Skip to content
Trainer profile

Paul Davies

55 runners in the lifetime window · 13 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner May 2017 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
6–55
Wins / Runs
10.9%
Strike rate
n=55
14 (26%)
Placed
1.76
Fair A/E
n=55 · 1.55 incl. margin
+29.50
£1 level stake
n=55 at SP · +53.6%
£31,314
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 15.6%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.7%−2.2
n=23 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +16.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+1.6
n=8 · A/E 4.24 · £1 +18.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.9
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
100%+89.1
n=1 · A/E 8.36 · £1 +6.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
15.6%+4.7
n=32 · A/E 2.63 · £1 +46.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up 15.6% vs 10.9% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Chase 40 5 12.5% +18.50
Hurdle 8 1 12.5% +18.00
NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 18 5 27.8% +53.50
Good 12 1 8.3% +1.00
Heavy 11 0 0% −11.00
Good to Soft 10 0 0% −10.00
Good to Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Warwick 7 2 28.6% +24.50
Chepstow 6 0 0% −6.00
Bangor-on-Dee 5 0 0% −5.00
Cheltenham 4 0 0% −4.00
Hereford 4 0 0% −4.00
Worcester 4 1 25% +22.00
Carlisle 4 1 25% +3.50
Towcester 3 1 33.3% +3.50
Newton Abbot 3 0 0% −3.00
Stratford 3 1 33.3% +10.00
Doncaster 2 0 0% −2.00
Fontwell 2 0 0% −2.00
Southwell 2 0 0% −2.00
Ludlow 2 0 0% −2.00
Wetherby 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 26 4 15.4% +19.50
Class 5 16 2 12.5% +23.00
Class 6 11 0 0% −11.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 0 0% 0.00 −1.00
2nd–3rd fav 5 2 40% 3.12 +7.00
4th–6th fav 30 4 13.3% 1.97 +42.50
7th+ in betting 19 0 0% 0.00 −19.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
68.8% completed · 48 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 40 67.5% 1 2 10 0 0
Hurdle 8 75% 0 0 2 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Emma Soda (GB) 22 4 6 22 Mar 17
Drom (GB)then Robin Dickin 6 0 1 14 Dec 11
All Hope (GB) 5 0 1 23 Oct 13
Cannon Bridge (IRE)from Evan Williams · then S L Bevan 5 1 3 27 May 11
Some Timbering (IRE)from Michael Scudamore 5 0 1 11 May 10
The Speedy Man (IRE)from Denis Paul Murphy 3 0 0 11 Jun 12
Mi Man Sam (IRE)from George Jones 2 0 0 16 Mar 15
Lan Na Lamh (IRE)from R P Rath 2 0 1 5 May 10
Dolly Boru (GB) 1 0 0 17 May 17
Killackey's Pub (IRE) 1 0 0 19 Aug 13
Samtheman (GB)from Chris Nenadich · then Graeme McPherson 1 1 1 4 Jul 12
Chandlers Cross (IRE)from M Scudamore · then David Rees 1 0 0 23 Apr 10
All 13 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 13 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 9 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
01427090500·000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Peter Carberry 19 4 21.1% +26.50
Liam Treadwell 11 0 0% −11.00
Mr D J Griffiths 5 0 0% −5.00
Dave Crosse 4 0 0% −4.00
Mr D S Jones 3 0 0% −3.00
Miss Hannah Lewis 3 1 33.3% +10.00
Miss Isabel Tompsett 2 0 0% −2.00
Mr T Weston 2 0 0% −2.00
Ed Cookson 1 0 0% −1.00
Mr P J Tolman 1 0 0% −1.00
Alice Mills 1 1 100% +25.00
Ben Poste 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→
7
Archived wins
£36,168
Prize money
2016
Best season · 1 win
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Emma Soda (GB) — Jim Dimmock 50 Years In Racing Memorial Handicap Chase Towcester · Feb 2016 · Class 4
£6,330
Cannon Bridge (IRE) — cheltenham.co.uk Champion Hunters' Chase Cheltenham · May 2007 · Class 4
£4,685
Emma Soda (GB) — Apollobet Online Games And Casino Handicap Chase Carlisle · Mar 2014 · Class 4
£4,224
Notable horses
Emma Soda (GB) Cannon Bridge (IRE) Samtheman (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Milan (GB) 18.2% · 4–22
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,848 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Gildoran (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 9.5% of 63 runs since 2008 (13 horses).
Accordion (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 10.8% of 3,309 runs since 2008 (327 horses).
Beat All (USA) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 7% of 2,513 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.6% from 320. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.6% from 192. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 12.5% from 120.
Definite Article (GB) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 10.5% of 5,617 runs since 2008 (527 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.1% from 138. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.3% from 211.
Sayarshan (FR) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 5.4% of 388 runs since 2008 (51 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 58 · newest first

