4:00 Sedgefield
This Class 5 handicap hurdle at Sedgefield over 2m3f188y on good ground brings together a field of ten where the KTB Fit ratings identify a tight group at the top. Roadshow heads the numbers on 69 with William Yeats, Aimeric, Tracker Issue and Beny Nahar Road all closely bunched behind on 66 to 55. The pace shape points to a lone leader scenario with little pressure expected on the front, which sets up an interesting test for those held up off the pace.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader likely to enjoy an uncontested lead, the race should unfold at a steady gallop that could prove difficult for closers to bridge in the latter stages. Most of the field, including the top three in the KTB Fit order, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late. Tracker Issue is the notable front-runner and could take advantage of the shape to dictate terms. The key question is whether any of the prominent runners can get away from the pack or if the held-up brigade will be able to close the gap on good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Roadshow KTB Selection69/100
Roadshow is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Sedgefield. He brings a solid 44 percent strike rate for Paul Nicholls at the track, backed by an A/E of 1.08 from 18 runs, while Freddie Keighley has a 50 percent strike rate here from six rides with an A/E of 1.76. His recent form of 417-69 shows he has been well held in both starts this season, and the trip looks a fresh question. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run style. His record on good ground stands at one win from 11 starts with two placed efforts, which is only modest.
-
2William Yeats66/100
William Yeats is a useful performer who has already won twice at Sedgefield, including over this trip, and arrives with recent form of 5633-1 that demonstrates consistency and a ready success last time. He holds a 1-from-3 record on good ground with two placed efforts, which is another plus. Sam England has an 18 percent strike rate at Sedgefield from 234 runs with an A/E of 0.98, while Jonathan England has a 17 percent strike rate from 255 rides with an A/E of 1.01. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence. He has a course record of two wins from four starts.
-
3Aimeric65/100
Aimeric is a useful performer who has been consistent of late with a string of placed efforts, including a second over course and distance. Jennie Candlish has a 17 percent strike rate at Sedgefield from 281 runs with an A/E of 0.94, while Sean Quinlan has a 14 percent strike rate from 526 rides with an A/E of 0.9. The 7-year-old goes well on good ground with four wins from 13 starts and seven placed efforts. He has run once here for a second-place finish. Usually held up and producing his effort late, though that read comes with medium confidence.
-
4Tracker Issue59/100
Tracker Issue is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has run well over this trip and on this ground before, and he was placed when he tried this track last time out. Dropping in class is a positive. The yard's 10 percent strike rate at Sedgefield from 40 runs with an A/E of 0.64 tempers expectations somewhat. Ryan Mania has a 12 percent strike rate here from 257 rides with an A/E of 0.95. The 4-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence in that style, and he has been placed once from six starts on good ground without winning.
-
5Beny Nahar Road55/100
Beny Nahar Road is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track, where his course record reads one win from two starts. Recent form of F-8406 is modest with a string of unplaced runs. Henry Hogarth has a 6 percent strike rate at Sedgefield from 154 runs with an A/E of 0.66, while Jamie Hamilton has an 8 percent strike rate from 280 rides with an A/E of 0.74. The 7-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence. His record on good ground stands at two wins from 17 starts with seven placed efforts.
-
6Lone Star53/100
Lone Star is a useful performer on his day with a win at this trip on his record. He has been out of the frame on his last four starts and his four runs at Sedgefield have produced no wins or places. Philip Kirby has a 14 percent strike rate here from 374 runs with an A/E of 0.96. The 9-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence. He holds two wins from 28 starts on good ground with seven placed efforts.
-
7Bodygroove51/100
Bodygroove is a useful performer who has run twice at Sedgefield without placing. He drops back in trip today having last run over three miles and holds a solid record on good ground with one win and a placing from seven starts. Micky Hammond has an 11 percent strike rate here from 969 runs with an A/E of 0.86, while Brian Hughes has a 20 percent strike rate from 1272 rides with an A/E of 0.95. The 6-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
-
8Bannister46/100
Bannister is useful on his day but has been largely out of form this season and the recent 85-604 sequence suggests he is struggling to recapture his best. Nick Kent has a 0 percent strike rate at Sedgefield from 27 runs with an A/E of 0, and the horse has never run here before. He has won on good ground with four successes from 25 starts and nine placed efforts but is now trying this trip for only the second time. The 9-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
-
9Yanka Blue44/100
Yanka Blue is a fair performer who has shown consistency around this track with two placed efforts from four runs. He has been competitive on good ground without winning, placed once from nine starts, and has failed to land the race in three attempts at today's trip. Barry John Murphy has a 0 percent strike rate from seven runs at Sedgefield. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
-
10Joto37/100
Joto is a modest performer who has shown some ability at this trip without winning. He has been out of the frame in both runs at Sedgefield and holds a similar record on good ground with no win or place from three starts. John Dawson's record here is too small a sample to judge. The 6-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence.
KTB verdict
Roadshow is the KTB Selection. He is taken to capitalise on his previous winning visit to Sedgefield and the strong trainer and jockey figures at the track, despite being well held in both starts this season. The trip is an unknown and his record on good ground is only modest, yet the uncontested lead up front may set up the race in a way that suits a late run. William Yeats and Aimeric look the main dangers on the back of strong course form and consistency, with Tracker Issue potentially able to exploit the pace shape from the front.
KTB Selection Roadshow
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Sedgefield. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Sedgefield racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Sedgefield results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer/jockey combination at Sedgefield?
Roadshow, with Paul Nicholls showing a 44% strike rate at the track (A/E 1.08) and Freddie Keighley recording a 50% strike rate (A/E 1.76).
How many previous course winners are in the field?
Three: Roadshow (1 from 1), William Yeats (2 from 4) and Beny Nahar Road (1 from 2).
Who is the only confirmed front-runner in the race?
Tracker Issue, whose run style is to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse has the best recent form?
William Yeats, whose figures of 5633-1 include a ready success last time out.
What is the course record of the top-rated horse on good ground?
Roadshow has one win from 11 starts on good ground with two placed efforts.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
More from Kickthebookies