5:05 Downpatrick
The 5:05 at Downpatrick is a nine-runner McGrady Financial Services Beginners Steeplechase over 2m3f100y on good ground. A field mixing smart and useful performers lines up, several with placed form or recent wins to their name but with questions over trip, ground and track record. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Astley on 64, with Iamagetaway, Down Around and Oh Janey all within four points and the remainder trailing off from 52 downwards.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Down Around is the most likely to take that role given his front-running style, though Ring Of Kerry has also shown early pace in the past and could press or share it. Most of the field, including the selection Astley, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any of the closers possess the necessary finishing speed to reel in a clear leader on this stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Astley KTB Selection64/100
Astley arrives as the KTB selection with a Fit Score of 64. A smart performer, he has produced solid recent form built around a string of placed efforts. He drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at this distance and has yet to show any spark on good ground in three starts. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 1.82 from 10 runs, while the jockey boasts a 19% strike rate at the track from 177 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to time his run perfectly if the anticipated uncontested lead materialises.
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2Iamagetaway61/100
Iamagetaway is rated just behind on a KTB Fit Score of 61. A useful performer, he ran creditably when third on his penultimate start before a lesser effort last time out. He drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at this distance, while first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 50% strike rate at Downpatrick from a small sample of four runs with an A/E of 3.1, though the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate from 208 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a steadily run affair.
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3Down Around60/100
Down Around carries a KTB Fit Score of 60. A smart performer who has won four times this year, he looks well treated on his best form. He showed only modest form on his one previous run here and the drop back from 3m2f raises a question about his effectiveness at this shorter trip. The trainer has an 18% strike rate at Downpatrick from 948 runs with an A/E of 0.88, while the jockey is operating at 16% from 64 rides here with an A/E of 1.01. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is the obvious candidate to set the uncontested lead that the pace shape suggests.
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4Oh Janey53/100
Oh Janey is next up with a KTB Fit Score of 53. A useful performer, she has already won once over this course in four runs and arrives in reasonable form after a string of solid efforts. She is dropping back in trip today to a distance she has never tried, which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at Downpatrick from 204 runs with an A/E of 0.57, though this is offset by the jockey's stronger 10% record at the track from 154 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need to find extra if the leader is allowed an easy time up front.
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5Rockstown Girl52/100
Rockstown Girl has a KTB Fit Score of 52. A useful mare, she has placed on three of her last four starts including a third here over further. Dropping back to a trip she has won at before looks a plus while her record on good ground is solid enough. The trainer has a modest 6% strike-rate at Downpatrick from 33 runs with an A/E of 0.73, though the jockey has a better recent record at the track.
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6Ring Of Kerry52/100
Ring Of Kerry has a KTB Fit Score of 52. He showed improved form when winning a 2m2f maiden at this track last summer and followed up with a solid third in a handicap here over 2m1f. He has only had four starts in total and remains lightly raced, though he was well held when last seen in October. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate from 48 runs at Downpatrick while the jockey is operating at 11% from 53 rides here.
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7River Tara47/100
River Tara has a KTB Fit Score of 47. She has won once from two runs at Downpatrick and showed some encouragement when third on her latest start after a lengthy break. She drops back from 3m2f to a trip she has never tried, which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has a modest 12% strike-rate here from 49 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% from 131 rides.
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8Kalsman46/100
Kalsman has a KTB Fit Score of 46. A useful performer, he has won once from 11 starts at Downpatrick and holds solid placed form at today's trip. Recent efforts have been patchy with a pulled-up last time and a modest 3% strike-rate for the trainer here from 247 runs does not inspire confidence. The jockey is also operating at a low 5% strike-rate at the track while the horse has shown only ordinary form on good ground.
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9Parkgarve43/100
Parkgarve has a KTB Fit Score of 43. A useful performer who has already won over this course, he has failed to land a blow in five tries at this trip and his recent form has been patchy at best. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates here.
KTB verdict
Astley is the KTB Selection. A smart performer with solid recent form built around placed efforts, he is expected to come forward for the drop back in trip and the booking of Jack Kennedy. His held-up style should see him delivered late against the anticipated lone leader, and the trainer's positive A/E at the track offers further encouragement. The main dangers are Iamagetaway, who is similarly held up and now tries first-time headgear, and Down Around, who is likely to set the pace and has strong recent winning form. Oh Janey cannot be entirely dismissed either given her course success.
KTB Selection Astley
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Downpatrick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Downpatrick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Down Around, whose front-running style makes him the natural candidate given the lone-leader pace shape.
How many of the principals are held-up runners?
Three of the four principals – Astley, Iamagetaway and Oh Janey – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has the strongest recent winning record in the field?
Down Around has won four times this year.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Downpatrick among those with small-sample data?
W R Crawford has a 50% strike rate at Downpatrick from four runs.
How many horses in the race have course wins to their name?
Four horses have won at Downpatrick: Oh Janey, River Tara, Kalsman and Parkgarve.
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