What is Gavin Hernon's strike rate?

Gavin Hernon has won 48 of 586 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Gavin Hernon do best at?

Chantilly by strike rate: 18 wins from 185 runners (9.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Gavin Hernon?

Tony Piccone, with 115 runners since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (8.7%).

Is Gavin Hernon in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Gavin Hernon's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 584 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Gavin Hernon

586 runners in the last 5 seasons · 122 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 4 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)

from 1 Jan 2022

48–586

Wins / Runs

8.2%

Strike rate

n=586

154 (26%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=584 · 0.86 incl. margin

−124.70

£1 level stake

n=586 at SP · −21.3%

£1.41m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 120 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). New recruits from other yards win at 16% first time out (31 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 586 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 9.5% 25.7% when favourite Tony Piccone: 8.7% from 115 New recruits: 16.1% Claiming riders: 8.3% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 16.1% (n=31, Fair A/E 2.39), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 3.3% (n=61, Fair A/E 0.77). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 9.5% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.38 and +9.45 to a £1 stake over 179 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Tony Piccone rides 20% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.7%, A/E 1.17) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good going (14.6%, n=41). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 3.2% over 63 runners, 5pts below the baseline. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Stakes at Curragh (Sep 2024, £135,500).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.5%+1.3

n=179 · A/E 1.38 · £1 +9.45

New recruits · first run for the yard

16.1%+7.9

n=31 · A/E 2.39 · £1 +38.53

Debutants · first career start

3.7%−4.5

n=81 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −36.40

First-time headgear · true-first definition

3.4%−4.8

n=59 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −14.30

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−8.2

n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00

When favourite

25.7%

n=35 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −6.43

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.3%+0.1

n=60 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −32.35

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

3.3%−4.9

n=61 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −45.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Cristian Demuro 15.8% vs 8.2% · n=38

With new recruits 16.1% vs 8.2% · n=31

On Good going 14.6% vs 8.2% · n=41

In Class 1 3.2% vs 8.2% · n=63

In Group / Graded races 3.3% vs 8.2% · n=61

With debutants 3.7% vs 8.2% · n=81

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 223 19 8.5% +36.52

Good to Soft 137 8 5.8% −91.00

Soft 133 9 6.8% −70.57

Heavy 45 5 11.1% +1.80

Good 41 6 14.6% −3.45

Good to Firm 7 1 14.3% +2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chantilly 185 18 9.7% +56.97

Deauville (AW) 146 10 6.8% −58.17

Saint-Cloud 99 9 9.1% −41.40

Longchamp (FR) 98 8 8.2% −45.00

Compiegne (FR) 11 0 0% −11.00

Lyon Parilly (FR) 7 0 0% −7.00

Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) 5 0 0% −5.00

Clairefontaine (FR) 4 0 0% −4.00

Strasbourg (FR) 4 0 0% −4.00

Fontainebleau (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00

La Teste De Buch (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00

Curragh 3 1 33.3% +4.50

Marseille Borely (FR) 3 1 33.3% +2.30

Dieppe (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00

Lingfield (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 63 2 3.2% −47.50

Class 3 13 1 7.7% −8.67

Class 2 11 0 0% −11.00

Class 4 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 37 9 24.3% 0.98 −8.43

2nd–3rd fav 97 17 17.5% 1.26 −0.07

4th–6th fav 184 13 7.1% 0.83 −51.20

7th+ in betting 268 9 3.4% 1.03 −65.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Sky Power (FR)from Gael Barbedette 25 3 3 27 Mar 25

Sous La Neige (FR)from A Fabre 22 0 6 3 Oct 26

Windburn (FR) 19 3 7 16 Oct 26

Marharry (FR) 16 1 7 6 Oct 26

Placeholder (IRE)from George Boughey 16 3 3 4 Oct 26

Zawan (FR) 15 2 4 10 Sep 26

Baileys Illusion (FR)then Jan Keppens 15 0 5 28 Oct 25

Lakota Beau (FR) 13 0 3 4 Oct 26

Brio (FR)then Amy Murphy 13 1 5 27 Feb 25

Dare To Dream (FR) 12 2 3 26 Oct 25

Memory Dream (FR)from Ivan Furtado 12 1 3 3 Feb 24

Happy Saxon (FR)from M Delzangles 11 0 0 23 Aug 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 122 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A Fabre (2) and F-H Graffard (2); 43 had their first archived run for this yard.

