4:07 Worcester
This Class 4 handicap chase at Worcester over 2m0f110y on good ground brings together six smart performers, several of whom are dropping in class while others look to capitalise on recent placed efforts. The KTB Fit scores highlight a clear top four, headed by Park Annonciade on 69, with the remainder closely bunched between 63 and 58. Overall the numbers point to a competitive renewal where recent form, trip suitability and the uncontested pace shape will be key factors.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in late on. Siam Park is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to dictate terms from the outset. The other five runners are all held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort from off the pace, raising the key question of whether any will be able to bridge the gap to the clear leader in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Park Annonciade KTB Selection69/100
Park Annonciade arrives with a solid recent record of 3212-2 and has shown herself to be a smart performer with plenty of placed efforts on decent ground. She drops back to a trip at which she has won three times from 12 starts, although her record on good going shows just one win from 11 runs. The Sarah Humphrey yard has an 8% strike rate at Worcester from 39 runs with an A/E of 1.00, while Tom Cannon boasts an 11% strike rate from 184 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.16. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it. With an official rating of 117 and a KTB Fit of 69 this 8-year-old has to be considered the one to beat.
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2Tour Ovalie63/100
Tour Ovalie is a smart performer who has been a regular in stronger company than this Class 4 event. He drops back to a trip he handles well, with six wins from 21 starts at around 2m, and his record on good ground is solid with two wins from eight runs. The Mrs C Williams yard has a 9% strike rate at Worcester from 11 runs with an A/E of 1.08, while Adam Wedge has an 11% strike rate from 242 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.96. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment, he will be aiming to come from off the pace. This first run at Worcester comes off an official rating of 113 with a KTB Fit of 63, and the drop in class is a positive.
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3Kykorock60/100
Kykorock is a smart performer who arrives in good heart after three wins from his last five starts, showing consistent form with figures of 31131-. Dropping back from 3m to a trip at which he has already won twice is viewed as a positive move, although he is 0-2 on good ground with no win or place. The Dan Skelton yard has a 17% strike rate at Worcester from 425 runs with an A/E of 0.78, and Harry Skelton operates at a 20% strike rate from 401 rides with an A/E of 0.87. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, this 6-year-old will be looking to close late. Rated 117 officially with a KTB Fit of 60, he is another dropping in class.
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4Siam Park58/100
Siam Park is a smart performer who has been placed on both previous runs at this trip and showed decent form when third at Uttoxeter last time out. He has already placed here at Worcester on his only previous visit and handles good ground well with three wins from 14 starts. The Joe Tizzard yard has a 10% strike rate at Worcester from 29 runs with an A/E of 0.66, while Brendan Powell has a 9% strike rate from 248 rides with an A/E of 0.89. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is the one likely to take the uncontested lead according to the pace shape. Rated 115 officially with a KTB Fit of 58, the drop back from two and a half miles looks suitable.
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5Authoceltic54/100
Authoceltic is a smart performer who has placed on both starts here at Worcester and arrives in solid recent form with figures of 52152-. Dropping back to a trip where he has been placed three times without winning looks a fair fit on good ground where his record shows one win from six runs. The Mrs Jane Williams yard is still seeking a first Worcester winner from 28 attempts, while Ciaran Gethings has a 6% strike rate at the track from 137 rides with an A/E of 0.57.
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6Jasmin de Cotte40/100
Jasmin de Cotte is a smart performer who has shown useful form in stronger company and arrives here off the back of a solid fourth last time out with figures of 9613-4. Dropping back in trip having been placed at this distance without winning, the going looks suitable with one win and a place from five runs on good ground. The Tom Symonds yard has a 5% strike rate at Worcester from 65 runs with an A/E of 0.46, and Ben Poste has a 5% strike rate from 226 rides with an A/E of 0.74.
KTB verdict
Park Annonciade is the KTB Selection. She comes here with a consistent and smart recent record, drops to a trip at which she has won three times, and is ridden by a jockey with a solid Worcester record. The held-up run-style will see her aiming to close late in a race where the leader may get an easy lead, but her overall profile and KTB Fit of 69 make her the one to beat. The main dangers are Tour Ovalie, who drops in class from stronger company with a good record at the trip, and Kykorock, who is in good heart after three recent wins and also steps down in class, while Siam Park could take advantage of the lone-leader shape if allowed an uncontested run upfront.
KTB Selection Park Annonciade
This is the narrative read of the 4:07 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Worcester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most suited by the likely uncontested lead in the pace shape?
Siam Park, as the only front-runner in the field who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the runners are dropping in class?
Three: Tour Ovalie, Kykorock and Authoceltic.
Which horse has the strongest trainer-jockey combination record at Worcester?
Kykorock, with Dan Skelton at 17% strike rate and Harry Skelton at 20% strike rate at the track.
Which runner has course form at Worcester?
Siam Park has one run here when second, and Authoceltic has two runs here when fifth and second.
On which trip has Park Annonciade been most successful?
The 2m trip, where she has won three times from 12 starts.
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