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Jockey profile

Mr P J Tolman

157 rides in the lifetime window · 87 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride May 2011 97% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
8–157
Wins / Runs
5.1%
Strike rate
n=157
36 (23%)
Placed
0.69
Fair A/E
n=156 · 0.58 incl. margin
−45.67
£1 level stake
n=157 at SP · −29.1%
£54,987
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
4.5%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 40 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.69). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 8% off breaks of two months or more (38 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 157 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7.9% First rides: 6% Claiming: 5.2%
The read

The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 5.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −41.67 to a £1 stake over 153 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. The rider also read well in Class 6 (10%, n=30). The record read poorly off a 15-30-day break — 1.9% over 53 rides, 3.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.40 across 70 rides (2.9% strike, −36.67 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.1% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
6%+0.9
n=84 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −12.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
7.7%+2.6
n=13 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −4.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
7.9%+2.8
n=38 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +1.33
When favourite
0%
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
5.2%+0.1
n=153 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −41.67
Big fields · 14+ runners
3.6%−1.5
n=56 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −11.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Class 6 10% vs 5.1% · n=30
Off a 15-30-day break 1.9% vs 5.1% · n=53
Over 2m5f – 3m 2.2% vs 5.1% · n=46
In Hurdle races 2.9% vs 5.1% · n=70
Over 1m5f – 2m 7.5% vs 5.1% · n=40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 70 2 2.9% −36.67
Chase 66 4 6.1% −2.00
NH Flat 16 2 12.5% −2.00
Flat 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 55 3 5.5% −25.17
Good to Soft 46 3 6.5% −1.00
Good to Firm 26 2 7.7% +10.50
Soft 20 0 0% −20.00
Heavy 9 0 0% −9.00
Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Hereford 15 2 13.3% +15.33
Ludlow 11 1 9.1% −2.00
Worcester 10 0 0% −10.00
Ffos Las 9 1 11.1% +20.00
Uttoxeter 9 1 11.1% −2.50
Cheltenham 8 0 0% −8.00
Chepstow 8 0 0% −8.00
Wincanton 7 0 0% −7.00
Taunton 6 0 0% −6.00
Stratford 6 1 16.7% +1.50
Leicester 6 1 16.7% +13.00
Newbury 6 1 16.7% +4.00
Exeter 5 0 0% −5.00
Aintree 5 0 0% −5.00
Plumpton 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 51 2 3.9% −17.67
Class 5 48 2 4.2% −14.50
Class 6 30 3 10% +4.50
Class 3 20 1 5% −10.00
Class 2 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 10 0 0% 0.00 −10.00
2nd–3rd fav 23 4 17.4% 1.14 +4.33
4th–6th fav 43 2 4.7% 0.66 −4.00
7th+ in betting 81 2 2.5% 0.80 −36.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
82.4% completed · 136 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 66 80.3% 0 3 9 0 1
Hurdle 70 84.3% 2 1 8 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Oopsmylord (IRE) 9 1 4 19 Feb 11
Wor Rom (IRE) 8 1 3 26 Jan 10
U B Carefull (GB) 6 1 2 25 Nov 10
Tiermore (IRE) 6 1 2 7 Nov 10
Cresswell Ruby (IRE) 5 0 0 17 Jan 10
Howard Howard (GB) 5 0 0 15 May 09
Radetsky March (IRE) 4 0 1 25 Jan 10
Good Company (IRE) 3 1 1 4 May 11
Red Law (IRE) 3 0 1 1 Feb 11
Flying Doctor (GB) 3 0 1 25 May 10
Glengap (IRE) 3 0 0 25 May 10
Cusp (GB) 3 1 1 12 Apr 09
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 87 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
019000220022060
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardAlison Thorpe
27% of all rides
4.7% SR · A/E 0.60
TrainerRWSR£1
Alison Thorpe 43 2 4.7% −7.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
8
Archived wins
£58,263
Prize money
2010
Best season · 3 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Jim Bobs Girl (IRE) — Strutt & Parker Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase Newbury · Nov 2008 · Class 3
£9,003
Cusp (GB) — Severn Valley Catering Handicap Chase Hereford · Feb 2009 · Class 5
£2,602
U B Carefull (GB) — Phoneline Brecon And Adept Telecom Novices' Hurdle Ffos Las · Jun 2010 · Class 4
£2,602
Notable horses
Oopsmylord (IRE) Wor Rom (IRE) U B Carefull (GB) Tiermore (IRE) Good Company (IRE) Cusp (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Rock Hopper (GB) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 6.6% of 411 runs since 2008 (50 horses).
Subtle Power (IRE) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 10% of 748 runs since 2008 (65 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 127. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13.9% from 115. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.5% from 153.
Roi de Rome (USA) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 8.2% of 269 runs since 2008 (37 horses).
Bob's Return (IRE) 16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,268 runs since 2008 (219 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.8% from 254.
Exit To Nowhere (USA) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,787 runs since 2008 (290 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 155.
Pyramus (USA) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.6% of 162 runs since 2008 (15 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 172 · newest first

