4:30 Downpatrick
The 4:30 at Downpatrick is a 15-runner Tennent's NI Handicap Hurdle over 2m5f180y on good ground. A field mixing fair and modest performers lines up, with the KTB Fit scores highlighting a clear top pick on 62 while the remainder cluster between 55 and 35. The race lacks an obvious leader and is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which positioning and timing will be key.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runner in the field, the pace is expected to be no more than steady and the race is likely to develop into a tactical test. Those who race handily or can be positioned in midfield without using too much energy early should hold an advantage. The key question is which horse can produce its effort at the right time on this sharper track when the tempo lifts in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mister Vic KTB Selection62/100
Mister Vic is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this track with two placed efforts from three runs. He drops back in trip today having last run over three miles and holds a solid record at this distance with one win from three attempts. The trainer has only had two runners here so that is too small a sample to judge while the 7lb claimer has a strong 60 percent strike rate from five rides at Downpatrick. His recent form figures of 18-000 do not tell the full story given the placed efforts at this venue. Settling typically in midfield should suit the expected steady pace. With an official rating of 98 he carries a fair weight for an 8-year-old who knows his way around Downpatrick.
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2Sekakarma55/100
Sekakarma is a fair performer with a solid recent record that includes a win and two placed efforts in his last six starts. He showed some ability when fourth on his only previous run here and handles good ground, where he has a win and three places from six attempts. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of him while the trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Downpatrick contrasts with the jockey's stronger 16% record at the track. Donagh Meyler takes the ride on the 9-year-old who races from an official rating of 87. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be hoping the steady pace allows him to come home strongly. His form figures of 942317 underline that he remains competitive at this level.
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3Hob's Angel54/100
Hob's Angel is a fair 10-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win and two places from his last six starts. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and steps up in trip today having already placed over this distance. Course form is modest with two unplaced efforts here while the trainer holds an 8% strike rate at Downpatrick from 25 runs. The 3lb claimer Josh Williamson partners him from an official rating of 76 with recent form figures of 125364. Usually held up, he will look to produce his effort late in what is set to be a tactical affair. The combination of trainer and jockey strike rates at the track offers some encouragement.
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4Katie's Casper50/100
Katie's Casper is a fair handicapper who has shown his best form at this track, finishing third on his latest visit here. He drops back in trip today having been out of the money on his only previous run at this distance, while his record on good ground is competitive but winless. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 165 runs at Downpatrick and the jockey is operating at 14% from 95 rides. From an official rating of 79 and with form figures of 952509, he is another who usually races held up. His placed effort at the course on his most recent visit suggests he can be involved if the steady pace plays to his strengths. The 7-year-old has been given a chance by the handicapper.
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5King Of Westeros49/100
King Of Westeros is a useful performer who has shown ability on his better days yet has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He drops back in trip today which asks a fresh question while the 7 lb claimer has yet to trouble the judge from his seven rides at Downpatrick. Trainer Gordon Elliott continues to operate at a solid 18% strike rate here from a huge volume of runners. The 5-year-old carries an official rating of 97 with recent form figures of F74P-0. Usually held up, he will need to find some of his old spark in a race where being handy is expected to pay. The booking of Kevin Healy is the only slight negative at this venue.
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6Glendaars Crystal49/100
Glendaars Crystal is a fair sort who has shown little in five runs to date and was well held when eighth on his only previous visit to Downpatrick. He steps up markedly in trip today with only a small amount of form to go on so this looks like an unknown quantity.
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7Soldier Saint48/100
Soldier Saint is a fair performer who has been out of form lately with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip today having already placed at this distance without winning, while he has also shown he can be competitive on good ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Downpatrick.
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8Jimli's Cave47/100
Jimli's Cave is a fair performer who has won both here and at today's trip. He has been out of form this season with a string of modest efforts and no win on good ground from 12 starts. The trainer's modest record at Downpatrick is offset by the jockey's solid 17% strike rate at the track.
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9Tara Boe46/100
Tara Boe is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and race history. She showed little in three runs this year after a long absence and was only fourth when tried here once before. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Downpatrick is offset by the jockey's solid 14% record at the track, while today's longer trip is an unknown.
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10Ersudaly46/100
Ersudaly is a fair performer who has struggled since a fall last year, finishing well beaten on all three starts this season. He drops back in trip having looked stretched over three miles last time, though he showed nothing at this distance on his only previous attempt. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Downpatrick and the horse has a previous run here.
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11Youknowme43/100
Youknowme is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his one visit to Downpatrick when finishing third. He steps up in trip today for the first time having last run over 2m2f so that asks a fresh question. Trainer has a modest 7% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 9%.
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12The Chancie Grey43/100
The Chancie Grey is a fair maiden who has shown ordinary form in three starts at shorter trips. He now steps up markedly in distance which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a modest record at Downpatrick while the jockey is still seeking a first winner here from 36 rides.
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13Kared'as de Cougny41/100
Kared'as de Cougny is a fair performer who has shown some ability on his day but arrives on the back of a poor 0-6 finish last time and is now dropped in trip to a distance he has never tried. He makes his first visit to Downpatrick where the trainer holds an 11% strike-rate from 315 runs and the jockey is on 10% from 78 rides. Only one run on good ground provides limited evidence he will handle today's going.
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14Vroomvroomboo40/100
Vroomvroomboo is a fair performer who has shown bits of form but has been below best on his last three starts. He has run respectably without winning at this track and has been competitive on good ground, though the trainer's modest 2% strike rate here is a concern. The 7 lb claimer helps and the drop back in trip is an unknown that could suit.
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15Doyen Og35/100
Doyen Og is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has run just once at Downpatrick and was a fair fourth there but the yard is struggling at the track with a 0% strike rate from 22 runs. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while the jockey's modest 8% strike rate from 13 rides adds little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Mister Vic stands out as the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who has shown his best form at Downpatrick with two placed efforts from three runs and drops back to a trip where he has a solid record. The 7lb claimer brings a strong 60% strike rate at the track and his ability to settle in midfield should be ideal in a steadily-run affair. The main dangers are Sekakarma, who brings a recent win and placed form along with a strong jockey record here, and Hob's Angel, who has been competitive of late and steps up in trip having already placed at the distance. Katie's Casper and King Of Westeros add further depth but need to show more than they have of late.
KTB Selection Mister Vic
This is the narrative read of the 4:30 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Downpatrick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Downpatrick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does Mister Vic drop back in trip today?
He last ran over three miles and holds a solid record at this distance with one win from three attempts.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
Lacking a leader it is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Downpatrick with King Of Westeros?
Gordon Elliott operates at an 18% strike rate at Downpatrick from 948 runs.
Which horse has won both at Downpatrick and at today's trip?
Jimli's Cave.
What is Sekakarma's record on good ground?
One win and three places from six attempts.
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