Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 13% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−13.0
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−13.0
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
10%−3.0
n=10 · A/E 1.72 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−13.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
11.1%−1.9
n=9 · A/E 2.28 · £1 −0.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−13.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat22313.6%−2.00
Hurdle100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)700%−7.00
Good6233.3%+5.50
Good to Soft4125%+4.50
Soft400%−4.00
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)700%−7.00
Chantilly (FR)400%−4.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)4250%+6.50
Saint-Cloud (FR)300%−3.00
Longchamp (FR)2150%+6.50
Chateaubriant (FR)100%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Le Touquet (FR)100%—
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav3266.7%5.13+7.50
4th–6th fav10110%1.24−1.50
7th+ in betting900%0.00−9.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f900%−9.00
1m2f – 1m4f7228.6%+6.50
6f – 7f5120%+1.50
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
2m1f – 2m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2009100%—
2010200%−2.00
2011300%−3.00
2012200%−2.00
2014500%−5.00
2015100%−1.00
20162150%+3.00
20174125%+1.50
20253133.3%+5.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7114.3%+1.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners10220%+1.50
14-16 runners600%−6.00
11-13 runners4125%+4.50
5-7 runners200%−2.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 14 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 14 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 10 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard; 10 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
L'Invincible (FR) — Prix Crudite (Maiden) (3yo Fillies) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · May 2017
£12,051
Sally For Me (FR) — Prix Magister (Conditions) (3yo) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Apr 2016
Progeny have won 15.8% of 2,243 runs since 2008 (250 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 19.6% from 276. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 150.
Invincible Spirit (IRE)33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,875 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Johannesburg (USA)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 9.8% of 2,562 runs since 2008 (191 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 244. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 3.8% from 104.
Progeny have won 11.7% of 1,765 runs since 2019 (294 horses). Strongest on Good going: 15.4% from 267. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 402. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.5% from 236. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.7% from 493.
Montjeu (IRE)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 12.3% of 7,971 runs since 2008 (665 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.3% from 686.
Progeny have won 9.8% of 2,702 runs since 2015 (265 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.8% from 380.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 24 archived runs · newest first
Every one of J-P-J Dubois's 24 archived runners, from 17 September 2005 to 10 July 2025, newest first — 3 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J-P-J Dubois's strike rate?
J-P-J Dubois has won 3 of 23 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 runners, so read the count before the percentage.
J-P-J Dubois·SR 13%·A/E 1.99
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