The latest 50 of 172 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 December 2006 to 4 May 2011.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
04 May 11 Cheltenham Good Company (IRE)T: Steve Flook Cheltenham Collection Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good To Firm · 11 ran PU 14/1
29 Apr 11 Bangor-on-Dee Goscar Rock (IRE)T: P Hall James Griffith Memorial Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 24f · Good · 5 ran 5th 10/3
15 Apr 11 Chepstow Pathian Prince (GB)T: E R Clough Dunraven Bowl Novices' Hunters' Chase (For The Dunraven Windows South and West Wales Point-to-Point) (Championship)Class 5 · 23.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 8/1
12 Apr 11 Towcester Goscar Rock (IRE)T: P Hall Haygain Hay Steamers Maiden Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 20f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 2nd 7/2
07 Apr 11 Aintree Good Company (IRE)T: Steve Flook John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase (National Course)Class 2 · 21f · Soft · 22 ran 10th 33/1
31 Mar 11 Ludlow Gem Mill (IRE)T: Mrs G Davies Bitterley Point To Point Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 7th 100/1
24 Mar 11 Southwell Cottage River (IRE)T: P Hall Betting Secrets Revealed At Racingprofits.net Open Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 24f · Good · 13 ran PU 33/1
22 Mar 11 Kempton Pelennor (FR)T: R Scrine Marley Eternit Fired Sienna Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 6/1
13 Mar 11 Warwick Overlut (FR)T: R Scrine Air Wedding Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 20.5f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 11/2
11 Mar 11 Wincanton Driving Miss Suzie (GB)T: Debra Hamer Roy And Steven Hanney Memorial Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 15.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran F 20/1
07 Mar 11 Ffos Las Viking Affair (IRE)T: Rebecca Curtis Llewellyn Humphreys Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 21f · Good To Soft · 13 ran PU 16/1
04 Mar 11 Newbury Overlut (FR)T: R Scrine Rickety Bridge Hunters' Chase (In Aid Of West Berkshire Mencap)Class 6 · 22.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran UR 14/1
23 Feb 11 Ludlow Good Company (IRE)T: Steve Flook Magnus-Allcroft Memorial Trophy Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 20f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 1st 8/1
19 Feb 11 Haydock Oopsmylord (IRE)T: Steve Flook Bet totepool At totesport.com Walrus Hunters' ChaseClass 3 · 23f · Heavy · 5 ran 4th 50/1
15 Feb 11 Newcastle Catholic Hill (USA)T: Mark Gillard Newcastle Flooring Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 4th 12/1
04 Feb 11 Chepstow Catholic Hill (USA)T: Mark Gillard Lindley Catering Novices' ChaseClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 5 ran 5th 66/1
03 Feb 11 Wincanton Gentle George (GB)T: Steve Flook Stewart Tory Memorial Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 25f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 4th 11/1
01 Feb 11 Taunton Red Law (IRE)T: Mark Gillard Follow Paul Nicholls On Facebook And Twitter Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 18f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 6th 7/2F
30 Jan 11 Hereford Driving Miss Suzie (GB)T: Debra Hamer Lindley Catering Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Soft · 15 ran PU 33/1
28 Jan 11 Fontwell Littleton Aldor (IRE)T: Mark Gillard Chancelloroftheformchecker.co.uk Champion Jockey Of Fontwell Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 5th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mr P J Tolman's strike rate?
Mr P J Tolman has won 8 of 157 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mr P J Tolman's Fair A/E?
0.69, from 156 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).