14 have since run for another yard; 46 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

2 from 6

Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

711986155139486

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTony Piccone

20% of all rides
8.7% SR · A/E 1.17

RiderRWSR£1

Tony Piccone 115 10 8.7% +17.20

A Madamet 70 7 10% +29.90

Alexis Pouchin 45 4 8.9% −9.20

Cristian Demuro 38 6 15.8% +11.70

Benjamin Marie 34 1 2.9% −27.80

Corentin Berge 34 1 2.9% −31.30

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.97m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 16 wins

Spirit D'or (IRE) — Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Stakes Curragh · Sep 2024

£135,500

Dare To Dream (FR) — Al Shira'aa Racing Prix Vanteaux (3yo Fillies) (Moyenne Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Apr 2024 · Group 3

£34,783

National Service (FR) — Prix Paul de Moussac Longines (3yo) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Jun 2020 · Group 3

£26,695

Notable horses

Sky Power (FR) Stormbringer (GB) Windburn (FR) Placeholder (IRE) Goldino Bello (FR) Zawan (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Shalaa (IRE) 5.4% · 2–37

Progeny have won 9.4% of 2,429 runs since 2008 (279 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.6% from 140.

Toronado (IRE) 17.6% · 6–34

Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,848 runs since 2008 (416 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 189. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.5% from 142.

Stormy River (FR) 12% · 3–25

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,223 runs since 2008 (253 horses).

Dream Ahead (USA) 4.2% · 1–24

Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,678 runs since 2008 (528 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.

Recoletos (FR) 15% · 3–20

Progeny have won 8.9% of 786 runs since 2008 (110 horses).

Territories (IRE) 10.5% · 2–19

Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,601 runs since 2008 (348 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 13.3% from 533.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 832 · newest first

The latest 50 of 832 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 August 2018 to 16 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

16 Oct 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Windburn (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Des MyosotisClass 4 · 8f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 6/4F

15 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Tocoa (FR)J: Pierre-Charles Boudot Prix Du Chene De La Basse Pommeraie9f · Standard · 16 ran 1st 13/8F

15 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Rafler La Mise (FR)J: Marvin Grandin Prix D'hotot-en-auge8f · Good · 8 ran 6th 25/1

14 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Tuesday's Gone (IRE)J: Pierre-Charles Boudot Prix Tanerko6f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 4/5F

14 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Londonpolo (FR)J: C. Soumillon Prix Des Boucles De La Seine10f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 11th 9/1

07 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Navacerrada (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Prix De L'hotel De Vermandois6f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 11/4F

06 Oct 26 Lyon Parilly (FR) Marharry (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Prix Du Parc Borely8f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 7/2

06 Oct 26 Lyon Parilly (FR) Magnus (IRE)J: Cristian Demuro Prix De L'essor10f · Soft · 6 ran 3rd 5/1

06 Oct 26 Lyon Parilly (FR) Tokyo Dreams (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Prix Du Haras Du Ma8f · Soft · 11 ran 2nd 3/1

04 Oct 26 Strasbourg (FR) Carla Velosso (FR)J: Jerome Moutard Prix Du Canal De La Marne Au Rhin7.5f · Heavy · 9 ran 2nd 9/4

04 Oct 26 Longchamp (FR) Lakota Beau (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Qatar Prix de la Place de l'EtoileClass 1 · 10f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 17th 66/1

04 Oct 26 Strasbourg (FR) Placeholder (IRE)J: Jerome Moutard Prix Les Entrepreneurs - Cpme Du Bas-rhin (Prix De La Moder)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 11 ran 8th 10/1

03 Oct 26 Longchamp (FR) Sous La Neige (FR)J: Anthony Crastus Qatar Prix de la Place de la ConcordeClass 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 13th 40/1

03 Oct 26 Longchamp (FR) Hello Major Tom (IRE)J: Maxime Guyon Arqana Series - Haras de Bouquetot Criterium d'AutomneClass 2 · 8f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 14th 66/1

03 Oct 26 Longchamp (FR) Light Of Thunder (FR)J: Tony Piccone Qatar Prix ChaudenayClass 1 · 15f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 8th 100/1

29 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Seven Blues (FR)J: Marvin Grandin Prix De La Troublerie9f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 11/2

29 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Emilie Romagne (IRE)J: Alexis Pouchin Prix De Toutevoie8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 13th 14/1

23 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Windburn (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix De Noisy-sur-oise8f · Good · 15 ran 4th 2/1F

21 Sep 26 Angers (FR) Dennis The Menace (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Prix Claude Rouget8f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 8/11F

20 Sep 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Queen Nzinga (GB)J: Jack Cleary Prix Des Animations Pmu (Prix Label Equures)6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Gavin Hernon's strike rate?: Gavin Hernon has won 48 of 586 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Gavin Hernon do best at?: Chantilly by strike rate: 18 wins from 185 runners (9.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Gavin Hernon?: Tony Piccone, with 115 runners since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (8.7%).
Is Gavin Hernon in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Gavin Hernon's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 584 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.