5:37 Downpatrick
This 2m7f150y Northern Ireland On Course Bookmakers Association Handicap Steeplechase at Downpatrick on good ground brings together a field of 14, most of them with placed or winning form at the track but few in top form. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the head of the market, with five principals rated between 51 and 53, underlining how little separates them on paper. The race is likely to revolve around an uncontested lead, which places extra emphasis on those who can travel well and produce their effort at the right time.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader and high-confidence pace shape, one horse is expected to bowl along in front with little pressure from the rest of the field. The majority of runners, including all five principals, are held-up types who will be settling towards the rear and looking to close late. That asks the key question of whether any of the closers possess the necessary finishing speed to reel in an uncontested leader over this stiff trip on good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Fr Gilligansvoyge53/100
Fr Gilligansvoyge is a fair 13-year-old with a solid record here, including a win from seven starts at Downpatrick. He has shown decent form this year with two wins in his last six runs but drops back from 3m2f to a trip he has won over before. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track is a negative while the jockey's 11% from only nine rides offers a small positive. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be among those trying to come from off the pace in a race with an uncontested leader. His recent form of 211206 shows he remains competitive at this level when things fall right.
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2Custers Mistake KTB Selection53/100
Custers Mistake is a useful performer who has won once from four runs at Downpatrick and holds strong course connections. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m1f and shown no joy in two previous tries at this distance. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 193 runs at the track is a negative while the jockey has only one ride here so far. Usually held up with high confidence and producing his effort late, he will need to find a way to bridge the gap to the clear leader. His form of /821-P suggests ability remains, and the selection comes down to whether the extra stamina can be found at this trip on good ground.
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3Three By Two53/100
Three By Two is a useful performer on his day but has been out of form for a while and failed to complete on his most recent start. He drops back in trip having been placed without winning at this distance before, while the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Downpatrick adds little confidence. The jockey has a slightly better 8% record here but the horse remains hard to fancy on recent evidence. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be another trying to come from the rear in a race with a clear leader. His form of P0476- highlights the lack of spark in recent efforts.
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4Lecale's Diamond53/100
Lecale's Diamond is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning over this trip earlier in the season. He ran respectably when fourth over course and distance on his only previous try here though he was well held on his latest start over much further. Cromwell and Donoghue both have solid records at Downpatrick, the trainer at 15% and the jockey at 14%, and the return to this shorter trip looks a positive. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be looking to produce his effort late against an uncontested leader. His form of 6-4189 includes that earlier win at today's trip and the C&D fourth that shows he handles this venue.
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5Malton Groove51/100
Malton Groove is a fair performer who has been placed on his only previous visit to Downpatrick and shows a solid record when the ground is good. He steps up in trip today having already been placed at this distance without winning, while the first-time headgear is another new factor to weigh up. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate here from 165 runs and the jockey is operating at 14% from 95 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be among those coming from off the pace. His recent form of 7236FP is mixed but the placed efforts and course second give him a foothold at this level.
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6Shantou Show50/100
Shantou Show is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. He has shown competitive form on good ground without winning and his recent efforts have been modest. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Downpatrick is worth noting while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. Usually held up with high confidence, his form of -73P55 reflects a lack of spark lately despite the course win on his record.
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7Mobile Mamma50/100
Mobile Mamma is a fair mare who has shown consistent placed form this year and brings a solid recent record of 3-2036. She steps up in trip today having already won at this distance, and she acts on good ground with a win and a place from six starts. The yard and jockey both have useful records at Downpatrick though this is her first run here. Usually held up, she enters the race with credible placed form.
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8Schiehallion48/100
Schiehallion is a fair performer who has run five times here without winning or placing. He has shown bits of form at this trip but is now on a long losing run and has failed to complete on his last two starts. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Downpatrick. Usually held up, his form of -P5P04 underlines the current lack of confidence.
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9Bayonetta47/100
Bayonetta is a useful performer who has been a regular at this track and usually gives her running. She has been placed on five of her seven visits to Downpatrick and is also proven at today's trip and on good ground, though she has never managed to get her head in front. The yard's modest record here and the jockey's lack of success at the track are both negatives. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently, she could be the one to take the uncontested lead.
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10Technology46/100
Technology is a fair handicapper who has been placed at this trip and on this ground without winning. He ran no better than ninth on his latest three starts and was well held when seventh on his only previous visit to Downpatrick. The yard holds a solid record at the track while the jockey is operating above the course average. Usually held up, his form of -F0209 shows little recent spark.
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11Mini Getaway46/100
Mini Getaway is a fair performer who showed his best form when winning last time out and has placed on both previous starts at this trip. He has already shown he handles Downpatrick by finishing third here on his only visit and acts on good ground with a win and two places from four runs. The trainer remains winless from eight runs at the track while the jockey has a solid 10% strike rate from 78 rides here. Usually held up, his form of 4-3031 includes that latest win.
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12King Gris44/100
King Gris is a useful performer who has been below form on his last three starts and finished no better than fifth in three runs at this track. Gordon Elliott has a solid 18% strike-rate here from a huge sample but Paddy Cleary is still seeking his first winner from 15 rides at Downpatrick. Steps up markedly in trip today on ground he has failed to win on. Usually held up, his form of 15-570 reflects the recent dip.
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13Mastermind41/100
Mastermind is a modest 12-year-old with a solid recent win on his record but has shown little spark since. He has been well beaten both starts at Downpatrick and is 0-4 at this trip. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate here is a negative while the jockey's 19% record offers some encouragement. Usually held up, his form of 3301-6 shows the win but also the subsequent lack of progress.
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14Subset41/100
Subset is a modest performer whose recent form has been poor with two pulled-ups in his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having been placed once at this distance without winning and holds a respectable record on good ground. Trainer has yet to strike at Downpatrick from 15 attempts while the jockey has a solid 11% strike-rate here from 61 rides. Typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Custers Mistake is the KTB Selection. He brings strong course connections having won once from four runs at Downpatrick, and while the step up in trip is a concern given previous attempts at the distance, the uncontested lead should ensure a true test that may play to his strengths if stamina is there. The selection is rated level on KTB Fit with several others, but the course record and overall class edge give him the call. Main dangers are Lecale's Diamond, who won over this trip earlier in the season and has solid course and trainer-jockey form, and Fr Gilligansvoyge, who boasts a win here and consistent placed efforts. Malton Groove and Three By Two cannot be entirely dismissed if the headgear or return to shorter trips sparks improvement.
KTB Selection Custers Mistake
This is the narrative read of the 5:37 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Downpatrick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Downpatrick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Bayonetta is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Why is the step up in trip a concern for the selection?
Custers Mistake showed no joy in two previous tries at this distance and last ran over 2m1f.
Which runners have previous winning form at Downpatrick?
Fr Gilligansvoyge, Custers Mistake and Shantou Show have all won here.
Who are the only two principals without high-confidence held-up run styles?
Fr Gilligansvoyge has medium confidence on held-up while all other principals are high confidence held-up types.
Which horse is making its first appearance at Downpatrick?
Mobile Mamma has no course form on record.
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