6:45 Wolverhampton (AW)
A Class 6 handicap over 1m4f51y on the standard surface at Wolverhampton features a field of seven modest performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Tenadaay on 61, with Belle Amie close behind on 59, while the remainder sit between 52 and 35. Recent form is mixed across the runners, many with course experience here, and the race looks set to hinge on how the uncontested lead is utilised given the lone-leader pace shape.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome late on. Belle Amie is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race prominently, so she is set to dictate matters from the front. The other six runners are all held-up types who produce their effort late, meaning they will be looking to come from off the pace. The key question is whether any of the closers can bridge the gap to the uncontested leader in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tenadaay KTB Selection61/100
Tenadaay is a limited performer who has already shown enough at Wolverhampton to win from just two starts at the track. He drops back in trip from his most recent run over further but is proven at today's distance and handles the standard surface. The 4-year-old is held up in his races and usually produces his effort late. Fergal O'Brien has an 11% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 53 runs with a solid A/E of 0.97, while Gina Mangan teams up with a 10/33 record between them carrying an A/E of 1.60 and +£26.98 LSP. The horse has 1 win from 4 on standard going with 2 placings and has won here from 2 runs.
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2Belle Amie59/100
Belle Amie is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at Wolverhampton and holds a solid record of 1 win from 6 on standard ground with 5 placings. She steps up in trip today having already won over this distance, though her recent form has been a bit up and down. The filly tends to make the running or race on the pace and looks set to take the uncontested lead in this race. David Simcock has a 14% strike rate at the track from a large sample of 937 runs with an A/E of 0.85, and Callum Shepherd is aboard with a 12% strike rate from 809 rides here and an A/E of 0.92. She has won here from 2 starts.
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3Luan52/100
Luan is a modest performer who has won twice this year and showed useful placed form when second here last time out. Stall one should help him get a good position early despite usually being held up and producing his effort late. The 4-year-old has already won over this trip as well as on standard ground. Nick Scholfield has a 0% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a tiny sample of just 1 run, so that element remains unknown, though Billy Loughnane has a 19% strike rate at the track from 795 rides with an A/E of 0.95. Luan has won here from 3 starts and holds a record of 1 win from 7 on standard with 2 placings.
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4Trojan Truth50/100
Trojan Truth is a limited performer who has been consistent in recent months without winning, as reflected in his string of placed efforts. He has a solid record at this track and trip, including a win over today's distance, and acts well on standard going with 1 win from 9 and 5 placings. The 7-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Ed de Giles posts a modest 10% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 267 runs with an A/E of 0.89, while Luke Morris is a reliable booking boasting a 12% strike rate from an enormous 4583 rides here with an A/E of 0.86. He has won here from 9 starts.
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5Six Blue45/100
Six Blue is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and finished no better than fifth in both runs here. He steps up in trip for the first time in a while with no win or place from three runs on standard going, and the yard's modest 6% strike rate at Wolverhampton adds little confidence.
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6Wonderful Wendy42/100
Wonderful Wendy is a limited performer who has shown just modest form in five starts. She has one placing over today's trip but was only sixth on her sole visit to Wolverhampton, and the trainer's modest 9% strike rate at the track adds little confidence.
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7Nora Barnacle35/100
Nora Barnacle is a limited performer who has shown little in ten runs and finished no better than sixth on her latest three starts. She has been tried on this track and on standard ground without success, while the drop back from 1m6f to today's trip poses a fresh question, and the trainer's modest 9% strike rate at Wolverhampton comes from a big sample.
KTB verdict
Tenadaay is the KTB Selection. He is a limited horse who has already shown enough at this track to win here from just two runs, drops back to a trip at which he is proven, and handles the standard surface. His trainer's modest 11% strike rate at Wolverhampton is backed by a solid A/E of 0.97, and the combination with Gina Mangan has been profitable. Main dangers are Belle Amie, who is likely to secure the uncontested lead and has a good record here and on the surface, and Luan, who showed useful form when second here last time from stall one.
KTB Selection Tenadaay
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Tenadaay | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Belle Amie | 6/4 | 7Bet |
| Luan | 10/3 | Bet365 |
| Trojan Truth | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Six Blue | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Wonderful Wendy | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| Nora Barnacle | 40/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 6:45 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Belle Amie, as the only front-runner in the field who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Tenadaay recorded at Wolverhampton?
One win from two starts at the track.
What is Luan's record on standard going?
1 win from 7 runs with 2 placings.
Which horse has the strongest trainer-jockey combination record at the track?
Tenadaay, with the trainer and jockey recording 10/33 (30%) with an A/E of 1.60 and +£26.98 LSP.
Has any horse in the field won over the exact distance of today's race?
Yes, both Tenadaay and Trojan Truth have a win over today's distance, and Belle Amie has also won over this trip.
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