Mme I Pacault
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.28). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 17% off breaks of two months or more (243 runs).
The record is strongest at Pau (28.3%, n=60), clear of the yard's 15.4% baseline. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 9.6% (n=94, Fair A/E 1.42). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 16.9% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.58 and +256.00 to a £1 stake over 243 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Sebastien Leloup rides 13% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (15.2%, A/E 1.23) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (25%, n=36) and in Flat races (23.6%, n=55). 24 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Zeturf Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris at Auteuil (FR) (May 2019, £332,432). The stable star of the record: Toutancarmont (FR) — 10 wins from 27 runs for the yard.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 15.4% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, lifetimeJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 765 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 765 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 March 2005 to 6 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Mme I Pacault's strike rate?
- Mme I Pacault has won 112 of 729 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.4% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Mme I Pacault do best at?
- Pau by strike rate: 17 wins from 60 runners (28.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Mme I Pacault?
- Sebastien Leloup, with 92 runners since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (15.2%).
- Is Mme I Pacault in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Mme I Pacault's Fair A/E?
- 1.28, from 622 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.