3:57 Perth
This Class 2 Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Steeple Chase at Perth brings together a field of nine high-class performers over 2m7f180y on good ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with The Real Whacker heading the numbers on 70, followed closely by Tamarind Bay on 66, Etalon on 65 and King of Answers on 57. Recent form is mixed across the principals and the strong pace likely to materialise will shape the outcome.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is expected to be strong and could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses. The Real Whacker and Etalon are both confirmed front-runners who tend to make the running or race prominently, while El Rio also likes to lead. This sets up a stiff test that will ask questions of those racing on the pace and hand an advantage to the patient hold-up performers such as Tamarind Bay, King of Answers, Caughtinyourtrance, Boston Rover, Breizh River and Walk On Quest.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1The Real Whacker KTB Selection70/100
The Real Whacker is a high-class performer who has placed on both starts at Perth and has already won over today's trip. Recent form of 256P-3 is a bit mixed and the first-time headgear is an unknown, though the yard's solid 16% strike rate at the track offers some encouragement. He goes well on good ground with two wins and four places from eleven attempts. Brian Hughes takes the ride for a trainer-jockey combination that shows a 25% strike rate with a positive A/E of 1.23 and LSP of +£9.40. As a confirmed front-runner he is likely to set the pace in a race where the strong gallop could collapse late.
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2Tamarind Bay66/100
Tamarind Bay is a high-class performer who has won at this trip and boasts a solid record on good ground with three wins and six places from nine runs. Only one previous run at Perth ended in an unseat but the yard's 30% strike-rate here offers encouragement. Recent form of 3-11U1 shows ability mixed with the occasional jumping lapse. The Bowen father-and-son team combine with a 17% strike rate though the A/E of 0.77 is slightly below par. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited to the strong pace that is anticipated.
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3Etalon65/100
Etalon is a high-class performer who has already won on his only previous visit to Perth. He arrives in solid form after a recent third and the yard's strong 34% strike rate here adds further appeal. The step up to 2m7f is an unknown and he is yet to place in three runs on good ground. Harry Skelton rides for Dan Skelton, a combination that records a 22% strike rate though the A/E of 0.90 and significant LSP deficit reflect a generally tougher task. As a front-runner he will be prominent early in what is likely to be a strongly-run race.
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4King of Answers57/100
King of Answers is a high-class performer who has already placed here over further and drops back to a trip he likes having won both starts at this distance. Recent form of 1412P shows solid ability mixed with the occasional off day, while the yard's modest 8% strike-rate at Perth suggests he will need to be at his best to win this. Going form on good ground is limited to just two runs without a placing. He drops in class and is a confirmed hold-up performer with high confidence in that run-style, which should be ideal given the expected strong pace that could collapse late.
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5Caughtinyourtrance55/100
Caughtinyourtrance is a high-class performer with strong recent form that includes two wins and two seconds from his last five starts. He has solid placed form on good ground and connections with Perth though his sole run here produced only a third. Dropping back from 3m1½f to today's trip asks a fresh question as he is zero from two at this distance. He steps up in class and is a hold-up performer.
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6Boston Rover55/100
Boston Rover is a high-class performer who arrives in solid form having won two of his last four starts and shown he handles this trip with a win from two attempts. He steps up in distance again today from 2m5f while making his first appearance at Perth, though the yard's strong 28% strike-rate from 819 runs here offers encouragement. Acts on good ground with a win and three places from six attempts. He is a hold-up performer and drops in class.
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7Breizh River54/100
Breizh River is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of 1-3213 and strong ratings to match. He has been placed on all four starts at Perth without winning and steps up in trip today having only been placed once in two tries at this distance. The yard's 5% strike rate from 20 runs at the track is a clear negative. He drops in class and is a hold-up performer.
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8El Rio53/100
El Rio is a high-class performer with a solid career record that includes two wins on good ground from seven starts. He steps up in trip today as a fresh question while making a first appearance at Perth. Trainer has only one run here so the sample is too small to judge. A front-runner, he steps up in class.
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9Walk On Quest49/100
Walk On Quest is a high-class performer who has run well at this track on two of his four visits, finishing second on both occasions. He has won over today's trip and boasts a solid record on good ground. The yard's modest 8% strike-rate at Perth is a slight negative. He steps up in class and is a hold-up performer.
KTB verdict
The Real Whacker is the KTB Selection. A high-class performer who has placed both starts at Perth and already won over today's trip, he brings the highest Fit Score and the yard's solid 16% strike rate at the track offers encouragement despite mixed recent form and the unknown first-time headgear. The strong pace that is likely to develop should suit the hold-up types but his proven course form and ability to race prominently give him every chance. Main dangers are Tamarind Bay, who has a fine record on good ground and benefits from the yard's excellent Perth record, and Etalon, who won on his only previous visit here and arrives in solid form for the Skelton team. King of Answers, dropping in class and with a trip he likes, cannot be ruled out either.
KTB Selection The Real Whacker
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 23 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| The Real Whacker | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Tamarind Bay | 3/1 | William Hill |
| Etalon | 6/1 | William Hill |
| King of Answers | 11/2 | William Hill |
| Caughtinyourtrance | 15/2 | William Hill |
| Boston Rover | 15/2 | Coral |
| Breizh River | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| El Rio | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Walk On Quest | 14/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:57 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven at Perth?
The Real Whacker has placed on both starts at Perth while Etalon has won on his only previous visit and Breizh River and Walk On Quest have been placed on all four and two of four visits respectively.
Who is likely to set the pace?
The Real Whacker, Etalon and El Rio are all front-runners who tend to make the running or race prominently.
Which runners are suited by the expected strong pace?
Hold-up horses Tamarind Bay, King of Answers, Caughtinyourtrance, Boston Rover, Breizh River and Walk On Quest are favoured by the strong pace that could collapse late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Perth in this field?
Dan Skelton has a 34% strike rate at Perth, ahead of Mickey Bowen's 30% and Gordon Elliott's 28%.
Which horses are dropping in class?
King of Answers, Boston Rover and Breizh River are all dropping in class.
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