3:00 Ayr
This Class 2 Ladbrokes Kilkerran Handicap over 1m2f at Ayr on good to soft ground brings together an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top end. The principals are led by Have Secret on a 62 rating, with Glittering Surf, Wild Thoughts, Dain Ma Nut In and Steel Raven all closely matched on 61 to 55. Several runners are either stepping up or dropping in class, and with a number of hold-up types in the line-up the strong pace anticipated could play a significant part in the outcome.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected with at least two habitual front-runners present, notably Dain Ma Nut In and Altareq. This shape is likely to test those racing prominently and could lead to a collapse in the closing stages, playing into the hands of horses that are held up and produce their effort late. The key question is whether any prominent runners can get away with it or if the race will fall to one of the patient types coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Have Secret KTB Selection62/100
Have Secret is a useful performer who has shown his best form at Ayr, where he has been placed once from three starts. He drops back to a trip at which he has won four times from 34 starts, though his form this year has been modest with a string of poor efforts. The Richard and Peter Fahey yard posts a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.39 from 17 runs, while Billy Garritty has a 12% strike rate here from 162 rides with an A/E of 1.07. He is held up with high confidence in that run-style and usually produces his effort late. He has been placed three times from ten starts on good to soft, remaining competitive though without a win on the surface.
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2Glittering Surf61/100
Glittering Surf is a useful performer who showed smart form when winning a 1m handicap at Newmarket last summer before a creditable seventh in a strong listed race. He dropped out tamely on his return at Sandown in May and now steps up in trip for the first time, which poses a fresh question. Owen Burrows has a 50% strike rate at Ayr from only two runs with an A/E of 2.17, though the yard's overall record at the track remains limited. Callum Rodriguez operates at a 10% strike rate here from 319 rides with an A/E of 0.75. He is unproven on good to soft ground and has no course form on record.
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3Wild Thoughts59/100
Wild Thoughts is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning often and has shown placed form both at this trip and on good to soft ground. Stall one could prove useful at Ayr, where the Richard Spencer yard posts a 13% strike rate with an A/E of 1.09 from 38 runs. Saffie Osborne has a 33% strike rate at the track from only three rides with an A/E of 1.37, though the small sample makes that hard to judge fully. He typically settles in mid-division. He has been placed once from one run on good to soft without a win on the surface and has no course form on record.
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4Dain Ma Nut In58/100
Dain Ma Nut In is a useful performer who has won once from two starts at Ayr and therefore knows his way around the track. He drops back to a trip at which he has won three times from seven attempts, though he has never placed from four runs on good to soft ground. The Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore operation has a 12% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 0.75 from 110 runs, while Jason Hart has a 13% strike rate here from 557 rides with an A/E of 0.94. He tends to make the running or race prominently. He has won here from two starts at the course.
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5Steel Raven55/100
Steel Raven is a fair performer who has shown useful placed form at this trip including a win from one run. Dropping back from 1m6f looks a sensible move after a couple of lesser efforts. Adrian Keatley has a solid 19% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.2 from 174 runs, while Barry McHugh operates at a more modest 7% strike rate here from 192 rides with an A/E of 0.82. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. He has been placed once from two starts on good to soft without a win on the surface and has no course form on record.
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6Altareq54/100
Altareq is a fair performer who has won on his only previous visit to Ayr. He has been out of form for a while with three modest efforts since his last success and his sole run on good to soft ground brought no joy. Dropping back from 1m4f to a trip he has won over adds some hope but the recent record remains a clear negative. He tends to make the running or race prominently.
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7Tiernan50/100
Tiernan is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent sequence of 602152. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip at which he has already placed once, though he is unproven on good to soft ground from just two attempts. The Iain Jardine yard and Andrew Mullen both have solid if unspectacular records at Ayr, but this is his first run here. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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8Dark Moon Rising47/100
Dark Moon Rising is a fair performer who has shown up well at this track on his better days, finishing placed twice from five runs here. He drops back to a trip he has won over before though his recent form is patchy and he has failed to win in 23 starts at this distance. Kevin Ryan and Tom Eaves both have below-average records at Ayr. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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9Financer45/100
Financer is a fair performer who has won once from two runs at Ayr and arrives in decent nick judged on his recent 214721 sequence. He has won at this trip in the past yet steps back up from 1m0½f today while his record on good to soft shows placed form but no win from five starts. The Tim Easterby yard posts an 11% strike rate here from 959 runs and David Allan is 12% from 672 rides at the track. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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10Impartiality45/100
Impartiality is a fair performer who has been consistent of late, finishing second four times in a row and placing on both previous visits to Ayr. He has handled good to soft ground well enough in the past and is proven at this trip, though he is dropping back from a slightly longer distance last time. The Phillip Makin yard's modest record at the track is a negative that the jockey's more respectable figures do little to offset. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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11Galyx43/100
Galyx is a fair performer who has shown enough to win twice this year including at today's trip. Recent form has been mixed with a win at Haydock followed by a poor run last time, while he has only tried good to soft ground once without placing. Both Jack Channon and George Bass have too few runs at Ayr to judge and this is the horse's first visit here. He is usually held up.
KTB verdict
Have Secret is the KTB Selection. He has shown his best form at Ayr with a placed effort from three runs here and drops back to a trip he has won at four times, while the yard and jockey both have solid records at the track. The strong pace expected should suit his hold-up style as he produces his effort late. His main dangers are Glittering Surf, who brings useful prior form though with questions on the trip and ground, and Wild Thoughts, who is consistent, well drawn and has already shown placed form on good to soft. Dain Ma Nut In and Steel Raven are also capable of playing a part if the race sets up as anticipated.
KTB Selection Have Secret
This is the narrative read of the 3:00 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Dain Ma Nut In and Altareq both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many times has Have Secret won over this trip?
Have Secret has won at this trip four times from 34 starts.
What is the trainer strike rate at Ayr for the yard of the top-rated horse?
Richard and Peter Fahey have a 12% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.39 from 17 runs.
Which horse is dropping in class from a listed race?
Glittering Surf showed smart form when winning a 1m handicap at Newmarket last summer before a creditable seventh in a strong listed race and is now dropping in class.
How many of the field are held-up types that could benefit from the expected pace collapse?
Have Secret, Steel Raven, Tiernan, Dark Moon Rising, Financer, Impartiality and Galyx are all held up, along with Wild Thoughts who settles in mid-division.
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