4:25 Leopardstown
The Tonybet Solonaway Stakes is a Group 2 contest over a mile at Leopardstown on good ground, featuring a field of ten that lacks any obvious front-runner. With the pace shape pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends, the KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top horse on 69 while the remainder cluster between 60 and 41, suggesting a race that could hinge on positioning and a well-timed move off what is likely to be a modest gallop.
How the race shapes up
No horse is flagged as wanting to make the running, so the early fractions are expected to be steady with the field settling in a compact bunch. Most of the principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their effort late, meaning the race is likely to develop into a tactical sprint for the line in the final two furlongs. The key question is which horse can quicken most effectively off a slow tempo while avoiding traffic in a race where being caught wide or too far back could prove costly.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Quddwah KTB Selection69/100
Quddwah arrives with a KTB Fit of 69 and is the clear selection. A 6-year-old with recent form figures of 0-1412, he has shown strong ability in this company and possesses a solid record on good ground with four wins from eight starts. The Simon & Ed Crisford stable holds a 33% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.29, though the trainer and jockey combination overall shows 69 wins from 325 rides at 21% with an A/E of 0.86. James Doyle has a 14% strike rate at the track, and while Quddwah has no course form on record he is expected to be held up and produce his effort late in a race where timing will be everything.
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2Isaac Newton60/100
Isaac Newton is rated second on KTB Fit at 60. This 3-year-old brings progressive recent form of 451631 and has already won at this track from two starts. Aidan O'Brien's record at Leopardstown stands at 20% with an A/E of 0.88, while Ryan Moore is operating at a 33% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.9. The horse has two wins from six runs on good ground and will be held up, producing his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. He shapes as a major player in a steadily-run contest.
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3Faiyum55/100
Faiyum holds a KTB Fit of 55 and has consistent recent form of 21-342. The 4-year-old is another who will be held up and come late, fitting the expected shape of the race. Ger Lyons has an 11% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.81, while Colin Keane posts a 14% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.84. Faiyum has one win from three starts on good ground with three placings and, although he has no course form, his ability places him firmly in the mix.
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4Power Blue54/100
Power Blue is rated 54 on KTB Fit with recent form of 274410. This 3-year-old has shown placed form at Leopardstown, finishing second on his sole visit. The Robson De Aguiar yard has a 0% strike rate at the track from 14 runs, but David Egan brings a 13% record here with an A/E of 1.07. Power Blue has one win from five starts on good ground and will be held up with high confidence in that run-style. His course placings add interest in what looks a steadily-run affair.
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5Audience53/100
Audience is next on 53 KTB Fit and brings recent form of 009233. Now a 7-year-old, he has a strong record on good ground with four wins from 14 starts and eight placings. David O'Meara has a 15% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.85, while W J Lee is on 8% at the track with an A/E of 0.8. Audience has been placed both times he has run here, finishing third and second, and will be held up in a race where his course experience could prove useful.
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6Expanded53/100
Expanded has a KTB Fit of 53 and recent form of 996-22. The 4-year-old is tried in first-time headgear and will be held up with high confidence. Aidan O'Brien's 20% strike rate at Leopardstown is accompanied by a 27% record for this trainer-jockey combination with an A/E of 2.82. He has been placed both times this year and has course placings to his name.
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7Charles Fort52/100
Charles Fort carries a KTB Fit of 52 with recent form of 3419-2. This 3-year-old will be held up with high confidence and has been competitive on good ground without winning. Aidan O'Brien's record at the track stands at 20%, while Christophe Soumillon brings a 29% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.2.
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8Hazdann49/100
Hazdann is rated 49 on KTB Fit and has recent form of 1/4-71. The 4-year-old is held up with medium confidence in that style. Dermot Weld holds a 17% strike rate at Leopardstown, though Hazdann could only finish fourth on his sole previous run at the track.
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9Cowardofthecounty45/100
Cowardofthecounty has a KTB Fit of 45 and recent form of 821325. This 4-year-old will be held up with high confidence and has been placed at Leopardstown from four starts, including a second. Joseph Patrick O'Brien's 13% strike rate at the venue is paired with a yard record of two wins from seven on good ground.
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10Princess Child41/100
Princess Child is rated 41 on KTB Fit with recent form of 725006. The 5-year-old has been held up with high confidence but has failed to win or place in six runs on good ground. She has one previous run at Leopardstown, finishing fifth.
KTB verdict
Quddwah stands out on KTB Fit and is taken to land this Group 2. His ability on good ground, the yard's strong record at Leopardstown and the tactical nature of a steadily-run mile all play to his strengths as a horse who comes late with a well-judged move. Isaac Newton is the most obvious danger given his course win and the Moore/O'Brien combination, while Faiyum, Power Blue and Audience are the other principals who can feature in a race where the lack of an obvious leader makes positioning vital.
KTB Selection Quddwah
This is the narrative read of the 4:25 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Quddwah rated the top horse on KTB Fit?
Quddwah has a KTB Fit of 69, comfortably the highest in the field, reflecting his ability, good-ground record of four wins from eight starts and the trainer's positive 33% strike rate at Leopardstown.
How will the pace of the race unfold?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, so it is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy pays. Almost every runner is described as held up and producing effort late.
Which horses have previous placed form at Leopardstown?
Isaac Newton has won here from two starts, Power Blue has finished second once, Audience has been placed both times he has run here, Expanded has been placed once from two runs, and Cowardofthecounty has been placed once from four starts.
What is the significance of first-time headgear in the race?
Expanded is the only horse wearing first-time headgear.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Leopardstown in this field?
Ryan Moore has a 33% strike rate at Leopardstown from 248 rides with an A/E of 0.9, while Christophe Soumillon is on 29% from 21 rides with an A/E of 1.2.
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