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Trainer profile

Paul Traynor

157 runners in the last 5 seasons · 25 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 11 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2022
6–157
Wins / Runs
3.8%
Strike rate
n=157
16 (10%)
Placed
0.93
Fair A/E
n=157 · 0.77 incl. margin
−117.71
£1 level stake
n=157 at SP · −75.0%
£94,198
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
4.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.93). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 7% off breaks of two months or more (31 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 157 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 6.5% Claiming riders: 4.1%
The read

The yard also reads well on Good going (7%, n=43). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 0% over 46 runners, 3.8pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Shumaker (IRE) — 7 wins from 35 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.5%+2.7
n=31 · A/E 2.47 · £1 −15.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.8
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.8
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.8
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
When favourite
100%
n=2 · A/E 2.29 · £1 +4.29
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.1%+0.3
n=98 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −65.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Soft going 0% vs 3.8% · n=46
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 0% vs 3.8% · n=33
On Good going 7% vs 3.8% · n=43
With a new jockey booking 6.4% vs 3.8% · n=94
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 6.5% vs 3.8% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 83 4 4.8% −59.21
Hurdle 46 1 2.2% −37.00
Chase 17 0 0% −17.00
NH Flat 11 1 9.1% −4.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 46 0 0% −46.00
Good 43 3 7% −28.21
Standard (AW) 27 0 0% −27.00
Good to Soft 24 3 12.5% +0.50
Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00
Good to Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 27 0 0% −27.00
Down Royal 24 0 0% −24.00
Naas 13 2 15.4% +5.00
Punchestown 12 0 0% −12.00
Ayr 7 1 14.3% −2.00
Navan 7 0 0% −7.00
Clonmel 7 0 0% −7.00
Gowran Park 7 0 0% −7.00
Curragh 6 0 0% −6.00
Fairyhouse 5 0 0% −5.00
Leopardstown 5 0 0% −5.00
Downpatrick 5 0 0% −5.00
Bellewstown 4 0 0% −4.00
Tramore 4 0 0% −4.00
Kilbeggan 4 1 25% +2.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 3 4 1 25% +4.50
Class 6 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 4 3 1 33.3% +2.00
Class 5 3 1 33.3% −1.71
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 2 100% 2.29 +4.29
2nd–3rd fav 5 1 20% 1.31 +4.00
4th–6th fav 31 3 9.7% 1.32 −7.00
7th+ in betting 119 0 0% 0.00 −119.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Fiver Friday (IRE)then Gavin Cromwell 28 5 9 22 Aug 25
Ledger (IRE) 17 0 0 26 May 26
Astley (IRE) 12 0 1 9 Oct 26
Hi Sur Multi (GB)from Gary McGill · then H Smyth 12 0 1 22 Mar 24
Stansfield (IRE) 10 0 1 9 May 24
Stonyfalls (IRE) 9 0 1 1 Oct 26
Boing (GB)from Miss Clare Louise Cannon 8 0 0 2 Nov 22
Ruhm Und Ehre (IRE) 8 0 2 24 May 22
Pedro The Poet (IRE)then Nicky Richards 7 0 0 26 May 26
Portnablagh (IRE) 5 0 0 16 Jun 25
Anjician (IRE) 5 0 0 10 Aug 24
Iguis (FR) 5 0 0 8 Sep 23
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 25 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ronan M P McNally (2); 18 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00014050120000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Sam Ewing 13 0 0% −13.00
Seamie Heffernan 9 0 0% −9.00
Liam McKenna 8 1 12.5% +1.00
Wayne Hassett 7 1 14.3% +2.00
Mr R Guiney 7 0 0% −7.00
Darragh O'Keeffe 6 0 0% −6.00
Shane Fitzgerald 6 0 0% −6.00
John Shinnick 5 0 0% −5.00
J M Sheridan 5 0 0% −5.00
Ben Curtis 4 1 25% −2.71
Alex Harvey 4 0 0% −4.00
Jack Kearney 4 0 0% −4.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
16
Archived wins
£214k
Prize money
2020
Best season · 4 wins
Fiver Friday (IRE) — Sky Bet Request A Bet Fillies' Handicap Hamilton · Jun 2024 · Class 3
£14,947
Fiver Friday (IRE) — TRM Speedxcell Multi Vitamin And Mineral Tonic Handicap Naas · Aug 2024
£12,980
Stansfield (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Rated Novice Chase Down Royal · Feb 2021
£10,915
Notable horses
Shumaker (IRE) Fiver Friday (IRE) Lusis Naturea (GB) Stansfield (IRE) Kershaw (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
The Gurkha (IRE) 17.9% · 5–28
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,022 runs since 2008 (127 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.7% from 183. Weakest on Heavy going: 2.9% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 111.
Profitable (IRE) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,408 runs since 2008 (356 horses).
Multiplex (GB) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,180 runs since 2008 (291 horses).
Order Of St George (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 9.6% of 1,133 runs since 2008 (197 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.5% from 474.
Thousand Words (GB) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 6.7% of 932 runs since 2008 (68 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.2% from 226. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 133.
Supremacy (IRE) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 8.5% of 553 runs since 2008 (93 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.7% from 149.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 283 · newest first

