3:36 Catterick
This Class 6 handicap division at Catterick over 5f 212y on good ground features a field of ten modest performers where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. The selection Hi Lord heads the numbers with a 58 rating, closely followed by Dream Deal and One Of Our Own on 57, with Ideal Guest and Solar Cooper both on 53. Several runners have course form at this track, and the overall picture points to a competitive race among exposed handicappers dropping in class or returning to a suitable trip.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, notably Ideal Guest from stall 1 and Eldeyaar drawn in six. This shape is likely to test those racing prominently and could lead to a collapse late on, playing into the hands of hold-up performers. The key question is whether the leaders can sustain their effort over this sharp Catterick trip or if the race will fall into the lap of a horse coming from off the pace, as the pace shape suggests strong early fractions that may not hold up.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Hi Lord KTB Selection58/100
Hi Lord is a modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Catterick. He has shown bits of form this year but his last three runs have been poor and he now steps up in trip for the first time. The yard has no record at the track from four runs overall yet Barry McHugh brings an 11% strike rate at Catterick from a big sample of 283 rides. He acts on good ground with one win and a place from five starts, and his run-style sees him usually held up to produce his effort late. The KTB Fit rating of 58 marks him out as the selection in a race where his Catterick success carries weight.
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2Dream Deal57/100
Dream Deal is a modest performer who has won three times at this track from 14 runs and also has three wins from 24 starts at today's trip. Consistent rather than progressive of late with a string of placed efforts mixed in with lesser ones, though the yard's solid 12% strike rate here from a huge sample offers some encouragement. He goes well on good ground with three wins and seven places from 15 starts. Usually held up to produce his effort late, the seven-year-old is dropping in class and arrives with a recent form sequence of 227407. The combination of course wins and the trainer's local record makes him a clear danger.
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3One Of Our Own57/100
One Of Our Own is a limited horse who has won three times at Catterick from nine runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with six wins from 39 starts. She acts on good ground though her strike rate is modest with only one win from 15 attempts. Rebecca Menzies has a 15% strike rate here from 259 runs while Clifford Lee is operating at 23% from 97 rides. Typically settling in midfield, her recent form reads 416365 and she holds a KTB Fit score of 57. The course record and jockey's strong track strike rate are the main positives in an otherwise modest profile.
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4Ideal Guest53/100
Ideal Guest is a limited performer who has shown some spark at this track with placed efforts on his last two visits. He drops back to his winning trip today having been outpaced over 7f last time, and he acts on good ground with two wins and four places from 11 starts. The trainer and jockey both have respectable records at Catterick, the combination showing a 40% strike rate from ten runs together. Tending to make the running or race on the pace from stall 1, his recent form is -30415. In a race with a strong pace likely he could be the one to set it and his placed course form adds interest.
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5Solar Cooper53/100
Solar Cooper is a modest performer who has won once on good ground and once at this trip. Dropping back from 7½f should suit but he has been below form on his last three starts and is drawn wide in stall 10. The trainer has a modest 9% strike rate here while the jockey is operating above expectations with a 17% record from 81 rides. Usually held up to produce his effort late, the three-year-old is dropping in class with recent form of 801696. His KTB Fit rating of 53 keeps him in the mix though the wide draw is a clear negative on this sharp track.
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6Kings Merchant49/100
Kings Merchant is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best form when winning over this trip on good ground last season. He has run respectably in both starts at Catterick without threatening to win and his recent form is mixed, with the trainer and jockey both holding established but modest records at the track.
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7Winter Crown48/100
Winter Crown is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but is 0-6 on good ground and was well below form when eighth on return last time. Dropping back from 7f looks a plus on balance yet the trainer's 2% strike-rate at Catterick from 98 runs is a clear negative, although the jockey has a solid 13% record here.
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8Pit Boss47/100
Pit Boss is a modest performer who has been consistent this year with form of 223313 and has won twice at today's trip. He has run twice at Catterick without placing and the trainer's poor 2% strike-rate here adds a negative, though the jockey has a solid record at the track and the horse has shown he can be competitive on good ground while dropping in class.
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9Eldeyaar38/100
Eldeyaar is a limited performer who has been busy this year and often finds a few too good. He has won at Catterick and at today's trip, and his record on good ground reads a respectable 2-4-5 from 11 starts, with the yard and jockey both having modest strike rates at the track while tending to make the running.
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10Aurora's Doublesix35/100
Aurora's Doublesix is a limited performer who has been out of the frame in all three runs at Catterick and looks no better than modest on recent form. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate here from a big sample while the claiming jockey is still seeking a first winner from 24 rides at the track, with no win or place on good ground from eight attempts.
KTB verdict
Hi Lord is the KTB Selection. A modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Catterick, he steps up in trip for the first time but brings a solid jockey record at the track and a held-up run-style that could be favoured if the strong pace collapses late. His KTB Fit rating of 58 edges him ahead of a clutch of rivals with similar profiles. The main dangers are Dream Deal, who has won three times at the track and goes well on good ground, and One Of Our Own, who also has a strong Catterick record and benefits from Clifford Lee's 23% strike rate here. Ideal Guest could make the running from stall one while Solar Cooper is another hold-up type dropping in class.
KTB Selection Hi Lord
This is the narrative read of the 3:36 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Catterick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest Catterick course record among the principals?
Dream Deal and One Of Our Own have each won three times at the track, with Dream Deal successful from 14 runs and One Of Our Own from nine.
How does the strong pace shape affect the hold-up horses in this race?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners is likely to collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses such as Hi Lord, Dream Deal, Solar Cooper, Kings Merchant, Winter Crown, Pit Boss and Aurora's Doublesix.
What are the trainer strike rates at Catterick for the connections of the top two in the KTB Fit ratings?
W H Harrison has no wins from four runs at Catterick while Tim Easterby has a 12% strike rate from 1930 runs.
Which runners are dropping in class for this contest?
Dream Deal, Solar Cooper and Pit Boss are all dropping in class.
Who are the two confirmed front-runners in the field?
Ideal Guest tends to make the running or race on the pace, as does Eldeyaar.
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