3:22 Perth
This Class 4 handicap hurdle at Perth, part of the Go North Sea Pigeon Series, brings together a field of ten over an extended 2m on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals separated by just ten points, underlining a competitive heat where course form, trip suitability and trainer trends will carry significant weight. Overall the numbers point to a race that could be decided by how well the closers can bridge the gap to the uncontested leader.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is clear: a lone front-runner with little to pressure it, meaning one horse is likely to bowl along with an uncontested lead. With the vast majority of the field, including all five principals, confirmed as held-up types who produce their effort late, the race will almost certainly develop into a test of whether the leader can steal it or if the pack can reel him in from off the pace. The key question is whether the good ground and sharp Perth track will play to the strengths of those coming from the rear or allow the uncontested leader to dictate terms throughout.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Annie Agnew KTB Selection72/100
Annie Agnew is a smart performer who won over course and distance last time and has placed both previous runs at this trip. Dropping back from 2m4f looks a sensible move given her record at shorter. The trainer has a solid 20% strike rate at Perth from 41 runs and the horse herself is 1 from 5 at the track. Gerald Stephen Quinn and Mr D McGill combine with an excellent 6/10 (60%) record and A/E 2.10, while the jockey boasts a 33% strike rate at Perth from 12 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is 1 from 6 on good ground with three placings and arrives in excellent order after her recent C&D success.
-
2Tintintin69/100
Tintintin is a smart performer who has won three times at this trip and arrives with solid placed form on good ground. Dropping back from 2m4f today looks a sensible move given his record at shorter. The trainer maintains a strong 24% strike-rate at Perth from a large sample of 171 runs. Kielan Woods teams up with Fergal O'Brien, whose overall trainer-jockey record reads 25/95 (26%) with an A/E of 1.28. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is 2 from 8 on good with three placings and has no course form on record but brings strong credentials at the trip.
-
3Follow Charlie68/100
Follow Charlie is a smart performer with a solid record here, having won three of nine starts at Perth. Dropping back in trip today having last run over two and a half miles is interesting, though he has won at this distance in the past. The trainer's modest 7% strike-rate at the track from a big sample of 382 runs is a negative, though the 5lb claimer Murray Dodd improves the picture with a 33% strike rate at Perth from nine rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he boasts an excellent 3 from 7 on good with six placings overall and looks sure to be involved given his course prowess.
-
4Caballo de Guerra67/100
Caballo de Guerra is a smart performer who has shown consistent form in better company and arrives here off the back of a solid placed effort on good ground. He has already won over today's trip and holds a good record on this surface with one win and a placing from just two starts. Dropping in class is a positive. Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore have a 13/76 (17%) record with Jack Power, who himself has a 19% strike rate at Perth. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no course form on record but his consistency in stronger races makes him a major player.
-
5Try Them62/100
Try Them is a smart performer who has already shown his liking for this track and trip with a win here and another at the distance. He arrives in solid form after a recent fourth and has the benefit of a good strike rate for the yard at Perth plus a useful record on this ground. Patrick Neville and Brian Hughes combine with a 25/99 (25%) record and A/E 1.23. Usually held up and producing his effort late, though with medium confidence on that, he is 1 from 3 on good with two placings and 1 from 3 at the course itself, so nothing negative stands out from the numbers.
-
6Magnolia59/100
Magnolia is a smart performer who has placed on all three previous visits to Perth and looks sure to go well again. Dropping back in trip today having won twice over this distance earlier in her career, the trainer has a solid 16% strike-rate at the track from a big sample while the 5lb claimer is an interesting booking.
-
7El Jefe55/100
El Jefe is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at Perth without winning. He has a solid course record with two placings from five runs and has won over today's trip in the past though his strike-rate is modest overall. The trainer's 8% strike-rate at the track is offset by a positive A/E of 1.18.
-
8Pure Gold52/100
Pure Gold is a useful performer who has won at this trip and at Perth. Consistent rather than progressive of late with four placings from his last five starts yet he has failed to add to his tally in 32 runs over the past year. The yard's modest 9% strike-rate at the track is offset by a near-expected A/E of 0.96.
-
9Bathgate52/100
Bathgate is a smart performer who arrives in decent nick after a mixed bag last season. Dropping back to a trip he has placed at before though he has never won over it and his record on good ground is only modest. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here from 67 runs while this is the horse's first run at Perth.
-
10Nobotheratall50/100
Nobotheratall is a smart performer who showed useful form when winning at this trip earlier this season. He has since run below that level on his last two starts and was well held when seventh on his only previous visit to Perth. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate here adds a negative.
KTB verdict
The race revolves around whether the uncontested lead can be sustained or if the cluster of held-up performers can close the gap on good ground at Perth. Annie Agnew stands out as the KTB Selection, a smart performer with a recent course-and-distance win, strong placed form at the trip, and the benefit of a yard that strikes at 20% here. Her drop back from 2m4f looks ideal given her record at shorter, and the trainer-jockey combination adds further appeal. The main dangers are headed by Tintintin, whose three wins at this trip and trainer's strong Perth record make him a major threat, while Follow Charlie's course record cannot be ignored despite the yard's modest strike rate at the venue.
KTB Selection Annie Agnew
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 23 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Annie Agnew | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Tintintin | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Follow Charlie | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Caballo de Guerra | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Try Them | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Magnolia | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| El Jefe | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Pure Gold | 6/1 | William Hill |
| Bathgate | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Nobotheratall | 12/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:22 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the drop back in trip look sensible for both Annie Agnew and Tintintin?
Both have strong records at shorter trips compared to their most recent runs over 2m4f.
How many wins has Follow Charlie recorded at Perth?
Three wins from nine starts at Perth.
What is Caballo de Guerra's record on good ground?
One win and a placing from two starts on good.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Perth among those with runners in this race?
Fergal O'Brien with a 24% strike rate at Perth from 171 runs.
Which horse is the only confirmed front-runner in the field?
Nobotheratall tends to make the running or race on the pace.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
More from Kickthebookies