The latest 50 of 283 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 July 2019 to 9 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Astley (IRE)J: Jack Kennedy McGrady Financial Services Beginners Steeplechase19.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 11/2
03 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Astley (IRE)J: Sam Ewing Sign up to – GavinLynchRacing.com Handicap Steeplechase20f · Good To Yielding · 6 ran 3rd 8/1
01 Oct 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Stonyfalls (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Bluegrass Horse Feed Handicap8f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran 9th 14/1
19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Staton (IRE)J: Philip Byrnes Meath Farm Machinery Maiden Hurdle21f · Good · 15 ran 11th 125/1
28 Aug 26 Down Royal (IRE) Astley (IRE)J: Philip Byrnes Tayto Group Limited Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 15 ran 4th 17/2
26 Aug 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Staton (IRE)J: Philip Byrnes Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good · 14 ran 12th 66/1
13 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Stonyfalls (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Heights Hotel, Killarney Handicap11.5f · Good · 14 ran 11th 28/1
02 Jul 26 Bellewstown Stonyfalls (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Champion Lettings Handicap (0-60)8f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 25/1
19 Jun 26 Down Royal Stonyfalls (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Laura Nicholas Memorial Handicap (0-60)7f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 40/1
29 May 26 Down Royal Stonyfalls (IRE)J: Siobhan Rutledge BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap (0-60)7f · Good · 14 ran 6th 66/1
26 May 26 Dundalk (AW) Pedro The Poet (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Maiden10.5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 20/1
26 May 26 Dundalk (AW) Ledger (IRE)J: Siobhan Rutledge Irishinjuredjockeys.com Optional Claiming Race8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 150/1
04 May 26 Down Royal Astley (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Club Orange Beginners Chase19.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 6/1
25 Apr 26 Navan Pedro The Poet (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Future Stars Raceday 16th May Handicap10f · Good To Yielding · 23 ran 15th 40/1
24 Apr 26 Kilbeggan Kershaw (IRE)J: Mr O McGill Racing Again On Friday 15th May Flat Race16.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 1st 11/2
24 Apr 26 Kilbeggan Astley (IRE)J: Alex Harvey William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Beginners Chase22.5f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 5th 25/1
12 Apr 26 Down Royal Astley (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Giddy Up And Switch To Fibrus Broadband Beginners Chase20.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 16/1
27 Mar 26 Dundalk (AW) Pedro The Poet (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce BAR 1 Betting 'Join Our Weekly Rewards' Maiden8f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 66/1
21 Mar 26 Navan Astley (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Hurdle22.5f · Soft · 5 ran 5th 200/1
15 Mar 26 Curragh Pedro The Poet (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Final Furlong Podcast With 1xBet.ie (C & G) Maiden8f · Heavy · 23 ran 15th 80/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Traynor's strike rate?
Paul Traynor has won 6 of 157 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 3.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Paul Traynor in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paul Traynor's Fair A/E?
0.93, from 157 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).