5:20 Doncaster
This Pertemps Handicap Stakes is a competitive Class 3 contest over 1m3f197y at Doncaster on good to soft ground, featuring a field of nine three- and four-year-olds plus an older handicapper. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Devil's Peak heading the ratings on 56 followed closely by My Ballyquinn on 54, while Masterinthewoods and Alfred Wincham both sit on 49. Overall the numbers point to a race where recent course experience, trip suitability and yard form at the track will play key roles, though several runners bring question marks over the ground or distance.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting Alfred Wincham can secure an uncontested lead from his front-running style while the rest of the field, dominated by held-up types, sit off him. With little pressure expected on the leader, the race is likely to be run at a steady gallop that could make it difficult for closers to reel him in late. The key question is whether any of the held-up principals can produce a strong enough finishing kick on this ground to overcome the uncontested advantage up front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Devil's Peak KTB Selection56/100
Devil's Peak is a fair performer who has shown mixed form across 11 runs this year, recording a win and a second along the way. He drops back in class from 1m6f to a trip he has never tried, which poses a fresh question, while his record on good to soft is modest with no win or place from two starts. The Gosden yard brings a solid 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 162 runs with an A/E of 1.04, and William Buick takes the ride boasting a 22% strike rate at the track from 515 rides with an A/E of 1.09. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 4. His recent form figures read 245126 and he steps back down in class having contested stronger races of late.
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2My Ballyquinn54/100
My Ballyquinn is a fair performer who has run well at this track on both starts, most recently finishing second. He has won twice this year but his latest efforts over longer distances have been mixed, and he is now dropping back in trip having already placed at this distance. The yard posts a modest 9% strike rate at Doncaster from 811 runs with an A/E of 0.75, which adds a note of caution, as does his single run on good to soft that brought no win or place. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he is drawn widest in stall 9. His recent form figures read 412120 and the booking of Daniel Tudhope, who has a 12% strike rate at the track from 585 rides with an A/E of 0.87, is a positive.
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3Masterinthewoods49/100
Masterinthewoods is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after three straight runner-up finishes and has already won over today's trip. The yard has a strong record at Doncaster with a 21% strike rate from 139 runs and an A/E of 1.11, while he has only tried good to soft once without placing and makes his first start here today. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 2. His recent form figures read -71222 and he steps up in class having contested lesser company of late. David Probert takes the ride with a 9% strike rate at the track from 267 rides and an A/E of 0.74.
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4Alfred Wincham49/100
Alfred Wincham is a fair performer who showed promise when winning over this trip on his second start. He was well held in a stronger race last time out and remains lightly raced with scope to improve. The yard has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at Doncaster, but the booking of Rossa Ryan, who has a 13% strike rate at the track from 210 rides with an A/E of 0.91, is a positive. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, he is drawn in stall 7 and could take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape. His recent form figures read 16 and he is unproven on good to soft ground.
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5Mr Freedom45/100
Mr Freedom is a fair handicapper who has run well here twice without winning, finishing third on both visits to Doncaster. He acts on good to soft ground having been placed once from three starts, and he holds strong claims at today's trip where he has won five times from eight attempts. The yard's modest record at the track is a slight negative but his overall form and course experience still make him a solid contender. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form figures read 65/358.
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6Itica45/100
Itica is a modest performer who has shown mixed form across five starts, including a win and two placed efforts but also some lesser runs. He steps up in trip today for a yard with a solid 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 436 runs with an A/E of 1.02. Oisin Murphy takes the ride, and the ground remains an unknown given no runs on good to soft. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, his recent form figures read 02-561.
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7Brighton View43/100
Brighton View is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins and a second from his last four starts. He has already placed here at Doncaster and steps up in trip having won the only time he has tried this distance. The yard's modest 5% strike-rate at the track from 75 runs with an A/E of 0.47 is a negative while the single run on good to soft ground yielded no reward. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form figures read 710213.
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8Railwayview Lady42/100
Railwayview Lady is a fair performer who has been below form on her last three starts after a promising second earlier in the year. She is unproven on good to soft ground and has failed to land a blow in two previous attempts at this trip. The trainer holds an 18% strike rate at Doncaster from 11 runs with an A/E of 0.66. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, her recent form figures read 20-889.
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9Mocking39/100
Mocking is a fair performer on his best days but has looked short of spark on his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having been placed once at this distance without winning, though he remains unproven on good to soft ground. The yard has a 0% strike rate from eight runners at Doncaster with an A/E of 0. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form figures read 01-664.
KTB verdict
Devil's Peak is the KTB Selection and shapes as the one to beat on his fair level of form, the drop back in class and the strong yard and jockey combination at Doncaster. His ability to produce a late effort fits the shape, though the untested trip and modest record on good to soft are the main reservations. The principals are closely matched, with My Ballyquinn's course placings and Masterinthewoods's recent consistency the most obvious dangers, while Alfred Wincham could prove hard to peg back if allowed an easy lead in a race with a lone-leader pace shape.
KTB Selection Devil's Peak
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven at the trip?
Mr Freedom holds strong claims at today's trip where he has won five times from eight attempts.
Who is likely to make the running?
Alfred Wincham tends to make the running or race on the pace and the pace shape indicates a lone leader with little to pressure him.
Which trainer has the strongest record at Doncaster in this field?
Emma Lavelle has a 21% strike rate at Doncaster from 139 runs with an A/E of 1.11.
How many of the runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Four runners are unproven on good to soft: Alfred Wincham, Itica, Railwayview Lady and Mocking.
Which horse has the best recent form at Doncaster?
My Ballyquinn has run well at this track on both starts, finishing second on his latest visit, while Brighton View has placed here once.
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