4:40 Ayr
A competitive Class 4 handicap over six furlongs on heavy ground at Ayr features a field of eight where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 61 and 44. The race looks particularly interesting given the strong pace anticipated, with several hold-up performers in the line-up who could benefit if the front-runners go too hard. Roberto Caro tops the KTB Fit ratings at 61 and is the selection, though questions remain around his record at the track and unproven stamina for heavy conditions.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is expected to be run at a solid gallop from early on. Big Harry and Belsito are both inclined to make the running or race prominently, which could set up a collapse in the closing stages. That scenario would play into the hands of the hold-up horses, with Roberto Caro, Parisiac, Woven, Lord Bertie, Stirrup Cup and Ashen all typically coming from off the pace. The key question is whether the leaders overdo it on this testing ground, handing the advantage to those delivered late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Roberto Caro KTB Selection61/100
Roberto Caro is a fair performer on his best days and has won three times over this trip. He has been below form on his last few starts and his record at Ayr is poor with three runs yielding no better than 11th. The trainer has a solid 18% strike-rate here while the jockey is operating at 14%, but the horse remains unproven on heavy ground. Rated with a KTB Fit of 61 he tops the ratings in a race where his held-up style could prove ideal if the strong pace materialises as expected. Adrian Keatley and M. P. Sheehy combine with figures of 12/103 (12%) and an A/E of 0.99, offering a respectable platform. His recent form figures of 300074 underline a dip in performance that he will need to reverse.
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2Parisiac56/100
Parisiac is a fair performer who has won twice from six runs at Ayr and handles heavy ground well with a win from his only start on it. He has been in decent form this year with a string of placed efforts and steps up from five furlongs today having been placed five times from 18 starts at six furlongs. The yard has an 11 percent strike rate from over 900 runs at the track while the claiming jockey is operating at eight percent from a small sample of 25 rides here. With a KTB Fit of 56 he is one of the leading contenders and his held-up run-style should suit the anticipated strong pace. Dropping in class looks a positive and his recent form of 220893 shows consistent placed efforts. Iain Jardine and Jack Nicholls team up with a 10/40 (25%) record and A/E of 1.34.
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3Big Harry56/100
Big Harry is a fair 3-year-old who showed useful placed form last season and has already won on heavy ground. He also has a win at this trip on his record though his latest effort after a break was moderate. The yard has no previous runners at Ayr while Shane Gray's poor strike rate at the track is another negative. His KTB Fit stands at 56 and as a front-runner he is likely to be prominent in a race with a strong pace shape. Recent form reads 321-6, highlighting promise as a juvenile that has not yet been replicated this year. William Stone and Shane Gray combine with the jockey showing a 4% strike rate at Ayr from 206 rides.
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4Woven55/100
Woven is a fair 10-year-old who has won at both Ayr and this trip. He has shown consistent form without winning lately and acts on heavy ground with a win and two places from seven runs. The yard and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at the track. Holding a KTB Fit of 55 he is another who should relish the strong pace with his held-up style. Dropping in class could help and his recent form of 472959 reflects steady rather than sparkling efforts. Michael Dods and Connor Beasley have a 231/2155 (11%) record together with an A/E of 0.78.
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5Lord Bertie53/100
Lord Bertie is a fair performer who has shown up well at this track on his last three visits, finishing placed twice. He acts on heavy ground and has won over today's trip, though his recent form is patchy and he is 0-11 at this distance overall. The yard has a solid record here while the jockey's strike-rate is modest. His KTB Fit is 53 and he is another hold-up type who could be suited by a strong pace.
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6Belsito49/100
Belsito is a fair handicapper who has been in decent form this year with three wins from his last eight starts. He has placed once from three runs at Ayr and stays this trip well with five wins at 6f overall. The heavy ground is a question as he has only tried it once without success while both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track. With a KTB Fit of 49 his front-running style will put him right in the fray early.
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7Stirrup Cup48/100
Stirrup Cup is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and ran to a similar level when second over C&D in August. He has won three times at this trip but has never tackled heavy ground and that remains a big question mark. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Ayr. His KTB Fit is 48 and he will be held up in a race where the strong pace could play to his strengths.
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8Ashen44/100
Ashen is a modest performer who has won once from three starts at Ayr and arrives in reasonable form with a string of recent placed efforts. He steps up to 6f for the first time having looked as though the extra furlong would suit when placed at the trip earlier in his career. Trainer and jockey both have solid long-term records at the track though the yard's strike-rate here is only 10 percent, while the horse remains unproven on heavy ground. Rated with a KTB Fit of 44 he is the lowest in the rankings.
KTB verdict
Roberto Caro is the KTB Selection at the head of the Fit ratings and his held-up style looks well suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold. He remains a fair performer on his best days with three wins over the trip to his name, though his poor record at Ayr and lack of experience on heavy ground are clear negatives that cannot be ignored. Parisiac and Woven both have strong course form and proven heavy-ground ability, while Big Harry could make the running and take some catching if the pace does not overcook. The race could easily fall to one of the patient runners if the leaders fold late on this testing surface.
KTB Selection Roberto Caro
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on heavy ground but tops the KTB Fit ratings?
Roberto Caro with a KTB Fit of 61.
How many wins has Parisiac recorded at Ayr?
Two wins from six runs at Ayr.
Which front-runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Big Harry and Belsito are the habitual front-runners.
What is Woven's record on heavy ground?
One win from seven runs on heavy with two additional places.
Which horse has shown placed form on its last three visits to Ayr?
Lord Bertie, finishing placed twice from those three runs.
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