3:07 Catterick
This Class 6 handicap over 1m7f189y at Catterick on good to firm ground features a field of ten limited performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by Sugarpiehoneybunch on a mark of 52, with Regally Blonde, Fairydale, Marlena's Prince and Neddies Boy all closely matched on figures between 51 and 45. Overall the KTB numbers point to a race lacking depth, with several runners carrying question marks over the step up in trip or their record at the track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, as one clear front-runner is expected to enjoy an uncontested lead with little to pressure it early. Fairydale is the most likely to take up that role from draw 2 given its front-running style, while Neddies Boy can race prominently from the inside stall. This setup suggests the race could be won or lost from the front, posing a stiff task for the numerous held-up runners in the field who will need to come from off the pace to reel in an unchallenged leader.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sugarpiehoneybunch KTB Selection54/100
Sugarpiehoneybunch is a limited class performer who has won twice at Catterick from 12 runs and also has a win at today's trip. She showed improved form when scoring at this track on her penultimate start yet ran poorly last time. The yard's modest 7% strike rate here from 69 runs adds a note of caution. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need to overcome the uncontested lead likely to be set in this race. She has a win from three runs on good to firm and her course record of two wins from 12 starts makes her of definite interest back at a venue where she has prospered before.
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2Regally Blonde52/100
Regally Blonde is a limited performer who has shown just enough to win a couple of times at this trip. She has two wins from ten runs on good to firm so the ground is no problem and she arrives in reasonable form after a recent Catterick fifth. The yard is still seeking its first winner here from six attempts. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be aiming to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may not be challenged early. Her record of no course form on record is a slight concern but the recent effort at the track offers some encouragement.
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3Fairydale49/100
Fairydale is a limited performer who has shown some consistency without winning. She has placed both starts at Catterick and is competitive on good to firm, though the step up to nearly 2m asks a fresh question. Trainer Tim Easterby has a solid 12% strike rate here from a big sample, while the 1000/9129 (11%) trainer and jockey record with an A/E of 0.84 is respectable. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, she is ideally placed to take advantage of the lone leader pace shape and set an uncontested lead that could prove hard for closers to peg back.
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4Marlena's Prince47/100
Marlena's Prince has shown modest placed form in three of his six starts but remains limited and lightly raced overall. He steps up markedly in trip today as a fresh question while wearing headgear for the first time. The yard's modest 9% strike rate at Catterick from a huge sample offers no particular encouragement, as shown by the 29/512 (6%) trainer and jockey record with an A/E of 0.82. Unproven on good to firm ground with no course form on record, he will need to improve for the new trip, headgear and surface if he is to feature in a race where the pace may not suit those coming from further back.
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5Neddies Boy47/100
Neddies Boy is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts and steps up markedly in trip today. The move to 1m7f poses a fresh question and his only run on good to firm ground brought no joy. Trainer Daragh Bourke has a 13% strike rate from 15 runs at Catterick while jockey Shane Gray is making his first appearance at the track, though the 6/15 (40%) trainer and jockey record with an A/E of 2.52 is positive. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he could be one of the few to apply pressure to the expected lone leader, though his recent form of 700-86 offers limited encouragement.
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6Lady Phoebe45/100
Lady Phoebe is a limited performer who has shown little for her new yard this season and remains winless after 32 starts. She has been below form on her last two starts here and is unplaced in all four runs on good to firm. Dropping back from 2m7f raises a fresh question but adds little encouragement given her overall profile, with the trainer's 9% strike rate at Catterick from 32 runs and the jockey's modest 4% strike rate from 320 rides offering no particular boost.
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7Soham's Roger45/100
Soham's Roger is a limited performer who has shown little since a modest fourth on debut. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 16 runs at Catterick, and with no course form on record plus only one unplaced run on good to firm, he looks up against it from stall 9.
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8Muhib39/100
Muhib is a limited horse who has been consistent without winning, placing in three of his last six starts and showing a habit of running into the frame at this track. He has been competitive on good to firm ground but remains winless, and today he steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here from 30 runs while the jockey has only three rides at the course.
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9Star of Jupiter39/100
Star of Jupiter is a limited performer who has been placed on all three starts at Catterick without winning. He has shown consistent competitiveness on good to firm ground and at this trip, though he remains winless in both. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track adds a note of caution, despite the jockey's solid 18% strike rate from 156 rides at Catterick.
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10Queenies Pal32/100
Queenies Pal is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and finished no better than fifth on her last four outings. She has placed once in a single run at Catterick and handles good to firm ground, but steps up markedly in trip today for a yard with a modest 8% strike rate here. The longer distance is an unknown that could suit or expose her further.
KTB verdict
Sugarpiehoneybunch is the KTB Selection. A limited class performer, she has won twice at Catterick from 12 runs and also has a win at today's trip, with her penultimate start here showing improved form before a poor latest effort. The combination of course success, a previous win over the distance and the ability to race from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time makes her the one to beat. Her main dangers are likely to be Fairydale, who can set the pace from its front-running style and has placed both times at the track, and Regally Blonde, who arrives in reasonable form with a good record on good to firm.
KTB Selection Sugarpiehoneybunch
This is the narrative read of the 3:07 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Catterick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the lone leader pace shape?
Fairydale is best suited as the front-runner who can take an uncontested lead, while Neddies Boy can race prominently to apply pressure.
How many wins has Sugarpiehoneybunch recorded at Catterick?
Two wins from 12 runs at the track.
Which runners are stepping up markedly in trip?
Marlena's Prince, Neddies Boy, Soham's Roger, Muhib and Queenies Pal are all stepping up markedly in trip.
Who has the strongest trainer and jockey combination record at Catterick according to the supplied stats?
Daragh Bourke and Shane Gray with a 6/15 (40%) record and A/E 2.52.
Which horse has placed on all three of its starts at Catterick?
Star of Jupiter has been placed on all three starts at Catterick without winning.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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