Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 15.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.3%−5.5
n=29 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −11.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
20%+4.2
n=5 · A/E 1.91 · £1 −0.67
Debutants · first career start
0%−15.8
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−15.8
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−15.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
60%
n=10 · A/E 1.63 · £1 +6.96
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12.5%−3.3
n=8 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −5.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−15.8
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 6f – 7f6.5% vs 15.8% · n=31
On Good going8.1% vs 15.8% · n=37
Over 1m – 1m1f22.9% vs 15.8% · n=35
In Class 418.2% vs 15.8% · n=33
With a new jockey booking17.2% vs 15.8% · n=64 · A/E 1.34
In Flat races15.8% vs 15.8% · n=95 · A/E 1.23
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good3738.1%−17.17
Good to Firm22522.7%−6.54
Standard (AW)21523.8%+6.50
Good to Soft9222.2%−2.50
Heavy300%−3.00
Soft300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newbury1100%−11.00
Salisbury11218.2%−5.37
Wolverhampton (AW)8112.5%−3.50
Southwell (AW)6233.3%+1.50
Nottingham6116.7%−2.00
Leicester600%−6.00
Newmarket500%−5.00
Kempton (AW)5120%+1.50
Sandown500%−5.00
Windsor400%−4.00
Goodwood4125%−1.00
Haydock4250%+10.33
Chester300%−3.00
Doncaster3266.7%+5.00
Yarmouth200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 433618.2%−3.09
Class 526623.1%+3.88
Class 320315%−10.50
Class 2900%−9.00
Class 1700%−7.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite12650%1.40+4.96
2nd–3rd fav29724.1%1.43+4.33
4th–6th fav3126.5%0.88−12.00
7th+ in betting2300%0.00−23.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f35822.9%+2.88
6f – 7f3126.5%−20.17
1m2f – 1m4f25416%−9.92
1m5f – 2m2150%+3.50
Under 6f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202241717.1%−15.25
202418211.1%−8.17
202524416.7%−3.79
202612216.7%+1.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps511019.6%−5.96
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners41717.1%+1.50
11-13 runners2214.5%−17.67
5-7 runners22627.3%−2.29
14-16 runners700%−7.00
2-4 runners3133.3%−0.25
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 32 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 32 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Hannon (3); 27 had their first archived run for this yard.
23 have since run for another yard, most often for Freddie & Martyn Meade (15) and Grant Tuer (2); 9 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
·0381517232000130·
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Advertise (GB) — Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) Ascot · Jun 2019 · Group 1
£283,550
Advertise (GB) — Larc Prix Maurice de Gheest (3yo+) (Straight Course) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2019 · Group 1
£195,614
Eminent (IRE) — Prix Guillaume d'Ornano Haras du Logis Saint-Germain (3yo) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2017 · Group 2
Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,307 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9% from 612. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.6% from 185.
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,089 runs since 2008 (282 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.2% from 154. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.8% from 145. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 13% from 300.
Progeny have won 9.8% of 317 runs since 2008 (40 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,093 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,093 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 February 2005 to 30 June 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Martyn Meade's strike rate?
Martyn Meade has won 15 of 95 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 15.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Martyn Meade's Fair A/E?
1.23, from 95 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Martyn Meade·SR 15.8%·A/E 1.23
KTB
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