The latest 50 of 58 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 April 2007 to 17 May 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
17 May 17 Worcester Dolly Boru (GB)J: Dave Crosse Eventsi Marquee Hire - Visit eventsimarquees.co.uk Mares' Intermediate Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Soft · 14 ran 10th 50/1
22 Mar 17 Warwick Emma Soda (GB)J: Dave Crosse Executive Hire News Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 29f · Heavy · 9 ran PU 8/1
09 Feb 17 Doncaster Emma Soda (GB)J: Dave Crosse Eventmaster Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 50/1
20 Jan 17 Chepstow Emma Soda (GB)J: Dave Crosse 188bet.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23.5f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 66/1
15 Dec 16 Towcester Emma Soda (GB)J: Sean Bowen at totepool Tweet Us With Your Toteelfie Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 18/1
13 Mar 16 Warwick Emma Soda (GB)J: Peter Carberry Whites - Free Skips For Metal Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 29f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 12/1
17 Feb 16 Towcester Emma Soda (GB)J: Peter Carberry Jim Dimmock 50 Years In Racing Memorial Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24.5f · Soft · 8 ran 1st 11/2
05 Feb 16 Chepstow Emma Soda (GB)J: Peter Carberry 32red Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 2nd 25/1
31 Dec 15 Warwick Emma Soda (GB)J: Peter Carberry Local Parking Security Ltd Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Heavy · 7 ran PU 10/1
18 Mar 15 Warwick Emma Soda (GB)J: Peter Carberry Ges Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 29f · Soft · 9 ran 1st 9/2
16 Mar 15 Southwell Mi Man Sam (IRE)J: Peter Carberry Southwell Annual Membership Offers Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 14 ran 10th 100/1
03 Mar 15 Exeter Emma Soda (GB)J: Peter Carberry Higos Insurance Services Devon National Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 30.5f · Heavy · 13 ran 5th 16/1
09 Jan 15 Doncaster Mi Man Sam (IRE)J: Peter Carberry Betdaq No Premium Charge Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 12 ran 9th 100/1
14 Dec 14 Carlisle Emma Soda (GB)J: Liam Treadwell Kath Delaney Retirement Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 26f · Heavy · 4 ran 3rd 15/8J
06 Mar 14 Carlisle Emma Soda (GB)J: Peter Carberry Apollobet Online Games And Casino Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 26f · Soft · 6 ran 1st 13/2
22 Jan 14 Southwell Emma Soda (GB)J: Peter Carberry 32red Casino Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 25.5f · Heavy · 7 ran PU 6/1
15 Dec 13 Carlisle Emma Soda (GB)J: Peter Carberry Ppm The Property Maintenance People Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 26f · Heavy · 5 ran 2nd 12/1
23 Oct 13 Fontwell All Hope (GB)J: Ben Poste 32 Bonus At 32red.com Conditional Jockeys' Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Soft · 12 ran PU 25/1
19 Aug 13 Worcester Killackey's Pub (IRE)J: Peter Carberry Sawyer's 70th Year Walkabout Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (Div 1)Class 6 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 10th 66/1
19 Apr 13 Fontwell Emma Soda (GB)J: Peter Carberry Happy Birthday David Chivers Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 27f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Davies's strike rate?
Paul Davies has won 6 of 55 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paul Davies's Fair A/E?
1.76, from 55 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).