5:21 Catterick
This Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Catterick brings together nine modest performers on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched, with Our Absent Friends heading the numbers on 62, followed by I'm Dan Dare on 57, Military Girl on 55 and Hanney Girl on 52. The race features several course winners and horses dropping in class, yet the overall standard remains modest and the outcome may hinge on who handles the expected uncontested lead best.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to Our Absent Friends being allowed an uncontested lead from his front-running style. With the majority of the field, including I'm Dan Dare, Military Girl, Hanney Girl, J Street, Wen Moon, Protest Rally, Keldeo and Valor Spirit, all tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the race is likely to develop into a test of whether any of the closers can bridge the gap in the final furlong. The key question is whether the clear advantage of an uncontested lead on this track will prove decisive against the late runners.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Our Absent Friends KTB Selection62/100
Our Absent Friends is a modest performer with a solid Catterick record of two wins from six starts and a respectable recent sequence that includes three victories in the last six outings. He has won over this trip but his record on good ground is ordinary with just one success from 16 attempts. The 8-year-old tends to make the running or race prominently, which aligns perfectly with the projected lone-leader pace shape that could be difficult for closers to overcome. Trainer Tristan Davidson holds a 15 percent strike rate at Catterick from 73 runs with an A/E of 1.17, while the combination with Jason Hart shows 27 wins from 138 rides at a 20 percent strike rate and A/E 1.11 with positive LSP of +£30.36. The selection has the right blend of course form and run-style to take full advantage of the conditions.
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2I'm Dan Dare57/100
I'm Dan Dare is a modest performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just one run here. His recent form of 251210 shows he can be competitive at this level but is inconsistent. The 3-year-old is dropping in class and will be held up to produce his effort late, which may leave him with plenty to do if the leader is allowed an easy time out front. Trainer Mark Walford has a modest 9 percent strike rate at Catterick from 196 runs with an A/E of 0.67, though the partnership with Jack Garritty records 28 wins from 267 rides at 10 percent with an A/E of 1.03. He has been placed twice from five starts on good ground without winning, and his sole course visit resulted in victory.
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3Military Girl55/100
Military Girl is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of her three starts at Catterick. She has won at this trip and shown enough on good ground to suggest the surface will be fine, with one win and three places from nine attempts, though her recent form of 311250 has been patchy. The 4-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late with high confidence in that run-style, which could prove vulnerable given the projected uncontested lead. Trainer Michael Dods has an 11 percent strike rate at Catterick from 523 runs with an A/E of 0.81, while jockey Connor Beasley has a 15 percent strike rate from 316 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.06. The pair combine for 227 wins from 2129 rides at 11 percent.
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4Hanney Girl52/100
Hanney Girl is a modest performer who has been placed on both starts at Catterick without winning, finishing third on each occasion. She has won at this trip but has failed to place in six runs on good ground, which raises a question mark on the forecast surface. The 3-year-old is dropping in class and will be held up with high confidence in that run-style, again potentially leaving her with ground to make up. Trainer Tim Easterby has a solid 12 percent strike rate at Catterick from 1930 runs with an A/E of 0.9, while David Allan has an 11 percent strike rate from 959 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.77. The yard and jockey combination shows 988 wins from 9057 rides at 11 percent.
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5J Street50/100
J Street is a modest performer who has won once from just one run at Catterick and also has three wins at this trip from 18 attempts. Recent form of 514144 shows he can be competitive at this level but he is 0 from 4 on good ground and the Easterby yard has a modest 5 percent strike rate here from 136 runs with an A/E of 0.44; he will be held up.
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6Wen Moon49/100
Wen Moon is a modest performer who has been placed on both starts at Catterick without winning. He has a win on good ground but his overall record on this surface is ordinary with one win from 14, and the trainer's 4 percent strike rate from 163 runs at the track adds little encouragement; drawn in stall one he has scored three times over the trip from 26 starts and will be held up.
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7Protest Rally48/100
Protest Rally is a modest performer who has shown some spark at Catterick with a second and a fifth from two runs here. He acts on good ground with three wins from 14 attempts and has a solid record at this trip including four wins, though his recent form has been ordinary; the trainer's record at the track is poor at 2 percent from 98 runs with an A/E of 0.25 and he will be held up while dropping in class.
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8Keldeo48/100
Keldeo is a modest performer with a solid record at Catterick, where he has won three of his seven starts. He has been consistent this year with six placed efforts from his last eight runs, though he has not won for some time; dropping back to 5f should suit on his known good-ground form with three wins from 14 attempts, and he will be held up.
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9Valor Spirit46/100
Valor Spirit is a modest performer with a solid recent record of consistency, finishing no worse than sixth in his last five starts. He drops back to 5f today having been placed at the trip without winning, and he has handled good ground well enough to be competitive with two places from seven attempts; the trainer holds a 10 percent strike rate at Catterick from 339 runs and he will be held up while dropping in class.
KTB verdict
Our Absent Friends looks to hold the key in a race where the pace shape strongly favours the front-runner. His proven record at Catterick, recent winning form and the uncontested lead his style should secure give him a clear edge over the predominantly held-up opposition. The main dangers are likely to come from I'm Dan Dare, who has already won over course and distance, and Military Girl, who boasts a strong strike rate at the track, while Hanney Girl and several others cannot be entirely dismissed in a modest event.
KTB Selection Our Absent Friends
This is the narrative read of the 5:21 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Catterick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Our Absent Friends, whose front-running style aligns with the lone-leader pace shape.
How many course wins has Our Absent Friends recorded at Catterick?
Two wins from six starts.
Which principals are dropping in class?
I'm Dan Dare, Hanney Girl and Valor Spirit.
What is the trainer strike rate at Catterick for Tristan Davidson?
15 percent strike rate from 73 runs with an A/E of 1.17.
How many of the field are typically held up?
Eight of the nine runners are held up, with only Our Absent Friends tending to make the running or race prominently.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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