6:15 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 5 handicap over 7f at Wolverhampton on standard ground brings together a dozen modest performers, several of whom have previous experience at the track. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Powder Monkey heading the list on 63, followed closely by Captain Parma on 61 and Ash Wednesday on 60. Several runners are dropping in class while others arrive in reasonable recent form, and the strong pace anticipated should create opportunities for those able to come from off it.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace is expected to be strong, and there is a high degree of confidence that it could collapse late in the race. Velvet Rhythm and Havanagreattime are likely to set or contest the early fractions, while Kit Gabriel could also be forward from stall 11. This shape poses the key question of which hold-up performers can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire in the straight, with prominent and held-up runners both needing to time their efforts carefully.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Powder Monkey KTB Selection63/100
Powder Monkey is a modest performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing second over this course and distance on his only visit to Wolverhampton. He has won on the AW and at today's trip, with the yard holding a solid 17% strike rate here from a large sample. Billy Loughnane takes the ride and the combination of trainer and jockey statistics at the track is respectable. The horse usually races handily, though the evidence for his run-style is limited. Stall 12 is a clear negative on a track where the draw often matters, yet he remains the KTB Selection.
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2Captain Parma61/100
Captain Parma is a fair performer who has run well in defeat twice over this course and trip, finishing second on both visits to Wolverhampton. He has shown solid placed form on standard ground and has already won at this distance. The yard's healthy 20% strike rate here adds some encouragement, while Luke Morris is in the saddle. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the anticipated strong pace that could collapse. Dropping in class from a good draw in stall 3, he is one of the main dangers.
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3Ash Wednesday60/100
Ash Wednesday is a modest performer who has won four times from six runs at this track and handles the standard surface well with six wins from 13 attempts. He has scored at this trip and arrives in reasonable form having placed twice in recent starts. Trainer Heather Main maintains a solid 15% strike rate here from a large sample while Jack Mitchell rides. Usually held up, he should be suited by the race unfolding at a strong gallop. Dropping in class from stall 2, his course record makes him a significant player.
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4Velvet Rhythm56/100
Velvet Rhythm is a fair performer who has won four times including at this trip. He has been in and out of form this year and looks held by the best of these on recent efforts. Trainer Charlie Johnston has a solid 13% strike-rate at the track while Callum Shepherd is aboard, though the jockey is 0-6 here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be prominent early in what is expected to be a strong gallop. Dropping in class from stall 5, he has no course form on record and his two runs on standard ground have produced no win or place.
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5King of Ithaca55/100
King of Ithaca is a modest performer who has dropped to a winnable mark but has failed to capitalise on it lately, finishing no better than fifth in four of his last five starts. He has shown he can handle this trip with six wins from 28 attempts and has a solid record on standard going with five wins and eight places from 19 runs. The yard posts a 19% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a big sample while the horse himself is only 0-1 at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should relish the strong pace. Dropping in class from stall 6, he remains vulnerable on current form.
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6Lerwick54/100
Lerwick is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off the back of a 7f win at Kempton. He has placed three times from eight starts on standard ground so the surface is no problem, while he has also won at this trip. Trainer Mark Loughnane has a 10% strike rate from 1883 runs at Wolverhampton and Paddy Bradley is in the saddle for the first time here. Usually held up, he should be suited by the strong pace.
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7Havanagreattime51/100
Havanagreattime is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with three poor efforts this year. He has a win and two places from seven runs on standard ground and is 2-9 at this trip but his record at Wolverhampton reads 0-3 with no placed efforts. Trainer Ruth Carr has a 10% strike-rate here from a large sample while jockey William Pyle is unproven at the track. Tending to make the running, he could be prominent in a race with a strong pace.
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8North View49/100
North View is a modest performer who has been running to form without winning lately. He has a win at this trip on his record and has handled standard going, though his sole course run produced only a modest fourth. Trainer's modest strike-rate here from a huge volume of runners adds little encouragement. Usually held up, he should appreciate the strong pace.
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9Ziggy's Condor48/100
Ziggy's Condor is a modest performer with a solid record around here, finishing placed on two of three visits to Wolverhampton without winning. He steps up from 6f to 7f today, a trip he has managed to place at before though without scoring. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 21 runs at the track is a negative. Usually held up, he should be suited by the strong pace.
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10Yaajooz46/100
Yaajooz is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year but showed a bit more when third at this track last time. Placed three times from seven runs on standard going and has three placed efforts at this trip from 12 attempts, though he is still a maiden after 21 starts. Trainer's modest 6% strike-rate here from a big sample is a negative. Usually held up, he should be helped by the strong pace.
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11Kit Gabriel45/100
Kit Gabriel is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from 11 runs and has placed on standard ground seven times from 22 starts. Recent form of 332060 shows consistency without much spark, while the draw in stall 11 is no help over this trip where he has only one win from 20 attempts. Trainer Simon Pearce has a 12% strike rate here from 65 runs. Tending to make the running, he could be forward early.
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12G'Emmethegreenlite39/100
G'Emmethegreenlite is a modest performer who has struggled since his two placed efforts on debut. He drops back from 1m to 7f today having failed to make the frame in three runs since, though the shorter trip poses a fresh question. Trainer records a solid 12% strike rate here from 75 runs. Usually held up, he is unproven on standard ground.
KTB verdict
Powder Monkey is the KTB Selection. He has shown consistent form this year, is proven at the trip and on AW surfaces, and the yard's record at Wolverhampton adds confidence despite the negative draw in stall 12. The strong pace should ensure the race sets up for prominent and hold-up types alike. Captain Parma and Ash Wednesday head the list of dangers, with the former's course-and-distance placed form and the latter's excellent track record both carrying plenty of weight.
KTB Selection Powder Monkey
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Powder Monkey | 9/4 | Bet365 |
| Captain Parma | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Ash Wednesday | 8/1 | William Hill |
| Velvet Rhythm | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| King of Ithaca | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Lerwick | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Havanagreattime | 50/1 | 7Bet |
| North View | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Ziggy's Condor | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Yaajooz | 11/2 | William Hill |
| Kit Gabriel | 20/1 | William Hill |
| G'Emmethegreenlite | 50/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 6:15 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Captain Parma, Ash Wednesday, King of Ithaca, Lerwick, North View, Ziggy's Condor and Yaajooz are all usually held up and should be suited by the strong pace that could collapse late.
How many times has Ash Wednesday won at Wolverhampton?
Ash Wednesday has won four times from six runs at this track.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Wolverhampton for Powder Monkey's yard?
The yard has a 17% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 501 runs.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Captain Parma, Ash Wednesday, Velvet Rhythm, King of Ithaca and North View are all dropping in class.
Which horses have course-and-distance form at Wolverhampton?
Powder Monkey has finished second over this course and distance, while Captain Parma has finished second twice over this course and trip.
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