4:18 Haydock
This Class 3 handicap over 6f 212y at Haydock on soft ground brings together an even field of eleven where official ratings sit close together and several runners arrive in decent nick. The KTB Fit scores range from 67 down to 40, highlighting a clutch of useful performers who have shown recent winning form or consistent placed efforts. With the majority unproven on soft ground, the race poses interesting questions about how the conditions and the uncontested pace will affect those with established course records.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, meaning the front-runner is likely to enjoy an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in on this soft surface. Most of the principals are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late, which sets up a clear test of whether they can bridge the gap to a horse given an easy time up front. Mr Noble is the one who can go forward and make the running or race prominently, potentially challenging for that lead or sitting just off it. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can maintain the advantage or if one of the patient runners can quicken effectively in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Aurora Majesty KTB Selection67/100
Aurora Majesty is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip from twelve starts and arrives in decent form after a recent win. The four-year-old is held up and usually produces its effort late, so the likely uncontested lead could play against it, though the KTB Fit score of 67 identifies it as the one to beat. First time at Haydock and no experience on soft ground both represent unknowns rather than clear negatives. Trainer Archie Watson has a solid 12% strike rate at Haydock from 108 runs while jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin boasts a 17% strike rate at the track from 63 rides with an A/E of 1.54. Recent form figures read 0-0731 and the horse drops back to a distance at which it has been successful on multiple occasions.
-
2Yorkshire60/100
Yorkshire is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing in the first four on all four visits including a second and two thirds. The six-year-old is dropping in class and steps back from a mile to a trip he has won over four times from seventeen attempts, though he has never tackled soft ground. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he will need to find a way to close on the expected lone leader. Trainer Edward Bethell has an 18% strike rate at Haydock from 96 runs with an A/E of 1.06 while Daniel Tudhope is in the saddle with recent form figures of -09230 and a KTB Fit score of 60.
-
3Storm Free59/100
Storm Free is a useful performer who arrives in good order after two wins from his last three starts. The four-year-old has no experience of soft ground and makes his first start at Haydock, though the yard's 14% strike rate from 83 runs here offers some encouragement. He is held up and usually produces its effort late with high confidence in that run-style. The trip is no problem as he has already won three times over today's distance, and recent form figures of -60611 underpin a KTB Fit score of 59. Trainer James Tate teams up with Hector Crouch who has a 17% strike rate at Haydock.
-
4Bobby Bennu58/100
Bobby Bennu is a useful performer who has run to a solid level on his better days and has placed here before. The five-year-old has won at today's trip but is unproven on soft ground and his recent form has been patchy with figures of 0-4200. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he will be aiming to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time. Trainer Roger Varian has an 18% strike rate at Haydock from 320 runs while jockey Jack Mitchell has a 17% strike rate at the track from 118 rides with an A/E of 1.12 and a KTB Fit score of 58.
-
5Mr Noble57/100
Mr Noble is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with two seconds and two wins from his last five starts. The three-year-old has already won over today's trip and holds strong course connections through his trainer who strikes at 12% here from a large sample of 776 runs. First-time headgear is now added while the going remains an unknown on just six career runs. He is the one who tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could see him contest the likely lone lead in a shape that favours those up front. Recent form reads -23213 and he carries a KTB Fit score of 57.
-
6Ata Rangi55/100
Ata Rangi is a fair performer who has won two of three starts at Haydock and also has a solid record at this trip with two wins from six attempts. He has shown he handles soft ground with a win and two places from three runs, the yard posts a 19% strike rate here from a big sample of 291 runs, and the horse arrives in reasonable form with a KTB Fit of 55.
-
7Anyasi53/100
Anyasi is a useful performer who has won two of his four starts and arrives in decent form after a recent win. He has already shown he handles soft ground and the step back up to this trip looks fair enough given his pedigree, though the wide draw in stall 11 is the main negative. Trainer has a solid 18% strike rate at Haydock and the KTB Fit score is 53.
-
8Great Dream51/100
Great Dream is a fair performer who has won on soft ground and at today's trip. Recent form is patchy with a best of sixth on his last two starts and he now makes his first visit to Haydock while the trainer is still seeking a first course winner from ten runs here. The KTB Fit score stands at 51.
-
9U Sure Do45/100
U Sure Do is a fair performer who has been generally out of form this season but showed some spark when second of 11 over course and distance on soft ground last month. He steps back up in trip having won once at this distance from seven attempts, though recent efforts suggest he needs to improve to be competitive here, and the trainer has an 8% strike rate from 1569 runs at Haydock with a KTB Fit of 45.
-
10Scutari43/100
Scutari is a fair 3-year-old who has already shown he can win at this trip. He has won one of his three starts over today's distance and arrives in decent form after a recent success while the trainer has a solid 12% strike rate from 776 runs at Haydock. The small sample on soft ground leaves that side of things unknown and the KTB Fit score is 43.
-
11Spaceman40/100
Spaceman is a fair performer who has won once and placed twice from five starts, including a win at today's trip. He arrives in solid form after two wins in his last three outings yet faces a clear negative from the yard's poor record at Haydock with no winners from nine runs. The going remains an unknown on this lightly raced profile and the KTB Fit score is 40.
KTB verdict
Aurora Majesty stands out as the KTB Selection with a top Fit score of 67 and the profile of a useful performer in decent form after a recent win at this trip. The unknowns of first-time Haydock and soft ground are not viewed as clear negatives, and the combination of Archie Watson's solid course record and Pierre-Louis Jamin's strong strike rate at the track add to the appeal. Main dangers are headed by Yorkshire with his consistent placed form at Haydock, Storm Free who brings two recent wins, and Mr Noble who could make the running in a race set up for the leader. Bobby Bennu cannot be dismissed on his placed effort here and useful best days.
KTB Selection Aurora Majesty
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:05 UTC, 25 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Aurora Majesty | 17/2 | Bet Victor |
| Yorkshire | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Storm Free | 6/1 | Midnite |
| Bobby Bennu | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Mr Noble | 10/3 | Midnite |
| Ata Rangi | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Anyasi | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Great Dream | 66/1 | Bet Victor |
| U Sure Do | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Scutari | 20/1 | Bet Victor |
| Spaceman | 8/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:18 Haydock. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Haydock racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Haydock results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only one likely to make the running or race prominently?
Mr Noble tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence in that run-style.
How many of the principals are held-up types who usually produce their effort late?
Four of the five principals – Aurora Majesty, Yorkshire, Storm Free and Bobby Bennu – are held up and usually produce their effort late.
Which runner has the strongest course record at Haydock?
Ata Rangi has won two of three starts at Haydock.
Who adds first-time headgear in this race?
Mr Noble runs in first-time headgear.
Which horse showed spark when second over course and distance on soft ground last month?
U Sure Do was second of 11 over course and distance on soft ground last month.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies