Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.1%−4.1
n=48 · A/E 0.44 · £1 −27.80
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.2
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.2
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
0%
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
14.3%+8.1
n=7 · A/E 4.11 · £1 +13.20
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
3.8%−2.4
n=26 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −10.90
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f9.4% vs 6.2% · n=53
With a new jockey booking7.8% vs 6.2% · n=64 · A/E 1.67
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)2514%−6.50
Good to Soft2100%−20.00
Good2129.5%+11.00
Soft2129.5%+37.10
Heavy9111.1%+1.60
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)2428.3%+38.50
Longchamp (FR)1915.3%+1.20
Deauville (FR)1317.7%−0.20
Saint-Cloud (FR)1300%−13.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)800%−8.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)5120%+4.60
Craon (FR)400%−4.00
Strasbourg (FR)300%−2.00
Toulouse (FR)3133.3%+11.10
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)100%−1.00
Vichy (FR)100%−1.00
Clairefontaine100%−1.00
Chateaubriant100%−1.00
Nantes (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 12613.8%−10.90
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite500%0.00−5.00
2nd–3rd fav900%0.00−9.00
4th–6th fav2428.3%1.15−1.60
7th+ in betting5747%2.26+38.80
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f5359.4%+48.70
1m – 1m1f2100%−21.00
6f – 7f1218.3%+6.50
1m5f – 2m800%−8.00
Under 6f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008100%—
201210220%+43.60
20138112.5%+6.10
20141100%−11.00
20159111.1%+3.80
2016300%−3.00
2017100%−1.00
2018400%−4.00
20191119.1%+8.50
20201119.1%+8.20
2021600%−6.00
2022400%−4.00
2023400%−4.00
2024600%−6.00
2025700%−7.00
2026100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3825.3%−0.30
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners3113.2%−14.90
14-16 runners2813.6%−8.80
8-10 runners2114.8%−11.40
17+ runners8112.5%+10.50
5-7 runners8225%+48.80
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 30 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 30 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive; 20 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard; 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
·0·001033008017
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Quidamo (GB) — Prix Max Sicard () (Turf) Toulouse (FR) · Dec 2013 · Listed
£24,390
Quidamo (GB) — Prix de Cayras (Conditions) (4yo+) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Jul 2015
£12,791
Key To Magic (GER) — Prix de la Pelouse aux Yearlings (Handicap) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Chantilly (FR) · Dec 2019
Progeny have won 15.8% of 2,243 runs since 2008 (250 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 19.6% from 276. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 150.
Progeny have won 13.6% of 975 runs since 2013 (131 horses). Strongest on Good going: 23.6% from 225. Weakest on Soft going: 9.9% from 312. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 16.8% from 143.
Progeny have won 11.4% of 1,922 runs since 2011 (268 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8% from 488. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.1% from 384.
Progeny have won 8.9% of 358 runs since 2019 (66 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 11.9% from 143.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 98 · newest first
The latest 50 of 98 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 July 2007 to 14 April 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Frau J Mayer's strike rate?
Frau J Mayer has won 6 of 97 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.2% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Frau J Mayer's Fair A/E?
1.06, from 94 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Frau J Mayer·SR 6.2%·A/E 1.06
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy