1:21 Gowran Park
This 2m80y Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle at Gowran Park on yielding to soft ground brings together a field of 13, most of them lightly raced or unproven at the trip and on the surface. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by the selection on 55, with the next four principals all within a narrow six-point band. With no obvious leader in a race that lacks pace, the shape is expected to be tactical and steadily run, placing a premium on being handy and timing a late effort.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates no one obviously wants the lead, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy should pay. Most of the principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to develop into a test of positioning and timing from off the pace. The key question will be whether any horse can quicken effectively off a steady gallop on this yielding to soft ground, or whether one of the more prominent runners can steal an advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Michonne KTB Selection55/100
Michonne is a high-class performer who arrives off the back of two placed efforts and drops back in trip to a distance at which she has already won once from three starts. Her official rating of 123 sets a clear standard. She has only run once on yielding to soft ground so far without placing, while this is her first visit to Gowran Park. Trainer Mrs J. Harrington has an 11% strike rate here from over a thousand runs and jockey Donagh Meyler is operating at 4% from 137 rides, with the pair combining at 8/44 with an A/E of 1.26. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited to the steadily-run nature of the race.
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2Quarry Road54/100
Quarry Road is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The trainer Moses McCabe has a solid 9% strike rate from 46 runs at Gowran Park. With low data confidence the pedigree and sales background will decide how much interest there is. By Valirann, who has a 10% overall win rate, he lines up in a steadily-run race where being handy could pay, though as a newcomer his run-style is not yet established. The jockey Miss Ella Herbison rides with a 7lb claim and has no record at Gowran Park.
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3Miners Cabin52/100
Miners Cabin has shown very little in ten runs to date and was well beaten on both starts last season. He steps up markedly in trip today having achieved nothing at shorter distances and remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer Kevin Thomas Coleman holds a solid 10% strike rate at Gowran from 60 runs while the jockey Phillip Enright's 6% from 332 rides is more modest; together they are 0/9. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will need the steadily-run pace to play into his hands.
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4Charles Kickham51/100
Charles Kickham has shown only modest form in four starts so far with a best effort of fourth on his penultimate run. The yard of Kieran Purcell holds a solid 9% strike rate at Gowran Park from 120 runs while the 7lb claimer Paddy Cody is still seeking his first winner from seven rides here; they combine at 2/33 with an A/E of 1.65. He is trying the trip again after one previous failure and the small sample makes going suitability impossible to gauge with confidence. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be involved in a tactical race that lacks an obvious leader.
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5Magna Gee Gee49/100
Magna Gee Gee has shown little at this track in two runs and remains winless in 24 starts overall. The yard's modest 7% strike rate here from a huge sample is another negative while the horse is unproven on yielding to soft ground. Jockey Aidan Kelly's 11% record from 19 rides at Gowran offers the one small positive, though the trainer and jockey are 0/12 together. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he has course form of 13th and 7th but will need the steadily-run pace to suit in this tactical affair.
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6Plus Or Minus48/100
Plus Or Minus has shown little since two modest efforts early in the campaign and finished eighth of nine on his only visit to Gowran. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate here from a big sample is another negative while the 5lb claimer has a solid recent record at the track. Unproven on yielding to soft ground adds further uncertainty.
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7Liath Mor45/100
Liath Mor is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a solid 9% strike-rate at Gowran from a big sample while the jockey is operating at a modest 3% here from limited rides. Pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment today.
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8Ivatt45/100
Ivatt has shown some ability on his two most recent starts with a placed effort at today's trip but remains a maiden after ten runs and now tries first-time headgear. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground and makes his debut at Gowran Park. Gordon Elliott has an 11% strike rate here from 621 runs while Jack Kennedy is operating at 14% from 137 rides.
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9Feel Like Ash45/100
Feel Like Ash is a lightly raced 4-year-old with just one run so far and that produced a third placing. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Gowran from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 6% here. Dropping back in trip today asks a fresh question of him on ground that remains unknown.
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10Bunker Buster43/100
Bunker Buster has shown fair form in two starts, finishing second and third at this trip. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate at Gowran Park from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 4% from 24 rides here. First-time headgear is now applied to a lightly-raced 4-year-old whose going preference remains unknown from such a small sample.
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11Spirit Of Stars41/100
Spirit Of Stars is a debutant with very little to go on beyond pedigree and sales background. The yard has a poor record at Gowran and this looks a stiff enough first task on yielding to soft ground. Jockey Danny Gilligan has a modest 9% strike rate here from 43 rides.
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12Robbie Diamonds41/100
Robbie Diamonds is lightly raced and with just two runs this year, so any assessment has to be cautious. Drops back in trip to 2m today having been well beaten over 2m1f last time, with no standout positives in a small sample. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Gowran from a big sample while the jockey is similarly modest at 7%.
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13Sapphire Jewel40/100
Sapphire Jewel has shown mixed form in two starts, finishing third on debut before a lesser effort last time. The yard has yet to strike at Gowran from seven runners while the jockey operates at a 7% strike rate here from 126 rides. With only two career runs and a small sample at this trip the filly remains hard to assess with any confidence.
KTB verdict
Michonne stands out as the selection. A high-class performer who arrives off the back of two placed efforts and drops back in trip to a distance at which she has already won once from three starts, she sets a clear standard with her official rating of 123. The steadily-run, tactical nature of the race should suit her held-up style. Main dangers are likely to come from the debutant Quarry Road, whose trainer has a solid record here, and from Bunker Buster who has shown fair form in two starts at this trip, though first-time headgear and unknown going add unknowns.
KTB Selection Michonne
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Michonne | 2/1 | Bet365 |
| Quarry Road | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Miners Cabin | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Charles Kickham | 33/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Magna Gee Gee | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Plus Or Minus | 125/1 | Bet365 |
| Liath Mor | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Ivatt | 2/1 | Bet365 |
| Feel Like Ash | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Bunker Buster | 15/8 | BetTom |
| Spirit Of Stars | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Robbie Diamonds | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Sapphire Jewel | 33/1 | Dragon Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 1:21 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the lack of an obvious leader affect the race?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, making it likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
What is Michonne's official rating and how does it compare?
Michonne has an official rating of 123, which sets a clear standard in the field.
Which horses are trying first-time headgear?
Ivatt and Bunker Buster are both fitted with first-time headgear.
How many runners are unproven on yielding to soft ground?
Miners Cabin, Magna Gee Gee, Plus Or Minus, Ivatt, Feel Like Ash, Bunker Buster, Robbie Diamonds and Sapphire Jewel are all unproven on yielding to soft ground.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Gowran Park among those represented?
Mrs J. Harrington has an 11% strike rate at Gowran Park from over a thousand runs, matching Gordon Elliott's 11% from 621 runs.
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