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Trainer profile

Francis Casey

271 runners in the lifetime window · 21 individual horses
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 15 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
18–271
Wins / Runs
6.6%
Strike rate
n=271
60 (22%)
Placed
0.94
Fair A/E
n=271 · 0.75 incl. margin
−142.43
£1 level stake
n=271 at SP · −52.6%
£267k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94).

Deterministic profile computed from 271 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 6.8%
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.72 and −100.75 to a £1 stake over 168 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (13.5%, n=74) and off a 8-14-day break (11.6%, n=43). The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 2.1% over 47 runners, 4.5pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.8%+0.2
n=44 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −10.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.6
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.6
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.6
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.6
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
When favourite
18.8%
n=16 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −9.68
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.8%−1.8
n=168 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −100.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.6
n=24 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −24.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m 13.5% vs 6.6% · n=74
Off a 8-14-day break 11.6% vs 6.6% · n=43
Off a 31-60-day break 2.1% vs 6.6% · n=47
On Soft going 10% vs 6.6% · n=90
With horses switching code 3% vs 6.6% · n=66
In Hurdle races 9.8% vs 6.6% · n=92
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 132 5 3.8% −82.00
Hurdle 92 9 9.8% −31.00
Chase 40 4 10% −22.43
NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 90 9 10% −31.50
Good 71 5 7% −41.93
Standard (AW) 44 2 4.5% −25.00
Good to Soft 37 1 2.7% −22.00
Heavy 17 0 0% −17.00
Good to Firm 12 1 8.3% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 44 2 4.5% −25.00
Navan 26 2 7.7% −13.25
Leopardstown 22 3 13.6% +6.50
Naas 18 1 5.6% −13.50
Down Royal 15 2 13.3% −1.00
Gowran Park 14 1 7.1% −2.00
Downpatrick 13 0 0% −13.00
Fairyhouse 13 1 7.7% −8.00
Thurles 12 1 8.3% −10.43
Sligo 12 0 0% −12.00
Punchestown 11 1 9.1% −6.50
Killarney 10 2 20% +7.00
Limerick 7 0 0% −7.00
Kilbeggan 7 0 0% −7.00
Curragh 7 0 0% −7.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 25 0 0% −25.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 24 5 20.8% 0.92 −7.68
2nd–3rd fav 40 5 12.5% 0.91 −13.75
4th–6th fav 66 5 7.6% 1.04 −22.00
7th+ in betting 141 3 2.1% 0.90 −99.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Palace Rock (IRE) 31 3 13 19 Oct 26
Rock Ya Boy Ya (IRE) 31 3 8 27 Oct 25
Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB)from Peter Casey 31 3 10 29 Nov 20
Max Flamingo (IRE) 28 4 9 26 Apr 24
Eight Till Late (IRE)from Peter Casey 20 3 8 22 Dec 18
Adam's Angel (IRE) 18 0 1 13 May 23
Jazzy Rock (IRE) 17 0 3 21 Oct 26
Straffan (IRE)from David O'Meara · then Thomas Coyle 16 0 2 22 Nov 19
Baile An Roba (IRE)from Mrs Prunella Dobbs · then Kieran P Cotter 12 0 1 1 Jun 19
Go Avel (IRE) 11 0 0 10 Jul 26
Giorni Felice (IRE)from Edward Lynam 11 1 4 9 Nov 20
What's Lariat Now (IRE) 9 0 0 20 Sep 24
All 21 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 21 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Peter Casey (3); 14 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0221578611008110
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Denis O'Regan 21 5 23.8% +0.32
Conor Maxwell 19 0 0% −19.00
P J O'Hanlon 17 0 0% −17.00
Karen Kenny 16 0 0% −16.00
Alix Balfe 15 3 20% +9.75
Oisin Orr 15 2 13.3% −1.00
Thomas Reilly 14 0 0% −14.00
James Ryan 13 0 0% −13.00
Conor Orr 10 2 20% +3.50
Nathan Crosse 9 2 22.2% +15.00
Jack Kearney 8 0 0% −8.00
Leigh Roche 8 0 0% −8.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
18
Archived wins
£267k
Prize money
2021
Best season · 4 wins
Max Flamingo (IRE) — Fairyhouse Steel Handicap Hurdle (0-140) Fairyhouse · Apr 2021
£12,390
Eight Till Late (IRE) — Join The Coral Bet & Get Club Rated Hurdle Punchestown · Oct 2018
£12,320
Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB) — Ladbrokes Handicap Chase Down Royal · Nov 2019
£10,656
Notable horses
Max Flamingo (IRE) Rock Ya Boy Ya (IRE) Palace Rock (IRE) Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB) Eight Till Late (IRE) Giorni Felice (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Red Jazz (USA) 6.3% · 3–48
Progeny have won 7.7% of 1,870 runs since 2017 (130 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.1% from 171.
Battle Of Marengo (IRE) 9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 7.4% of 959 runs since 2018 (90 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.6% from 199.
Trans Island (GB) 9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 9% of 4,741 runs since 2008 (295 horses).
Kalanisi (IRE) 14.3% · 4–28
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,749 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Desert King (IRE) 15% · 3–20
Progeny have won 9% of 1,142 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.4% from 157.
Prince Of Lir (IRE) 0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,385 runs since 2020 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 200.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 271 · newest first

