs with five places, and the yard have a strong 31% strike-rate at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 1.56 from 13 runs. First run here is neutral given the solid overall profile. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies as part of the trainer-jockey combination that has a 37/232 (16%) record with an A/E of 0.75. Recent form reads 7-7253.
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3Maghlaak63/100
Maghlaak is a smart performer who has shown enough on this track to stay competitive at this level. Three runs here have produced no better than fourth and the recent form figures of 14P-85 suggest he is not quite at his peak right now. Trainer Mark Walford holds a solid 15% strike rate at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 1.27 from 82 runs while the jockey Jamie Hamilton also has a respectable 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.76 from 61 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he has a placed record of one from eight on good ground but no wins.
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4Glance of Glory61/100
Glance of Glory is a smart performer who has won both starts at today's trip and looks well suited by the drop back from 2m7½f. Two wins from four runs on good ground with three places add to the positives while the Uttoxeter course connections are strong. Trainer Martin Keighley operates at a 12% strike rate here from 288 runs with an A/E of 0.87 and Sean Bowen is aboard as part of the combination that has a 58/312 (19%) record with an A/E of 1.02. Usually races handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence, his recent form reads 114F8-.
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5October Hill59/100
October Hill is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this season and ran a solid race when second over course and distance on his only previous visit here. He drops back from 3m today having already won over this trip, and his five placings from nine runs on good ground suggest the surface will suit. Trainer David Pipe has a 16% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 552 runs with an A/E of 0.93 while Rian Corcoran is yet to record a winner from his handful of rides at the track as part of the 22/97 (23%) combination with an A/E of 1.23. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he steps up in class with recent form of 3-1B25.
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6Phantom Gold57/100
Phantom Gold is a useful performer who arrives in good heart after a clear-cut win last time. He has already shown he handles this trip and has a solid record on good ground with two wins from seven runs and four places. The yard know the place well with a 19% strike rate at Uttoxeter and an A/E of 1.05 from 21 runs while the jockey has been on board for the last two starts as part of the 40/256 (16%) combination with an A/E of 0.91. Usually held up with medium confidence, he steps up in class with recent form of 6-4221.
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7Virtual Rock54/100
Virtual Rock is a smart performer who has already won over this course in just two visits. Steps up in trip today having shown useful form at shorter, so the longer distance is an unknown that could suit or expose him. Trainer has yet to strike at Uttoxeter from eight runners with an A/E of 0 while the jockey has a solid record here. Usually held up with medium confidence, he drops in class with recent form of 21/8 and one win from two on good ground.
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8All Inn Hand54/100
All Inn Hand is a smart performer who has shown useful form on several occasions but has been out of sorts on his last three starts. Drops back in trip today having failed to complete or finish close over further, though he did place over this distance once before. Trainer has a solid 21% strike rate at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 0.93 from 39 runs while the horse himself has course experience from a placed effort here. A front-runner with medium confidence, recent form reads 14-P4P with one win from eight on good.
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9Rockstown Girl53/100
Rockstown Girl is a smart performer who arrives in decent nick after three solid placed efforts this season. She has already won over today's trip and holds a respectable record on good ground with one win from ten runs and three places. Trainer has only a tiny sample at Uttoxeter so that side remains unknown with an A/E of 0 from three runs. Usually held up with medium confidence, recent form reads 12-336.
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10Thiscouldbetheone48/100
Thiscouldbetheone is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has shown fair placed form on his last two starts and steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. The Oliver yard holds a 10 percent strike rate from 129 runs at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 0.87. Usually held up with medium confidence, recent form reads /60-39 with one placing from two on good ground.
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11Faded Fantasy45/100
Faded Fantasy is a useful performer who has shown consistent if limited form this season. Four runs at Uttoxeter have produced no wins or places and the trainer's modest 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.77 from 105 runs adds little encouragement. Stays this trip and handles good ground with four wins from 22 runs and seven places, yet the overall profile lacks real spark at present. A front-runner with medium confidence, recent form is 7-5854 and he steps up in class.
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12Royal Rhythm40/100
Royal Rhythm is a useful performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins in his last four starts. He has run three times at Uttoxeter without placing and the yard's 11% strike rate from 81 runs here is modest with an A/E of 0.84. Drops back in trip today having won once from ten starts at this distance while his two wins from thirteen runs on good ground show he handles the surface. Usually held up with high confidence, recent form reads 55P311.
KTB verdict
The strong pace anticipated is likely to make this a thorough test and one that should suit those who can bide their time. Tommy Cullen is the KTB Selection on the back of his course success over this trip, a 40% strike rate for Matt Crawley at Uttoxeter and a good-ground record of three wins from twelve. He can make the running and has the class to cope with the rise in grade when on song. Norman Fletcher, with his recent placed efforts and the yard's excellent Uttoxeter record, is the most obvious danger along with Glance of Glory who drops back to a trip he has won over twice before.
KTB Selection Tommy Cullen
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Uttoxeter. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Uttoxeter racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Uttoxeter results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won over course and distance on its only previous visit to Uttoxeter?
Tommy Cullen won over this trip on his only previous visit to Uttoxeter.
How does the strong pace shape affect the hold-up horses in this race?
The strong pace looks likely to collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Uttoxeter for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Matt Crawley has a 40% strike rate at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 4.29 from five runs.
Which two principals have already won both their starts at today's trip?
Glance of Glory has won both starts at today's trip.
Which runner has course form of a win from two visits yet steps up in trip today?
Virtual Rock has already won over this course in just two visits and steps up in trip today.
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