Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−6.5
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.5
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.5
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
100%
n=2 · A/E 2.40 · £1 +3.19
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−6.5
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
12.5%+6.0
n=8 · A/E 1.36 · £1 −4.25
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good2328.7%+59.44
Soft2214.5%−18.25
Standard (AW)700%−7.00
Good to Soft5120%+2.50
Heavy500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Gowran Park1218.3%+69.00
Cork11218.2%+0.25
Curragh1100%−11.00
Naas9111.1%−7.56
Dundalk (AW)700%−7.00
Killarney400%−4.00
Tipperary300%−3.00
Limerick200%−2.00
Clonmel (IRE)100%−1.00
Navan100%−1.00
Roscommon100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 18112.5%−4.25
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite22100%2.40+3.19
2nd–3rd fav9111.1%0.78−1.50
4th–6th fav2000%0.00−20.00
7th+ in betting3113.2%1.33+50.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f2114.8%−19.56
Under 6f19210.5%−7.75
1m – 1m1f1616.3%+65.00
1m2f – 1m4f600%−6.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022900%−9.00
2023400%−4.00
20243133.3%+4.50
20252015%+61.00
20262627.7%−20.81
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3612.8%+45.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners2600%−26.00
11-13 runners1616.3%+65.00
17+ runners800%−8.00
8-10 runners7228.6%+4.25
5-7 runners5120%−3.56
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 7 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 7 horses listed, none arrived from another yard in our archive — all 7 had their first archived run here.
1 has since run for another yard; 6 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
··000011250100·
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,060 runs since 2008 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.3% from 117. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,802 runs since 2008 (937 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 272 · newest first
The latest 50 of 272 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 March 2005 to 23 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is M J Byrne's strike rate?
M J Byrne has won 4 of 62 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is M J Byrne in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is M J Byrne's Fair A/E?
0.90, from 62 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
M J Byrne·SR 6.5%·A/E 0.90
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