The latest 50 of 271 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 March 2018 to 21 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Jazzy Rock (IRE)J: Jimmy Dalton Navan Racecourse Handicap14f · Yielding · 23 ran 9th 7/2F
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Palace Rock (IRE)J: Megan de Souza-Wearen Racing Again November 7th Handicap12f · Soft · 14 ran 14th 150/1
10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Saoirses Choice (IRE)J: James Ryan WTW Willis Fillies Maiden7f · Soft · 11 ran 10th 400/1
08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Jazzy Rock (IRE)J: Megan de Souza-Wearen Welcome Back To Thurles Handicap12.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 6th 14/1
28 Aug 26 Down Royal (IRE) Saoirses Choice (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Dale Farm Dromona Mares Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 10 ran UR 80/1
06 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Saoirses Choice (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Martin Reilly Hyundai Mares Maiden Hurdle18f · Good · 13 ran 9th 14/1
12 Jul 26 Sligo (IRE) Megaball (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Durkin Bros. Electrical Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 11 ran PU 100/1
10 Jul 26 Kilbeggan Go Avel (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien New Forest Estate & Golf Club Handicap Hurdle (0-100)25f · Good · 15 ran 9th 33/1
13 Jun 26 Downpatrick Go Avel (IRE)J: Mr B M Coonan Denvir's Of Downpatrick (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)22f · Good · 14 ran 9th 25/1
07 Jun 26 Punchestown Saoirses Choice (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16.5f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 9th 33/1
28 May 26 Limerick Saoirses Choice (IRE)J: Mr B M Coonan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race16f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 16/1
28 May 26 Limerick Go Avel (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Irish Wire Products Ltd. Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)20f · Soft · 15 ran 4th 40/1
12 May 26 Sligo Go Avel (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Rosses Point Caravan Park Handicap Hurdle (0-100)18f · Good · 15 ran 9th 40/1
12 Jan 26 Punchestown Starword (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Matchbook 50:50 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran SU 250/1
29 Dec 25 Leopardstown Starword (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Irish Stallion Farms EBF Academy Hurdle18f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 11th 80/1
17 Nov 25 Navan Jazzy Rock (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Hotel Park St. Johann In Tirol Austria Handicap Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 11 ran 7th 10/1
27 Oct 25 Wexford Rock Ya Boy Ya (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Start Your Free Trial On Racing TV Now Rated Novice Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 7 ran 1st 6/1
23 Oct 25 Clonmel Jazzy Rock (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Yielding · 12 ran 4th 8/1
09 Oct 25 Tramore Rock Ya Boy Ya (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Ardmore Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Yielding · 8 ran 1st 7/4F
05 Oct 25 Killarney Rock Ya Boy Ya (IRE)J: Alix Balfe O'Sullivan's Cascade Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Yielding · 13 ran 1st 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Francis Casey's strike rate?
Francis Casey has won 18 of 271 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.6% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Francis Casey do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 44 runners (4.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Francis Casey's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 271 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 5 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).