4:50 Gowran Park
This 2m4f beginners chase at Gowran Park on yielding to soft ground brings together a field of 12, several with placed or winning form over similar distances but few with extensive experience in this discipline. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but not overwhelming contest, with Daydream Nation heading the numbers on 62 and a cluster of contenders in the low-to-mid 50s. Course form and ground adaptability are likely to prove influential, as is the trainer form at this venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is clear with a lone leader expected to have an uncontested lead, given the lack of other prominent runners. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who will be settling towards the rear and looking to produce their efforts from off the pace. This sets up a key question of whether the uncontested leader can dictate and prove hard to peg back on this ground, or whether one of the patient runners can bridge the gap in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Daydream Nation KTB Selection62/100
Daydream Nation showed useful form when winning over this trip at Gowran on his penultimate start and has already won on this track from just one visit. He has been below that level on his last two runs though and steps up in trip again today which asks a fresh question. The trainer holds a solid record at Gowran while the jockey's strike rate at the track is modest. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he has been placed once from one run on yielding to soft. With a KTB Fit of 62 he tops the numbers in a race where course winners carry extra weight.
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2Arcadian Emperor56/100
Arcadian Emperor showed steady improvement in four starts last season and finished with a clear-cut win over this trip at the end of the campaign. He now tries first-time headgear and steps back into action for a yard that operates at a 23% strike rate here. The trip looks suitable but the going remains an unknown on such limited evidence. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he carries a KTB Fit of 56. The trainer and jockey combination has a positive 10/41 record with an A/E of 1.15.
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3Champagne Jury52/100
Champagne Jury has won over course and distance but that success came in a weak race and he has failed to build on it in stronger company since. Three runs at today's trip have produced no wins or places while the yard and jockey both record modest strike rates here. Lightly raced overall with some ability but looks vulnerable back at this level. Usually held up, he has a KTB Fit of 52 and is unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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4Bon Viveur52/100
Bon Viveur has shown smart ability in his short career with two wins from five starts yet also carries a fall on his latest outing. He drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow at this distance on his only previous attempt. The yard and jockey both hold strong 23% strike rates at Gowran Park. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he arrives with a KTB Fit of 52 and is unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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5Mullaghgloss46/100
Mullaghgloss arrives in reasonable form having shown a clear preference for yielding to soft ground where he is one from one. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate here from 322 runs while the jockey is 3% from 30 rides. Usually held up, he has a KTB Fit of 46 and recent form that includes placed efforts.
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6Good Option46/100
Good Option has shown steady improvement in recent starts and was a clear second at this trip last time out. Dropping back slightly in distance looks a fair move and the placed effort at today's trip is a positive. The trainer has a solid 9% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey's 3% record from 37 rides is more modest. Usually held up with a KTB Fit of 46, he is unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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7Sir Allen45/100
Sir Allen has been a consistent if limited performer in recent starts and steps up in trip today having already placed without winning over this distance. He showed some competitiveness on yielding to soft ground but has only run once at Gowran Park where he finished fifth. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate from 322 runs here while the jockey is on 8% from 37 rides at the track. Usually settling in midfield with a KTB Fit of 45.
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8Forty Coats45/100
Forty Coats has shown some ability with a placed effort at this trip from four attempts, though his overall form is modest with a string of mid-field finishes last season. He drops back in trip today having last run over 2m5f, while the yielding to soft ground remains an unknown as he has never encountered it. The yard holds a solid 13% strike rate at Gowran from a big sample, but the jockey is operating at a lower 8% here. Usually held up with a KTB Fit of 45.
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9Lemmy Caution45/100
Lemmy Caution has shown fair form this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts though he was well held when last seen over the longer 2m7½f trip. He now drops back in distance to a trip he has never tried which poses a fresh question while he remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Gowran Park on their first run here with this horse. A front-runner with a KTB Fit of 45.
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10I Started A Joke44/100
I Started A Joke has shown consistent placed form at up to 3m and drops back in trip today having already been placed at 2m4f. He handles yielding to soft ground well with a win and a place from just two runs on it. The yard posts a 10% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 4% from a small sample. Usually held up with a KTB Fit of 44.
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11Siege Of Carthage44/100
Siege Of Carthage has shown fair form this season with a win and two placed efforts from his last five starts. He drops back to a trip he has won at before though his latest run over almost identical distance was poor. The yard has yet to strike at Gowran from 11 attempts while the jockey operates at a 6% strike rate here from a big sample. Usually held up with a KTB Fit of 44 and placed once from one run at the course.
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12Leni's Law44/100
Leni's Law has shown mixed form across five runs and remains lightly raced overall. She drops back to 2m4f where she has been placed once in four starts at the trip though she has never won over it. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate at Gowran from 154 runs while the jockey is on 6% from 327 rides here. Usually held up with a KTB Fit of 44 and unproven on yielding to soft ground.
KTB verdict
Daydream Nation is the KTB Selection. He showed useful form when winning over this trip at Gowran on his penultimate start and has already won on this track from just one visit, with the trainer holding a solid record at the venue. While he has been below that level on his last two runs and steps up in trip again today which asks a fresh question, the combination of course form and the uncontested lead likely to be set should play to his strengths as a late runner. His main dangers are Arcadian Emperor, who showed steady improvement and won over this trip last season before now trying first-time headgear for a strong yard, and Bon Viveur, who has shown smart ability despite a fall on his latest start and benefits from the powerful Mullins-Townend combination at this track.
KTB Selection Daydream Nation
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over course and distance?
Champagne Jury has won over course and distance, though that success came in a weak race.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All five principals are held-up types who usually produce their effort late.
Which horse is the only one to have won on yielding to soft ground?
Mullaghgloss is one from one on yielding to soft ground.
Who sets the pace according to the race shape?
Lemmy Caution tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the only front-runner in the field.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Gowran Park among those represented?
W. P. Mullins has a 23% strike rate at Gowran Park from 1070 runs.
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