Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.12).
Deterministic profile computed from 163 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 29 Oct 2026
The read
The rider also reads well off a 8-14-day break (20.6%, n=34) and in Class 5 (16.2%, n=37). The market has also underrated the rider in Class 6: Fair A/E 1.21 across 57 rides (15.8% strike, +5.30 to a £1 stake).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
11.6%−1.3
n=112 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −8.53
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
31.6%+18.7
n=19 · A/E 1.52 · £1 +8.70
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
16.7%+3.8
n=24 · A/E 1.88 · £1 +20.50
When favourite
29.4%
n=17 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −4.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
11.8%−1.1
n=152 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −21.51
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−12.9
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 8-14-day break20.6% vs 12.9% · n=34
In Class 516.2% vs 12.9% · n=37
In Class 615.8% vs 12.9% · n=57
Off a 15-30-day break10.2% vs 12.9% · n=59
Over 1m – 1m1f10.4% vs 12.9% · n=48
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat1622113%−21.04
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)75912%−4.83
Good35514.3%+3.88
Good to Firm29413.8%−8.00
Soft1317.7%−11.09
Good to Soft9222.2%+0.00
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW)20210%−0.20
Southwell (AW)1417.1%+3.00
Kempton (AW)1200%−12.00
Newmarket11218.2%−2.25
Newcastle (AW)10220%+0.50
Chelmsford City (AW)10220%+1.75
Yarmouth7114.3%+4.00
Lingfield (AW)6233.3%+5.12
Chepstow5120%−2.12
Navan400%−4.00
Curragh400%−4.00
Windsor400%−4.00
Ffos Las4125%+9.00
Naas300%−3.00
Haydock300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 657915.8%+5.30
Class 537616.2%+1.75
Class 435411.4%−16.09
Class 36116.7%−2.00
Class 2300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite19631.6%1.05−3.12
2nd–3rd fav39820.5%1.10−5.42
4th–6th fav4548.9%1.05−4.50
7th+ in betting6035%1.54−9.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f65913.8%+12.41
1m – 1m1f48510.4%−29.28
1m2f – 1m4f27311.1%−12.50
Under 6f1417.1%−9.00
1m5f – 2m9333.3%+16.33
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20241119.1%+6.00
202568913.2%−12.08
2026841113.1%−15.96
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1392014.4%−1.79
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners571119.3%+13.92
11-13 runners4724.3%−13.00
5-7 runners30516.7%−3.96
14-16 runners1500%−15.00
17+ runners800%−8.00
2-4 runners6350%+4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 112 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 7
Only 7 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00011021251616800
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,566 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
Galileo (IRE)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,195 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 889.
Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,058 runs since 2008 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.3% from 117. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 163 · newest first
The latest 50 of 163 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 10 March 2024 to 28 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Alexandra Egan's strike rate?
Alexandra Egan has won 21 of 163 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.9% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Alexandra Egan in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 7 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Alexandra Egan's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 162 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Alexandra Egan·SR 12.9%·A/E 1.12
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