4:05 Epsom
This Class 4 handicap over 1m2f17y at Epsom on good to soft ground features a field of ten where the KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive but not especially deep race. The top three in the KTB rankings are separated by just six points, with the selection Trio heading the list on 66. Most of the field are held-up types, which aligns with a pace shape that lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the race is set to be run at a steady tempo, making it tactical and likely to reward those who can be handy enough to pounce at the right moment. The majority of runners, including all five principals, are usually held up and produce their efforts late, so the key question will be whether any horse can get into a workable position without using up too much energy early. Being on the sharp end of a slow pace could prove an advantage around this track, particularly as the ground is on the easy side of good.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Trio KTB Selection66/100
Trio is a fair 3-year-old who has already won twice at this track from three runs. He showed useful improvement when winning his last two starts over a mile on good to soft ground, though he now steps up in trip for the first time which asks a fresh question. The yard has a solid 18% strike rate at Epsom from 153 runs. Charles Bishop and the trainer combine with a 20% and 18% strike rate respectively at the course, and the colt's record of one win from three on good to soft reads well. Usually held up, he will be produced late in what is expected to be a steadily-run affair from stall 10. His recent form of 357114 underlines progressive form at the right level.
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2Almekarem61/100
Almekarem is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after a win and a placed effort this season. He has already won over today's trip but is unproven on good to soft ground and makes his first start at Epsom. Prescott's 25% strike rate at the track from 113 runs offers some encouragement. Dylan Hogan takes the ride as the pair post an 11% strike rate together, though the jockey himself has a 15% record at Epsom. Usually held up, he will need to produce his effort at the right time in a race likely to be tactical. His form figures of 64-172 show consistency at this sort of level.
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3Hengest60/100
Hengest is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts at this trip. He has shown some promise at Epsom before without landing a blow, while the yard posts a solid 10% strike-rate here from 29 runs. The drop back from 1m4f looks sensible but he remains unproven on good to soft ground. Jason Watson rides for a trainer-jockey combination that has a 17% strike rate from 12 runs. Usually held up, he will be waited with from draw 9 in a steadily-run race. Recent form of 111890 includes three wins but also two poor efforts that temper enthusiasm.
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4Arthur's Realm57/100
Arthur's Realm is a fair performer who has been largely out of form for some time and finished only fifth on his most recent start. He has never won or placed in two runs at Epsom and his trainer has only three runs here so the track data is too limited to draw firm conclusions from. Drops back in trip today having won once from 18 starts at this distance while his record on good to soft reads one win from 14 runs. Darragh Keenan is aboard for a yard with a 33% strike rate at Epsom from a small sample. Usually held up, he will look to come from off the pace in what is set to be a tactical affair.
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5Mao Shang Wong55/100
Mao Shang Wong is a modest performer who has won three times over today's trip from ten attempts and showed he handles good to soft ground with a win from a single start. Recent form of 810275 suggests he remains competitive at this level without being anything special. Trainer has a solid 12% strike rate from 140 runs at Epsom while this is the horse's first visit to the track. Saffie Osborne takes the mount for a trainer-jockey partnership that is 0-7. Usually held up, he will be produced late from stall 7 in a race that lacks an obvious leader.
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6Crystal Pier55/100
Crystal Pier is a fair 3 year old who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing third on his most recent visit. He has been below that level on his last two starts though and remains unproven on good to soft ground. The trip has not brought out any improvement so far either.
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7Perfect Scoundrel53/100
Perfect Scoundrel is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just one visit. Recent form has been solid with a win and a second in his last two starts, though he has never won on good to soft ground and could only manage a placing on his sole attempt. The yard holds a modest 10% strike rate at Epsom from a large sample. He steps up in class.
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8Double Red50/100
Double Red is a modest performer who has won once from two runs at Epsom and holds a solid record on good to soft ground with one win and a placing from three starts. Drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and a half though he has won three times from twelve starts at this distance. Trainer Henry Candy has a 10% strike rate from 77 runs at the track while jockey David Probert is 0-8 here. He steps up in class.
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9Sail On Sailor47/100
Sail On Sailor is a modest performer who has won both starts at this trip and showed useful course form when scoring here from stall 1 last time. He has a mixed record on good to soft with just one run so far, while the step up from 1m asks a fresh question. Simon Dow has an 8% strike rate from 533 runs at Epsom and Joe Leavy takes the ride. He steps up in class.
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10Hello Cotai42/100
Hello Cotai is a modest performer with a solid course record here having won two of six starts at Epsom. Has been competitive on good to soft ground without winning and has scored at today's trip. Trainer's modest strike rate at the track is reflected in an A/E of 0.78 from a large sample. He steps up in class.
KTB verdict
Trio looks the one to beat as the KTB Selection. A fair 3-year-old who has already won twice at Epsom from three starts, he showed useful improvement to land his last two races over a mile on good to soft and the yard's record at the track adds confidence. The step up to 1m2f is the main unknown but the steadily-run nature of the race should suit his held-up style. Main dangers are Almekarem, who arrives in good order and has won over the trip, and Hengest, who drops back in distance having won twice at this range and boasts some prior promise at the course.
KTB Selection Trio
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won twice at Epsom already?
Trio, who has won two from three starts at the track.
How many of the field are proven on good to soft ground?
Several have form on the surface, including Trio with one win from three, Arthur's Realm with one win from 14, Mao Shang Wong with one win from one, Perfect Scoundrel who has placed once from one, Double Red with one win from three, Sail On Sailor with one run, and Hello Cotai who has placed once from four.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Epsom among the principals?
Arthur's Realm's trainer has a 33% strike rate at Epsom from three runs, ahead of Almekarem's trainer on 25% from 113 runs.
Which runners are stepping up in class?
Perfect Scoundrel, Double Red, Sail On Sailor and Hello Cotai are all stepping up in class.
What is the course record of the KTB Selection?
Trio has won two from three starts at Epsom.
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