4:40 Gowran Park
The 4:40 at Gowran Park is a nine-runner Fillies Maiden over 1m1f100y on yielding to soft ground. The KTB numbers point to a competitive but modestly rated field overall, with four principals separated by relatively small Fit margins and the rest trailing a little further back. Most of the runners are unproven on the surface, which adds an extra layer of uncertainty to an already open-looking maiden.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will be allowed an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to bridge. Sangreal is the only front-runner in the line-up and looks set to take that role, while the remainder are predominantly held-up types who will be asked to come from off the pace. The key question is whether anything from behind can close the gap on a clear leader on this ground, or whether the uncontested advantage will be decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Shanala KTB Selection58/100
Shanala arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 58 and is the clear selection. Rated OR 80, she has shown consistent placed form this term with figures of 54324 and looks the pick on ability. Trained by J. P. Murtagh, who has an 18% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.11, she is ridden by Ben Coen whose own course record reads 14% with an A/E of 1.07. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need the leader to come back to her, though the yard's local record is a positive. Unproven on yielding to soft and with only a fifth to her name from one previous run here, she remains the one to beat on the supplied figures.
-
2Miss Kiss55/100
Miss Kiss is rated just behind on a KTB Fit Score of 55. A 4-year-old by Belardo, she has a 10% overall win rate attached to that sire line. Trained by Daniel McLoughlin, who posts a 12% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 2.24, she teams up with Nathan Crosse who has a 4% course record and an A/E of 0.68. Without a course win to her name and with no specific ground or course form highlighted, she will need to improve on what she has shown to date to play a major role from draw 4.
-
3Sangreal49/100
Sangreal holds a KTB Fit Score of 49 and brings the best recent form in the shape of 2334. Rated OR 77, the Joseph Patrick O'Brien-trained filly is a front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently and could therefore take the uncontested lead according to the pace shape. The yard has a 14% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.8, while jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle is 16% here with an A/E of 0.78. She has placed once from one run at the track but remains unproven on yielding to soft, leaving her with questions to answer on the surface despite her prominent run style.
-
4Sunburn46/100
Sunburn is next up on a KTB Fit Score of 46. She has shown only modest form in two starts with figures of 66 and is unproven on yielding to soft. Trained by John Joseph Murphy, whose record at Gowran Park is 5% with an A/E of 0.84, she is ridden by G. F. Carroll who has a 9% course strike rate and an A/E of 0.85. Usually held up and producing her effort late from a wide draw of 9, she has no course form on record and will need to step up markedly if she is to feature.
-
5Fleur De Provence46/100
Fleur De Provence has a KTB Fit Score of 46. Rated OR 76 with form figures of 2293, she has placed once from one run at Gowran Park. Trained by D K Weld with a 16% local strike rate and an A/E of 0.84, she is ridden by Chris Hayes whose course record is 6% with an A/E of 0.53. Usually held up, she is unproven on yielding to soft.
-
6Serendipia46/100
Serendipia carries a KTB Fit Score of 46. Rated OR 72 with form of 843357, she is now fitted with first-time headgear. Trained by W. McCreery who has an 11% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.99, she is ridden by W. J. Lee who is 10% here with an A/E of 0.86. Usually held up and with one placed effort from one run at the track, she is unproven on yielding to soft.
-
7Hey Sista44/100
Hey Sista has a KTB Fit Score of 44. A 3-year-old by Waldgeist, she is out of a sire with a 9% overall win rate. Trained by R Donohoe whose Gowran Park record is 3% with an A/E of 0.34, she is ridden by Andrew Slattery who has a 10% course strike rate and an A/E of 0.95. She has no course win on record.
-
8The Blonde Lady41/100
The Blonde Lady is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 41. Her form reads 00 and she is unproven on yielding to soft. Trained by A. J. Martin who has a 6% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.56, she is ridden by Robbie Colgan whose local record is 5% with an A/E of 0.83. Usually held up with limited evidence, she has no course form on record.
-
9Emberelle40/100
Emberelle has a KTB Fit Score of 40. Rated OR 71 with form figures of 803, she is trained by John Joseph Murphy whose Gowran Park record is 5% with an A/E of 0.84. Ridden by Shane Foley who has a 9% strike rate here and an A/E of 0.73, she is usually held up and remains unproven on yielding to soft with no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Shanala stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 58 and the strongest combination of ability and yard support at this venue. Her consistent placed form sets the standard, and the trainer-jockey combination both hold above-average records at Gowran Park. The main dangers are likely to be Sangreal if she is allowed an easy lead, and Fleur De Provence who has shown placed form at the track, though several in the field remain unproven on the prevailing yielding to soft ground.
KTB Selection Shanala
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Shanala | 15/8 | Bet365 |
| Miss Kiss | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Sangreal | 9/4 | BetTom |
| Sunburn | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Fleur De Provence | 10/3 | Bet365 |
| Serendipia | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Hey Sista | 66/1 | BetTom |
| The Blonde Lady | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Emberelle | 15/2 | BoyleSports |
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Gowran Park racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Sangreal is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many runners are unproven on yielding to soft ground?
The majority of the field have no runs on yielding to soft, including Shanala, Sangreal, Sunburn, Fleur De Provence, Serendipia, The Blonde Lady and Emberelle.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Gowran Park among those represented?
D K Weld has a 16% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.84.
Which jockey has the best course record at Gowran Park in this race?
Ben Coen has a 14% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.07.
What is the run-style of the KTB Selection?
Shanala is usually held up and produces her effort late.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies