Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−9.2
n=32 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −32.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.8%+2.6
n=17 · A/E 1.95 · £1 −1.70
Debutants · first career start
16.7%+7.5
n=12 · A/E 2.68 · £1 +6.10
First-time headgear · true-first definition
13.3%+4.1
n=15 · A/E 2.41 · £1 +3.10
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−9.2
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.52 · £1 +0.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−9.2
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking5% vs 9.2% · n=60
Over 1m2f – 1m4f13.3% vs 9.2% · n=30
In Flat races9.2% vs 9.2% · n=98 · A/E 1.27
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)4249.5%−12.45
Soft30310%+15.00
Good to Soft1700%−17.00
Heavy5120%−2.00
Good3133.3%+4.10
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (AW)28310.7%−6.65
Vichy (FR)2514%−8.00
Chantilly (FR)1218.3%−1.70
Saint-Cloud10220%+18.00
Marseille Borely (FR)6116.7%−3.00
Lyon-La Soie (FR)6116.7%−1.00
Longchamp (FR)600%−6.00
Marseille Pont-de-Vivaux (FR)200%−2.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)100%−1.00
Salon-de-Provence (FR)100%−1.00
Moulins (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 418211.1%−9.75
Class 31200%−12.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite4125%1.21−0.75
2nd–3rd fav17423.5%1.58+4.90
4th–6th fav2328.7%1.07−1.70
7th+ in betting5423.7%1.07−15.80
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f30413.3%+8.10
6f – 7f2926.9%−1.00
1m – 1m1f26311.5%−7.45
1m5f – 2m600%−6.00
Under 6f500%−5.00
2m1f – 2m4f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202210220%+21.50
2023900%−9.00
2024700%−7.00
2025800%−8.00
202664710.9%−10.85
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5159.8%+5.40
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4436.8%−19.80
11-13 runners3126.5%−3.00
8-10 runners14321.4%−2.75
17+ runners8112.5%+13.20
5-7 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 29 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 29 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J-P Gauvin (3) and E Bernhardt (2); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard, most often for S Labate (3); 26 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
3 from 8
Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00502201400721011
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.6% of 1,736 runs since 2019 (287 horses). Strongest on Good going: 15.4% from 266. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 393. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.7% from 234. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.6% from 484.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,087 runs since 2020 (246 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.7% from 245. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.1% from 199.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,109 runs since 2021 (282 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.2% from 154. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.7% from 149. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.8% from 304.
Progeny have won 6.3% of 540 runs since 2021 (63 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 98 · newest first
The latest 50 of 98 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2022 to 31 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Louis Bernhardt's strike rate?
Louis Bernhardt has won 9 of 98 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.2% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Louis Bernhardt in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Louis Bernhardt's Fair A/E?
1.27, from 98 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Louis Bernhardt·SR 9.2%·A/E 1.27
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