5:45 Kempton (AW)

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1Thespian Queen KTB Selection52/100

   Form 2662 · Eve Johnson Houghton · Charles Bishop

   Family: half-sister to White Crown Star (1 win from 12 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner.

   Thespian Queen brings the strongest recent form having finished second in two of her four starts, most recently over this course and distance. She drops in class here which should suit, though she remains unproven on standard to slow ground. The daughter of a dam who has already produced a winner lines up for Eve Johnson Houghton, whose 9% strike rate at Kempton from 844 runs is modest, while Charles Bishop's 6% from 850 rides at the track is also below average. Usually held up, she produces her effort late and that run-style could be well suited to the anticipated steady gallop. Her placed efforts at Kempton give her valuable course experience in a race where many opponents have none.

2. 2Sayidah Iffraaj51/100

   Form 5 · George Boughey · Jack Callan

   Family: full sister to Shining Al Danah (2 wins from 9 runs). The dam has had 3 other runners, 3 of them winners.

   Sayidah Iffraaj showed fair promise when finishing fifth on debut over 7f and now steps up to a mile for the first time, which poses a fresh question. A full sister to Shining Al Danah who won twice from nine starts, she is out of a dam who has already produced three winning runners. George Boughey's 15% strike rate at Kempton from 317 runs sits in line with his record elsewhere, and Jack Callan rides at a comparable 16% from 49 rides at the track. With limited evidence she is usually held up, producing her effort late, though the confidence in that assessment is low. The combination of pedigree and trainer form keeps her firmly in the picture on just her second start.

3. 3Waiting50/100

   William Knight · Marco Ghiani

   Family: the dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.

   Waiting is a newcomer whose assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background given the low data confidence. The dam has produced one previous runner that failed to win, offering little encouragement from the family side. By Masar, who has an 12% overall win rate from 1245 runners, she lines up for William Knight whose 11% strike rate at Kempton from 723 runs is in line with his record at other tracks. Marco Ghiani takes the ride at a matching 11% from 356 rides here. With no course form and limited information available this remains an incomplete picture, yet the yard's consistent record at the venue means she cannot be entirely dismissed.

4. 4Perfectly Adorable47/100

   Owen Burrows · David Probert

   Perfectly Adorable is another debutant, this time from the Owen Burrows yard which operates at a solid 15% strike rate at Kempton from 144 runs. By Cracksman, who has an 11% overall win rate from 1853 runners, she has no course form on record. David Probert is in the saddle, riding at 11% from 2198 rides at the track. The absence of any racecourse evidence leaves much to the imagination, yet the trainer's healthy record at Kempton suggests she should be monitored closely in the market for any positive signals. Her placement in stall ten may require a patient ride if the race develops as expected.

5. 5Lady Margo45/100

   John & Thady Gosden · Oisin Murphy

   Family: half-sister to Ship Of Dreams, a Listed winner (2 wins from 14 runs). The dam has had 7 other runners, 4 of them winners.

   Lady Margo is a newcomer from the powerful John & Thady Gosden stable, whose 21% strike rate at Kempton from 391 runs stands well above average. She is a half-sister to Listed winner Ship Of Dreams and out of a dam who has produced four winners from seven runners to date. Oisin Murphy rides, operating at an 18% strike rate from 1466 rides at the venue. By Sioux Nation, who has a 13% overall win rate from 3082 runners, she has no course form on record. With low data confidence the picture is incomplete, yet the combination of pedigree, yard strength and jockey booking makes her one of the more interesting debutants in the line-up.

6. 6Sand Dance42/100

   Form 8 · S. P. C. Woods · David Egan

   Sand Dance finished eighth of ten on her sole start over 7f here on this surface. Stepping up to a mile poses a fresh question for a horse whose debut gives very little to go on, though she drops in class. The trainer's 11% strike rate at Kempton matches his record elsewhere and David Egan rides at a comparable 13% from 598 rides at the track.

7. 7Loaded Dice41/100

   Ross Burdon · Josephine Gordon

   Family: full sister to Brownstown (1 win from 8 runs). The dam has had 4 other runners, 1 of them a winner.

   Loaded Dice is a debutant and a full sister to Brownstown who won once from eight starts. The dam has produced one winner from four other runners. By Cracksman, the trainer has a 7% strike rate at Kempton from 27 runs while Josephine Gordon operates at 8% from 519 rides here. No course form on record and low data confidence leave her very much an unknown.

8. 8Fifth Amendment40/100

   Form 6 · Jonathan Portman · Callum Hutchinson

   Family: half-sister to Coltrane, a Group 2 winner (10 wins from 34 runs). The dam has had 7 other runners, 4 of them winners.

   Fifth Amendment showed modest form when finishing sixth over this trip and track on debut. She is a half-sister to Group 2 winner Coltrane and the dam has produced four winners from seven other runners. Dropping in class, both trainer and jockey have modest records here at 6% and 5% respectively. Usually held up with low confidence in that assessment, she steps out again with limited experience.

9. 9Acechaser38/100

   Ross Burdon · Alexandra Egan(5)

   Family: half-sister to Tour To Paris, a Group 2 winner (6 wins from 18 runs). The dam has had 8 other runners, 3 of them winners.

   Acechaser is a debutant and a half-sister to Group 2 winner Tour To Paris, with the dam having produced three winners from eight runners. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Kempton from 27 runs in line with his record elsewhere, while the jockey is still seeking her first win from ten rides at the track. With no racecourse form and low data confidence this is very much an unknown quantity.

10. 10Howluckyweare36/100

    Form 5 · William Haggas · Darragh Keenan

    Family: half-sister to Hamish, a Group 3 winner (15 wins from 29 runs). The dam has had 4 other runners, 2 of them winners.

    Howluckyweare showed fair form when fifth on debut over 1m1f and now drops back in trip. A half-sister to high-class performer Hamish, she is out of a dam who has produced two winners from four runners. William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at Kempton from 774 runs while Darragh Keenan operates at 4% from 354 rides here. Usually held up with low confidence in that read, she remains unproven on the surface.